Thursday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Turfway’s $94,897 Pick 5 carryover

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Thursday, Jan. 2 at Fair Grounds and Turfway Park, including analysis of Turfway’s $94,897 Pick 5 carryover.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• New Players $200 Sign-Up Bonus: Open your TwinSpires.com account using the offer code BET200 to start earning a $200 bonus.
• Fair Grounds 15% Odds Boost: Receive a 15% boost (up to $25 per day) on your winning single-horse win wagers at Fair Grounds each Thursday in January.
• Woodbine Mohawk 15% Trifecta Boost: Receive a 15% boost (up to $25 per day) on your winning trifecta wagers at Woodbine Mohawk each Monday, Thursday, and Friday through January.
• 5x Points at Your Most Wagered Track: Receive 5x reward points on all wagers (excluding show bets) at your most wagered track each day this week from Wednesday through Sunday.

Today's TwinSpires tournaments include:

• $100 Fair Grounds Feeder to 1/4 Smarty Jones KDBC Qualifier
• $160 Turfway Feeder to 1/4 Smarty Jones KDBC Qualifier

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Fair Grounds: Race 8: Maiden Special Weight (about 7 1/2 furlongs on turf, 5:15 p.m. ET)

#7 Tensas Camp Road (5-1) hasn’t shown much on dirt, but his lone try on grass was better. Facing 11 rivals in a one-mile maiden special weight at Horseshoe Indianapolis, Tensas Camp Road settled in midfield before passing a couple of rivals to finish fourth.

Now Tensas Camp Road is taking on easier competition in a maiden special weight restricted to horses bred in Louisiana. In his first start since being claimed by Alexis Claire (a 25% winner with new claiming acquisitions), Tensas Camp Road is worth betting to win and playing over #3 Dogwood Crossing (4-1) in the exacta.

Selections

• #7 Tensas Camp Road (5-1)
• #3 Dogwood Crossing (4-1)
• #5 Gold Thief (7-2)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #7 Tensas Camp Road
• $5 Exacta: 7 with 3
  Total: $25

Turfway Park: Race 5: Maiden Special Weight (one mile on Tapeta, 7:55 p.m. ET)

Since 2021, trainer Brad Cox has gone 6-for-22 (27%) saddling first-time starters in route races at Turfway Park. We’ll count on Cox to pick up another win courtesy of #2 Bracelet (7-2).

A daughter of Kentucky Derby (G1) winner Authentic, Bracelet has put together a respectable work tab highlighted by four furlongs from the Turfway Park starting gate in :48 3/5.

A win bet is in order, along with an exacta using three-time runner-up #12 Girl Math (9-5) for second place.

Selections

• #2 Bracelet (7-2)
• #12 Girl Math (9-5)
• #10 Chere Amia (8-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #2 Bracelet
• $5 Exacta: 2 with 12
  Total: $25

Turfway Park: Race 7: $7,500 Maiden Claiming (1 1/16 miles on Tapeta, 8:55 p.m. ET)

#9 Thabaat (8-1) never factored when debuting in a one-mile maiden special weight over the tricky Kentucky Downs turf course, trailing throughout. But he’s since been gelded and may improve while switching to Tapeta and plunging down in class for new trainer Andrew McKeever.

There’s a chance Thabaat will start at a higher price than 8-1, so let’s try a modest win bet on him.

Selections

• #9 Thabaat (8-1)
• #12 Royal Court (3-1)
• #10 Garden Leave (7-2)

Wagers

• $15 to win on #9 Thabaat (8-1)

Carryover Watch

Turfway Park, Race 5: $94,897 Pick 5 carryover (7:55 p.m. ET)
Turfway Park, Race 9: $1,444 Super High 5 carryover (9:55 p.m. ET)

Longshots won left and right on New Year’s Day at Turfway Park, with four out of nine races going to horses who started at double-digit odds. As a result, no one hit the 50-cent Late Pick 5, triggering a $94,897 Late Pick 5 carryover into the second Turfway card of 2025.

The sequence gets underway in Race 5. We’ve already outlined #2 Bracelet (7-2) and #12 Girl Math (9-5) as our top two choices, and Pick 5 bettors can feel confident standing alone with these two fillies.

Race 6 is a 5 1/2-furlong allowance for fillies and mares. Live contenders abound in the deep and competitive field. #11 Lamora (5-2) is the morning-line favorite after finishing seventh in a six-furlong allowance over the Aqueduct turf, but she’s competed exclusively on turf so far and isn’t guaranteed to relish Tapeta.

Among the entrants who are switching surfaces, we prefer #1 Hey Olivia (7-2), who has finished seventh, second, and fourth in a trio of recent allowance efforts on dirt at Churchill Downs and Horseshoe Indianapolis. She’s picking up apprentice jockey Irving Moncada (who rides with a five-pound weight allowance) and exits a bullet half-mile workout at Churchill, so there’s a lot to like about this daughter of Gun Runner.

Race 7 looks absolutely wide open. We’ve made our case for #9 Thabaat (8-1) as a live midrange longshot, but Pick 5 bettors might want to spread deep, certainly adding #12 Royal Court (3-1) and #10 Garden Leave (7-2) to their tickets.

Race 8 is a $25,000 allowance optional claimer for fillies and mares sprinting 6 1/2 furlongs. One price horse to include on your tickets is #7 Get Twisted (8-1). After spending her first four starts on turf, the five-year-old mare switched to dirt for a 5 1/2-furlong allowance at Churchill Downs and rallied from last place in an 11-horse field to finish fifth by 3 1/4 lengths. The closer-friendly Tapeta track at Turfway may prove more suitable for Get Twisted, allowing her to challenge for victory. It helps that trainer Anna Navarrete wins at a lofty 28% rate in allowances.

The Pick 5 concludes with Race 9, a $7,500 maiden claimer for fillies and mares racing 1 1/16 miles. If you feel good about your selections here, you might want to play the $1 Super High 5 as well, since there’s a $1,444 carryover up for grabs.

Horses with decent dirt form at Horseshoe Indianapolis tend to perform well over the Turfway Tapeta, often at nice prices. So don’t leave #4 Turbo Gal (10-1) off your tickets. She’s finished third and fourth in her last two starts sprinting in maiden special weight for Indiana-breds and may improve while stretching out in distance.

#7 Halcyon Days (5-1) is a strong contender too. She exits a third-place finish in a 1 1/16-mile $15,000 maiden claimer at Horseshoe Indianapolis and should appreciate descending to the $7,500 level for trainer Tommy Short, who wins at an 18% rate with horses dropping multiple levels down the class ladder.

Good luck!