Thursday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Turfway’s $2,271 Super High 5 carryover

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Thursday, Jan. 30 at Turfway Park, including a ticket for the $2,271 Super High 5 carryover.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• New Players $200 Sign-Up Bonus: Open your TwinSpires.com account using the offer code BET200 to start earning a $200 bonus.
• Fair Grounds 15% Odds Boost: Receive a 15% boost (up to $25 per day) on your winning single-horse win wagers at Fair Grounds each Thursday in January.
• Woodbine Mohawk 15% Trifecta Boost: Receive a 15% boost (up to $25 per day) on your winning trifecta wagers at Woodbine Mohawk each Monday, Thursday, and Friday through January.

Today’s TwinSpires tournaments include:

• $160 Fair Grounds Feeder to 2/8 Sam F. Davis/Oaklawn KDBC Qualifier
• $200 Turfway Feeder to 2/1 Oaklawn KDBC Qualifier

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Turfway Park: Race 5: Maiden Special Weight (one mile on Tapeta, 7:55 p.m. ET)

#1 Bracelet (7-5) ran strongly when debuting over this track, distance, and class level on Jan. 2, finishing second by three-quarters of a length while earning an 80 Brisnet Speed rating.

The par winning Brisnet Speed rating for Thursday’s conditions is 78, so Bracelet has a strong chance to graduate in her second start for high-percentage trainer Brad Cox, a 26% winner with second-time starters and a 30% winner with horses running long for the second time.

Let’s single Bracelet to start a double wager and bet her to win for good measure.

Selections

• #1 Bracelet (7-5)
• #12 Avery’s Dream (15-1)
• #11 Princess Irene (7-2)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #1 Bracelet
• $20 Double: 1 with 1
  Total: $40

Turfway Park: Race 6: $16,000 Claiming (six furlongs on Tapeta, 8:25 p.m. ET)

#1 Summer of Mischief (9-5) is rarely beaten to the early lead. Last time out, she carved out the pace in a $25,000 allowance optional claimer sprinting 6 1/2 furlongs at Turfway before tiring in the homestretch to finish seventh.

Dropping in class for a $16,000 claimer should make Summer of Mischief tough to catch, especially since she isn’t facing many other speed horses. We’ll single her to conclude our double wager, then bet her to win.

Selections

• #1 Summer of Mischief (9-5)
• #7 Je Suis Rapide (7-2)
• #5 Wildcatjustice (9-2)

Wagers

• $15 to win on #1 Summer of Mischief

Turfway Park: Race 7: $15,000 Maiden Claiming (one mile on Tapeta, 8:55 p.m. ET)

#9 Daguerre (20-1) is an intriguing longshot. He’s finished fourth and ninth in his first two starts against maiden special weight company on dirt and turf at Horseshoe Indianapolis. He’s since been gelded and is adding blinkers for his three-year-old debut.

Horseshoe Indianapolis form often translates to success at Turfway Park, so let’s try a small win bet on Daguerre, just in case he improves by leaps and bounds while dropping in class and switching to Tapeta.

Selections

• #9 Daguerre (20-1)
• #7 Jac Fourteen (8-1)
• #3 Desert Aire (3-1)

Wagers

• $15 to win on #9 Daguerre

Carryover Watch

Turfway Park: Race 10: $2,271 Super High 5 carryover (10:25 p.m. ET)

The $1 Super High 5 at Turfway Park has gone unsolved for two racing days in a row. As a result, the final race on Thursday’s card features a $2,271 Super High 5 carryover.

The evening finale is Race 10, a $5,000 claimer for older horses who have never won three races. The six-furlong Tapeta dash has drawn a dozen entries, so there are 95,040 possible Super High 5 outcomes before scratches.

The morning-line favorite is #12 Vagabond Shoes (3-1), and his credentials are strong. The five-year-old gelding has competed exclusively at higher class levels. His latest starts have come on dirt, but last winter at Turfway Park—in his lone start to date over a synthetic track—Vagabond Shoes won a $15,000 claimer for non-winners of two races.

Returning to Turfway for a $5,000 claimer should place Vagabond Shoes in the hunt for victory. However, starting from post 12 could be a downside since Brisnet statistics indicate horses breaking from posts 8 and wider have been at a disadvantage in six-furlong sprints at Turfway this meet.

In contrasts, horses breaking from the three innermost posts have fared nicely, so second choice #3 One for My Brother (4-1) is worth a long look. The five-year-old gelding has performed well in three recent sprint starts at Turfway, finishing third in a $7,500 claimer for non-winners of three races and then fifth and second in $5,000 and $8,000 claimers.

The latter two efforts yielded Brisnet Speed ratings of 74 and 77, which fit well against Thursday’s field. If the wide post draw compromises Vagabond Shoes, then One for My Brother is a logical alternative to snatch first prize.

In any case, there’s a strong chance Vagabond Shoes and One for My Brother will run 1-2 in one order or the other. We recommend assembling Super High 5 tickets accordingly, boxing them for the top two slots while spreading deeper underneath:

• $1 Super High 5: 3,12 with 3,12 with 2,4,6 with 2,4,6,10 with 2,4,6,7,8,10 ($72)

Good luck!