Thursday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Plays for Colonial Downs

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Thursday, March 13 at Colonial Downs, along with a single for the $2,913 Pick 6 carryover at Fair Grounds.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• New Players $200 Sign-Up Bonus: Open your TwinSpires.com account using the offer code BET200 to start earning a $200 bonus.
• 8x Points at Colonial Downs: Receive 8x reward points on all bets at Colonial Downs (excluding show bets) on Thursday and Friday.
• Fraser Downs $10 Money Back: Receive up to $10 back on your first single-horse win bet if your horse runs second in Races 3, 4, and 5 at Fraser Downs each Thursday.
• Cheltenham $10 Money Back: Receive $10 back on your first single-horse win bet if your horse runs second or third in all eligible races at Cheltenham Racecourse from Tuesday through Friday.

Today’s TwinSpires tournaments include:

• $250 Fair Grounds Feeder to 3/22 Louisiana Derby/Jeff Ruby Steaks KDBC Qualifier
• $200 Turfway Feeder to 3/15 Virginia Derby/Oaklawn KDBC Qualifier

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Colonial Downs: Race 1: $50,000 Maiden Claiming (seven furlongs on dirt, 12:35 p.m. ET)

#1 Tethered Soul (5-2) finished midpack when debuting in a 6 1/2-furlong maiden special weight at Churchill Downs in September. It turns out he was facing quality competition—runner-up I Got Game has since won the Ozark S. at Oaklawn, while the victorious Big Much and third-place finisher Admiral Dennis have run well at the allowance level.

Tethered Soul hasn’t raced since his debut, but he’s been gelded and is adding blinkers and Lasix for his return at an easier class level, and those changes may trigger improvement. Throw in the fact trainer Fausto Gutierrez wins at a 20% rate with horses returning from layoffs of 90 days or more, and Tethered Soul is a logical win contender.

Let’s single Tethered Soul to start double and Pick 3 wagers.

Selections

• #1 Tethered Soul (5-2)
• #5 Free Dance (7-5)
• #2 Never Till Now (10-1)

Wagers

• $20 Double: 1 with 1
• $10 Pick 3: 1 with 1 with 2
  Total: $30

Colonial Downs: Race 2: $20,000 Claiming (seven furlongs on dirt, 1:05 p.m. ET)

#1 Golden Philly (1-1) is an excellent fit for this $20,000 claimer. She’s wired her last two tries at this class level by 4 1/4 lengths and 14 1/4 lengths, with the latter victory yielding a career-best 88 Brisnet Speed rating.

Golden Philly misfired in a 1 1/16-mile $40,000 claimer last time out, finishing sixth, but dropping down in class and distance can produce a rebound for high-percentage trainer Jamie Ness. We’ll single Golden Philly in our double and Pick 3 wagers from Race 1, then use her to start a new double as well.

Selections

• #1 Golden Philly (1-1)
• #3 Blessed Candy (2-1)
• #5 My Dear Antonia (5-2)

Wagers

• $20 Double: 1 with 2

Colonial Downs: Race 3: Allowance (5 1/2 furlongs on dirt, 1:35 p.m. ET)

After recording a trio of top-four finishes against non-state-restricted stakes competition, #2 Crab Daddy (7-5) is tackling an allowance for Virginia-restricted three-year-olds. The last time Crab Daddy started in a race with state-based eligibility conditions, he crushed the Pennsylvania Nursery S. for Pennsylvania-breds by 3 3/4 lengths.

Crab Daddy owns the four highest Brisnet Speed ratings in Thursday’s field, and it’s not even close, so victory on Thursday is likely for this Triple Crown nominee. We’ll single Crab Daddy to conclude our double and Pick 3 wagers, then add in an exacta using #4 Ballad of Warrior (2-1) for second place.

Selections

• #2 Crab Daddy (7-5)
• #4 Ballad of Warrior (2-1)
• #3 Schrader (15-1)

Wagers

• $15 Exacta: 2 with 4

Carryover Watch

Fair Grounds: Race 5: $2,913 Pick 6 carryover (3:45 p.m. ET)

No one solved the $1 Pick 6 at Fair Grounds on Wednesday, resulting in a non-jackpot $2,913 carryover for Thursday’s card.

A challenging sequence is on the agenda. The six races have drawn a total of 63 horses (averaging about 10.5 per race), and there are 1,204,632 possible outcomes before scratches. Finding a viable single to build tickets around isn’t easy.

That said, a possible single can be found in Race 7, a $10,000 starter optional claimer for fillies and mares racing about one mile on turf. A 13-horse field has entered, though three horses are also-eligible or main-track-only entrants who are expected to scratch.

Among the 10 horses in the main body of the field, #4 Berlaine (7-2) looks like a standout. The four-year-old filly has won four straight races at Fair Grounds by margins of eight lengths, 7 1/4 lengths, 9 1/2 lengths, and 1 3/4 lengths. She’s led gate-to-wire in three straight $10,000 starter optional claimers running one mile or farther and is 3-for-3 since being claimed by hot trainer Rylee Magnon, a 33% winner at Fair Grounds this meet.

Some bettors may hesitate to single Berlaine since all of her recent victories have come on dirt. But she also boasts two wins and two thirds from five starts on turf. Her latest grass race came last summer in a 7 1/2-furlong allowance at Louisiana Downs; after tracking the pace in third place, she took over to prevail by half a length.

Berlaine has also won over the Fair Grounds lawn. In a $30,000 maiden claimer racing about one mile last February, she pressed a modest pace before pulling clear to win by two lengths.

Returning to the Fair Grounds turf shouldn’t be an issue for Berlaine. She brings strong Brisnet Speed ratings to the table and figures to work out a favorable trip on or near the lead under hot jockey Devin Magnon, a 21% winner at Fair Grounds this meet. For bettors in need of a Pick 6 single, Berlaine is a logical option with compelling credentials.

Good luck!