Thursday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Ticket for Turfway’s $3,719 Super High 5

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Thursday, March 6 at Turfway Park, including a ticket for the $3,719 Super High 5 carryover.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• New Players $200 Sign-Up Bonus: Open your TwinSpires.com account using the offer code BET200 to start earning a $200 bonus.
• 8x Points at Fair Grounds: Receive 8x reward points on all bets at Fair Grounds (excluding show bets) each racing day from March 1 through March 9.
• Fraser Downs $10 Money Back: Receive up to $10 back on your first single-horse win bet if your horse runs second in Races 3, 4, and 5 at Fraser Downs each Thursday.

Today’s TwinSpires tournaments include:

• $200 Fair Grounds Feeder to 3/15 Virginia Derby/Oaklawn KDBC Qualifier
• $200 Turfway Feeder to 3/8 Tampa Bay Derby KDBC Qualifier

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Turfway Park: Race 1: $15,000 Maiden Claiming (six furlongs on Tapeta, 5:55 p.m. ET)

#1 Mom’s Cheesecake (15-1) is an interesting longshot. She misfired in a $30,000 maiden claimer at Turfway last time out, finishing 11th. But two starts back she ran fourth against a large field in a $50,000 maiden claimer at Turfway, beaten only 4 1/2 lengths.

Mom’s Cheesecake is eligible to bounce back while dropping into a $15,000 maiden claimer. Let’s bet her to win, then play her in the exacta with logical favorite #6 Take Wings (7-5).

Selections

• #1 Mom’s Cheesecake (15-1)
• #6 Take Wings (7-5)
• #7 Ceebee (5-1)

Wagers

• $15 to win on #1 Mom’s Cheesecake
• $10 Exacta: 6 with 1
• $5 Exacta: 1 with 6
  Total: $30

Turfway Park: Race 4: Maiden Special Weight (six furlongs on Tapeta, 7:25 p.m. ET)

First-time starter #1 Handsintheair (5-1) has put together a sharp work tab at Turfway Park highlighted by a trio of bullet workouts, most recently half a mile in :47 1/5. 

Trainer Josie Carroll strikes at a 23% rate with horses debuting in maiden special weights, and jockey Rafael Hernandez (a 50% winner teaming up with Carroll over the last two months) is named to ride, so there are strong trainer and jockey stats in Handsintheair’s corner. Let’s bet her to win.

Selections

• #1 Handsintheair (5-1)
• #10 Don’t Call Me Babe (3-1)
• #6 Fozzer (4-1)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #1 Handsintheair

Turfway Park: Race 8: Maiden Special Weight (six furlongs on Tapeta, 9:25 p.m. ET)

#2 Spinning Glory (6-1) looks ready to win on debut. She’s posted a couple of bullet workouts at Turfway Park (including half a mile from the starting gate in :48) for trainer Larry Rivelli, a 38% winner at Turfway since December and a 32% winner with horses debuting in maiden special weights.

If Spinning Glory’s 6-1 morning-line odds hold up, she’s worthy of a large win bet.

Selections

• #2 Spinning Glory (6-1)
• #1 Listen and Learn (7-2)
• #4 Top (8-1)

Wagers

• $35 to win on #2 Spinning Glory

Carryover Watch

Turfway Park: Race 10: $3,719 Super High 5 carryover (10:25 p.m. ET)

The final race on Thursday’s card at Turfway Park features a $3,719 carryover in the $1 Super High 5.

The evening finale is Race 10, a $7,500 claimer for horses who have never won two races. A 12-horse field has entered the 6 1/2-furlong Tapeta sprint, so before scratches there are 95,040 possible Super High 5 outcomes to consider.

Despite the large field, the Super High 5 doesn’t appear unsolvable. That’s because two of the favorites, #6 Xander (3-1) and #3 Fire Wire (5-1), bring solid credentials to the table.

Xander dominated a six-furlong Tapeta maiden special weight at Presque Isle Downs last summer by seven lengths, earning a 73 Brisnet Speed rating. He’s run even faster in two tries at Turfway since December, finishing eighth in a $30,000 claimer and sixth in a $15,000 claimer while earning Brisnet Speed ratings of 77 and 75. Xander is a serious win threat while descending to the $7,500 level for trainer Christopher Davis, a 31% winner with horses dropping multiple levels down the class ladder.

Fire Wire likewise brings strong Brisnet Speed ratings to the table. He posted a 75 when fourth in a $16,000-$14,000 claimer and a 77 when running seventh in a $5,000 starter allowance. Both of those efforts came sprinting six furlongs at Turfway Park this year. Tackling a $7,500 claimer should suit Fire Wire just fine.

We recommend keying Xander on top in the Super High 5 while counting on Fire Wire to finish second. Then we can spread deeper underneath and still keep our ticket affordable.

Who should you emphasize for the minor awards? Certainly #1 General Issue (5-1), who is dropping in class after finishing 10th in a $30,000 claimer and seventh in a $15,000 claimer at Turfway. #7 Fly By Night (4-1) is fast enough to challenge on his best day for high-percentage trainer Wesley Ward, who wins at a 38% rate in claiming races. And don’t underestimate #12 Glyne Beach (12-1), who ran second over this exact track, distance, and class level two starts back.

Here’s how we recommend betting the Super High 5:

• $1 Super High 5: 6 with 3 with 1,7,12 with 1,2,7,12 with 1,2,5,7,10,11,12 ($45)

Good luck!