Thursday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Mahoning, Turf Paradise stakes

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Thursday, April 3 at Mahoning Valley and Turf Paradise, along with horses to play in Pick 6 and Super High 5 carryovers at Hawthorne.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• New Players $200 Sign-Up Bonus: Open your TwinSpires.com account using the offer code BET200 to start earning a $200 bonus.
• Fraser Downs $10 Money Back: Receive up to $10 back on your first single-horse win bet if your horse runs second in Races 3, 4, and 5 at Fraser Downs each Thursday.
• Kentucky Derby Future Wager Pool 6 Bet/Get: Wager at least $50+ during the duration of Kentucky Derby Future Wager Pool 6 to receive 20% cash back (up to $100), along with an invitation to an exclusive Kentucky Derby Week Bet/Get offer.

Today’s TwinSpires tournaments include:

• $200 Mahoning Valley Feeder to 4/5 Blue Grass KDBC Qualifier
• $200 Charles Town Feeder to 4/11 Keeneland KDBC/G1G Qualifier

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Mahoning Valley: Race 7: Howard B. Noonan S. (six furlongs on dirt, 3:03 p.m. ET)

#1 Boots Malone (6-5) has been terrific in his last two starts sprinting six furlongs at Mahoning Valley. On Nov. 27, he led all the way to win an allowance for non-winners of two races by 12 1/2 lengths. Then on March 18, he wired an allowance for non-winners of three races by half a dozen lengths.

Both of those victories were achieved with ease, and the latter yielded a strong 99 Brisnet Speed rating, the highest number in the Howard B. Noonan field. We’ll count on Boots Malone to record a third straight win, betting him over stakes winner #4 Superwolf (9-5) in a large exacta.

Selections

• #1 Boots Malone (6-5)
• #4 Superwolf (9-5)
• #5 Lo Bug (3-1)

Wagers

• $30 Exacta: 1 with 4

Turf Paradise: Race 7: Cactus Flower S. (6 1/2 furlongs on dirt, 6:51 p.m. ET)

At one time or another, #4 Lucky Burglar (2-1) has defeated six of the seven fillies and mares she’ll face in the Cactus Flower. Her 3-for-4 lifetime record includes a four-length romp in a $35,000 allowance optional claimer at Turf Paradise last month, for which she earned an 88 Brisnet Speed rating that tops the Cactus Flower field.

A win bet on Lucky Burglar is in order. We’ll also play her on top of an exacta using recent Turf Paradise $20,000 allowance optional claiming winner #5 Sharp Attitude (3-1) for second place.

Selections

• #4 Lucky Burglar (2-1)
• #5 Sharp Attitude (3-1)
• #3 Lotsa Lace (5-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #4 Lucky Burglar
• $10 Exacta: 4 with 5
  Total: $30

Turf Paradise: Race 9: Cactus Wren S. (6 1/2 furlongs on dirt, 7:49 p.m. ET)

#7 Katar (3-1) has been freshened since finishing sixth in a $50,000 allowance optional claimer at Santa Anita last May. He’d previously dominated three straight starts at Turf Paradise, even winning the 2024 Cactus Wren by 8 3/4 lengths.

Returning to Turf Paradise should allow Katar to spring a mild upset over #1 Pop d’Oro (9-5), who has won four in a row at Turf Paradise for hot trainer Robertino Diodoro. Let’s place a win bet and an exacta accordingly.

Selections

• #7 Katar (3-1)
• #1 Pop d’Oro (9-5)
• #4 Code Five (4-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #7 Katar
• $10 Exacta: 7 with 1
  Total: $30

Carryover Watch

Hawthorne: Race 2: $1,141 Pick 6 carryover (4:05 p.m. ET)
Hawthorne: Race 7: $2,912 Super High 5 carryover (6:13 p.m. ET)

There are a couple of carryovers worth pursuing on the third day of the Hawthorne meet.

The $1 Pick 6 has tossed up a $1,141 prize pool, while the carryover for the $1 Super High 5 is even larger at $2,912.

The key race to decipher is Race 7, a five-furlong dirt maiden special weight for Illinois-bred fillies and mares. It’s the final leg of the Pick 6 and the race on which Super High 5 betting is offered.

An eight-horse field has turned out. Pick 6 bettors can feel confident using only two: #2 Arrivedercci (2-1) and #8 Smoked (9-5). Both hail from the high-percentage barn of Larry Rivelli, the leading trainer at Hawthorne in 2024.

Arrivedercci has already run once. In a non-state-restricted maiden special weight sprinting 4 1/2 furlongs at Hawthorne last year, she finished third by one length. Now she’s adding Lasix and tackling the state-restricted ranks for her comeback. Rivelli wins at a 27% rate with horses returning from layoffs of 90 days or more, and at a 32% rate with horses racing on Lasix for the first time, so Arrivedercci figures to run a competitive race in her return.

As for Smoked, she’s an unraced daughter of Adios Charlie, who sires a decent 13% winners from first-time starters. Rivelli strikes at a 32% rate with horses debuting in maiden special weights, and nine workouts at Fair Grounds and Hawthorne this year should have Smoked primed for a strong first start.

If you’re betting the Super High 5, we recommend building tickets around Arrivedercci and Smoked, counting on one to win and the other to finish in the top three.

The other horses we’ll mix into the top three are #1 Lions Law (5-1), who has hit the board three times competing at this class level, and the first-time starter #3 Disguised Devil (6-1), who enters off a bullet five-furlong workout in :59 2/5 at Hawthorne.

• $1 Super High 5: 2,8 with 2,8 with 1 with 3,4 with 3,4,5,6,7 ($16)
• $1 Super High 5: 2,8 with 1 with 2,8 with 3,4 with 3,4,5,6,7 ($16)
• $1 Super High 5: 2,8 with 2,8 with 3 with 1 with 4,5,6,7 ($8)
• $1 Super High 5: 2,8 with 3 with 2,8 with 1 with 4,5,6,7 ($8)
  Total: $48

Good luck!