Thursday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Stakes at Mahoning, Turf Paradise

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Thursday, March 20 at Mahoning Valley, Turf Paradise, and Turfway Park, along with analysis of carryovers at Fair Grounds and Gulfstream Park.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• New Players $200 Sign-Up Bonus: Open your TwinSpires.com account using the offer code BET200 to start earning a $200 bonus.
• Fraser Downs $10 Money Back: Receive up to $10 back on your first single-horse win bet if your horse runs second in Races 3, 4, and 5 at Fraser Downs each Thursday.

Today’s TwinSpires tournaments include:

• $250 Fair Grounds Feeder to 3/29 Arkansas Derby KDBC Qualifier
• $250 Turfway Feeder to 3/22 Louisiana Derby/Jeff Ruby Steaks KDBC Qualifier

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Mahoning Valley: Race 7: Southern Park S. (six furlongs on dirt, 3:03 p.m. ET)

#9 Lo Bug (9-5) has won three straight allowances at Mahoning Valley with sharp Brisnet Speed ratings. Last time out, she proved best by a length over #8 Belle Bottoms (2-1).

Belle Bottoms also owns strong Brisnet Speed ratings, and she beat Lo Bug in a Dec. 11 allowance at Mahoning.

Let’s box Lo Bug and Belle Bottoms in an exacta, then add a trifecta using #3 Wonder World (12-1) and #4 My Kinda Party (9-2) for third place. 

Selections

• #9 Lo Bug (9-5)
• #8 Belle Bottoms (2-1)
• #3 Wonder World (12-1)

Wagers

• $10 Exacta: box 8,9 ($20)
• $2.50 Trifecta: 8,9 with 8,9 with 3,4 ($10)
  Total: $30

Turf Paradise: Race 4: Arizona Stallion S. (six furlongs on dirt, 5:22 p.m. ET)

#5 Time to Fly (5-2) posted a field-best 87 Brisnet Speed rating when trouncing a six-furlong handicap at Turf Paradise last month by 4 1/4 lengths over #2 Ez Iz Onzaway (3-1). There’s a good chance they’ll reprise that order of finish in the Arizona Stallion S.

#3 Squeeze the Day (7-2) is another logical contender after winning a six-furlong handicap at Turf Paradise by four lengths. He hasn’t run quite as fast as the favorites on the Brisnet Speed rating scale, but a top-two finish isn’t out of the question.

Let’s bet exacta and trifecta tickets accordingly.

Selections

• #5 Time to Fly (5-2)
• #2 Ez Iz Onzaway (3-1)
• #3 Squeeze the Day (7-2)

Wagers

• $12 Exacta: 5 with 2
• $8 Exacta: 5 with 3
• $6 Trifecta: 5 with 2 with 3
• $4 Trifecta: 5 with 3 with 2
  Total: $30

Turfway Park: Race 2: $50,000 Starter Allowance (six furlongs on Tapeta, 1:35 p.m. ET)

#7 Will Not Be Swayed (1-1) owns the four highest Brisnet Speed ratings in this field. She hasn’t posted a number lower than 83, and she peaked with an 87 when rallying to finish fourth by 1 1/2 lengths in the six-furlong Matron (G3) on turf at Aqueduct last fall.

Will Not Be Swayed has put together a solid work tab in advance of her sophomore debut and is slated to race with Lasix for the first time, a 34% winning move for trainer Brad Cox. She looks ready to win her comeback over #1 Always Practical (6-1) and #3 Meucci’s Revenge (7-2).

Selections

• #7 Will Not Be Swayed (1-1)
• #1 Always Practical (6-1)
• #3 Meucci’s Revenge (7-2)

Wagers

• $15 Exacta: 7 with 1,3 ($30)

Carryover Watch

Fair Grounds: Race 4: $5,611 Pick 6 carryover (3:15 p.m. ET)

The $1 Pick 6 at Fair Grounds has gone unsolved in recent days, producing a $5,611 carryover for Thursday’s card.

Trainer Joe Sharp has been hot during this closing week of the Fair Grounds meet. Since Tuesday, he’s gone 3-for-7 (43%), with another two starters cracking the trifecta.

Sharp can pick up another win or two on Thursday. In Race 5, the second leg of the Pick 6, he’s entered two horses: #2 Betty’s Dance (3-1) and #6 Kissin Riches (7-2), the top two choices on the morning line.

Race 5 is a $50,000 maiden optional claimer taking place over 7 1/2 furlongs on turf. Betty’s Dance has hit the board in a couple of recent starts sprinting 5 1/2 furlongs over this course and class level, and she has the pedigree to handle stretching out a quarter-mile in distance. Meanwhile, Kissin Riches is dropping in class after hitting the board in three straight maiden special weights. One or the other ought to prevail on Thursday.

Sharp also trains #2 Front and Silver (7-2) in Race 7, a $12,500 allowance optional claimer for Louisiana-bred fillies and mares racing one mile on dirt. Front and Silver exits a third-place finish over this track and class level, a race from which she was claimed by Sharp. Sharp wins at a 20% rate with horses running for the first time following a claim, and Fair Grounds’ leading jockey Jose Ortiz is picking up the mount, so it’s not hard to envision Front and Silver improving enough to visit the winner’s circle.

Gulfstream Park: Race 9: $4,654 Super High 5 carryover (5:01 p.m. ET)

The final race on Thursday at Gulfstream Park is highlighted by a $4,654 carryover in the $1 Super High 5.

The afternoon finale is Race 9, a $20,000 allowance optional claimer for older Florida-breds racing one mile on turf. We’re keen to support morning-line favorite #7 Hot Blooded (9-5).

Hot Blooded won a Tapeta contest over this class level for trainer Mike Maker three starts back. That followed a series of sharp showings on turf, including a triumph in a non-state-restricted $50,000 claimer racing one mile at Gulfstream last spring.

Hot Blooded was claimed out of his Tapeta win by trainer Carlos David, who proceeded to start the seven-year-old gelding in a couple more Tapeta races. Then Maker claimed Hot Blooded back, and Thursday’s race marks Hot Blooded’s first start since returning to Maker’s care.

Switching back to turf for a state-restricted $20,000 allowance optional claimer can send Hot Blooded back to the winner’s circle. We recommend keying him on top in the Super High 5.

Good luck!