Thursday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Turfway’s $9,362 Super High 5 carryover

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Thursday, Jan. 16 at Fair Grounds and Turfway Park, including analysis of Turfway’s $9,362 Super High 5 carryover.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• New Players $200 Sign-Up Bonus: Open your TwinSpires.com account using the offer code BET200 to start earning a $200 bonus.
• Fair Grounds 15% Odds Boost: Receive a 15% boost (up to $25 per day) on your winning single-horse win wagers at Fair Grounds each Thursday in January.
• Woodbine Mohawk 15% Trifecta Boost: Receive a 15% boost (up to $25 per day) on your winning trifecta wagers at Woodbine Mohawk each Monday, Thursday, and Friday through January.
• 10x Points at Your Most Wagered Track: Receive 8x reward points on all wagers (excluding show bets) at your most wagered track each day this week from Monday through Sunday.

Today’s TwinSpires tournaments include:

• $200 Fair Grounds Feeder to 1/26 Fair Grounds/Oaklawn KDBC/NHC Qualifier
• $200 Turfway Feeder to 1/18 Lecomte KDBC Qualifier

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Fair Grounds: Race 5: $80,000 Allowance Optional Claiming (1 1/16 miles on dirt, 3:45 p.m. ET)

#4 Encino (6-5) rattled off three straight victories last winter and spring, including a gate-to-wire triumph in the Lexington (G3) at Keeneland.

Unfortunately, Encino scratched from a scheduled start in the Kentucky Derby (G1) and hasn’t run since. But an encouraging work tab, highlighted by a half-mile in :47 4/5 at Fair Grounds, suggests he’ll return in fine form for hot trainer Brad Cox, a 28% winner with horses returning from layoffs of 90 days or more.

Let’s bet Encino on top of a superfecta using #5 Accretive (3-1), #1 Call Me Fast (3-1), and #6 Giant Game (8-1) underneath.

Selections

• #4 Encino (6-5)
• #5 Accretive (3-1)
• #1 Call Me Fast (3-1)

Wagers

• $2.50 Superfecta: 4 with 1,5,6 with 1,5,6 with 1,5,6 ($15)

Turfway Park: Race 2: Maiden Special Weight (one mile on Tapeta, 6:25 p.m. ET)

There basically isn’t any pace in this field, so let’s take a chance backing longshot #8 Whippoorwill (10-1). The three-year-old filly has only run once, sticking within three lengths of decent fractions in a 6 1/2-furlong maiden special weight at Churchill Downs before tiring to finish ninth.

Whippoorwill should encounter a slower tempo while stretching out over a mile against this paceless field, so there’s a chance she’ll wind up on an uncontested lead under hot apprentice jockey Irving Moncada, who rides with a five-pound weight allowance. Let’s bet Whippoorwill to win.

Selections

• #8 Whippoorwill (10-1)
• #9 Beach Wedding (2-1)
• #5 Talent Show (5-2)

Wagers

• $15 to win on #8 Whippoorwill

Turfway Park: Race 7: Allowance (six furlongs on Tapeta, 8:55 p.m. ET)

#3 Pretty Liam (4-1) started three times on Tapeta at Gulfstream Park last winter and spring. She romped by 3 3/4 lengths in her debut, then finished third twice (including in the Melody of Colors S.) to Twirling Queen, a talented four-time stakes winner.

Pretty Liam has been freshened since March by new trainer Brittany Russell, who wins at a 32% rate with horses competing for the first time under her care. Pretty Liam’s 4-1 morning-line odds are enticing, so let’s try a win bet on this daughter of Liam’s Map.

Selections

• #3 Pretty Liam (4-1)
• #6 Connive (7-2)
• #7 Quiet Confidence (9-2)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #3 Pretty Liam

Carryover Watch

Turfway Park: Race 10: $9,362 Super High 5 carryover (10:25 p.m. ET)

Want to win a share of Thursday’s $9,362 Super High 5 carryover at Turfway Park? Then you’ll have to decipher Race 10, a $50,000 maiden claimer for three-year-olds dashing 6 1/2 furlongs over the Tapeta track.

It’s not an easy race to handicap. An overflow field of 14 horses (including two also-eligibles) has entered. Assuming a dozen horses start, there will be 95,040 possible Super High 5 outcomes.

One horse who must be strongly considered for win purposes is #7 Guy Smiley (3-1), a first-time starter from the barn of high-percentage trainer Wesley Ward. Ward wins at a 30% rate with horses debuting in maiden claimers, and since 2020 he’s gone 23-for-62 (37%) saddling first-time starters in sprints at Turfway Park.

Those starts are reason enough to support Guy Smiley, but there are other positives in his favor as well. He’s shown speed in training, clocking a bullet half-mile from the Turfway starting gate in :46 1/5. He’s a son of Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (G1) winner Hootenanny, who sires a lofty 23% winners from first-time starters. And he’s slated to be ridden by Walter Rodriguez, a 29% winner teaming up with Ward over the last two months.

#1 To Monarch (5-1) is another logical win threat. He’s shown talent against maiden special weight company on dirt and turf. In his debut sprinting seven furlongs over the Keeneland main track, To Monarch carved out the pace before staying on for second place. And last time out, he led for nearly six furlongs before tiring to finish seventh in a one-mile contest on grass at Churchill Downs.

Cutting back to 6 1/2 furlongs and dropping into a $50,000 maiden claimer should suit To Monarch just fine. It’s also encouraging to note he’ll be racing on Lasix for the first time, which is a 22% winning move for trainer Eddie Kenneally.

We recommend building Super High 5 tickets around Guy Smiley and To Monarch, counting on one to win and the other to finish in the top three.

Good luck!