Tuesday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: $19,860 Pick 6 carryover at Fair Grounds

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Tuesday, March 4 at Will Rogers Downs and Turf Paradise, along with horses to play in the $19,860 Pick 6 carryover at Fair Grounds.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• New Players $200 Sign-Up Bonus: Open your TwinSpires.com account using the offer code BET200 to start earning a $200 bonus.
• 5x Points on Harness Racing: Receive 5x rewards points on all bets at harness tracks (excluding show bets) each Monday through Wednesday from Feb. 17 through March 26.
• 8x Points at Fair Grounds: Receive 8x reward points on all bets at Fair Grounds (excluding show bets) each racing day from March 1 through March 9.

Today’s TwinSpires tournaments include:

• $200 Fair Grounds Feeder to 3/8 Tampa Bay Derby KDBC Qualifier

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Will Rogers Downs: Race 5: Allowance (six furlongs on dirt, 4:03 p.m. ET)

#1 C W Prize (1-1) has cracked the trifecta in 14 of his 15 lifetime starts. Last time out, he beat non-state-restricted competition in the Jeffrey A. Hawk Memorial S. at Remington Park.

Dropping into an allowance for Oklahoma-breds at Will Rogers Downs should make C W Prize tough to beat in his 2025 debut.  Let’s key him over #5 Our Cornerstone (7-2) in a cold exacta. The latter closed out 2024 with back-to-back sprint wins at Remington and hails from the barn of Jerry Stephens, a 27% winner with horses returning from layoffs of 46-90 days.

Selections

• #1 C W Prize (1-1)
• #5 Our Cornerstone (7-2)
• #4 Stage Left (4-1)

Wagers

• $20 Exacta: 1 with 5

Turf Paradise: Race 4: $30,000 Maiden Optional Claiming (5 1/2 furlongs on dirt, 4:28 p.m. ET)

#5 Hazael (5-1) is a threat to win on debut for trainer Kory Owens, who has gone 5-for-14 (36%) saddling first-time starters at Turf Paradise since 2021.

Hazael enters off encouraging workouts and brings a classy pedigree to the table. Sire Midnight Lute won two editions of the Breeders’ Cup Sprint (G1), while dam Mystery Me has foaled two stakes winners from six starters.

A win bet is in order.

Selections

• #5 Hazael (5-1)
• #3 Expect Love (3-1)
• #6 Maximum Sparkle (7-2)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #5 Hazael

Turf Paradise: Race 6: $12,500 Allowance Optional Claiming (one mile on turf, 5:30 p.m. ET)

#7 Neon Lights (7-2) is shipping in from Southern California. He’s set the pace in each of his last three starts over the Santa Anita turf course, finishing fourth in a pair of $50,000 starter allowances and fourth again in a $30,000 claimer.

Now under the care of trainer Justin Evans (a 23% winner with horses running for the first time under his care), Neon Lights is taking his game to Turf Paradise, where the competition should be a bit easier. The fact he’s picking up hot jockey Glenn Corbett (a 46% winner teaming up with Evans over the last two months) cements Neon Lights as a solid win play.

Selections

• #7 Neon Lights (7-2)
• #3 Wodeton (9-2)
• #1 House of Lords (3-1)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #7 Neon Lights

Carryover Watch

Fair Grounds: Race 4: $19,860 Pick 6 carryover (3:15 p.m. ET)

The ever-elusive $1 Pick 6 at Fair Grounds has gone unsolved for four racing days in a row. That means there’s a quadruple carryover worth $19,860 on the table for the Mardi Gras card at the New Orleans oval.

The feature event in the six-race sequence is Race 8, the $100,000 Mardi Gras S. for fillies and mares dashing about 5 1/2 furlongs on turf. An eight-horse field has turned out, and #6 Accomplished Girl (5-2) is a deserving morning-line favorite. She’s gone 2-for-2 sprinting about 5 1/2 furlongs over the Fair Grounds lawn since November, employing pace-tracking tactics to win the Pan Zareta S. by 1 1/2 lengths and the Robert “Bobby” Kelly Memorial S. by three-quarters of a length.

But there are other logical contenders in the field. One we definitely recommend using is #8 Speedy Traveler (7-2), who finished second in the Kelly Memorial after carving out the pace. That marked her first try on turf, and she won’t need much improvement to turn the tables on Accomplished Girl.

Pick 6 bettors looking for a single to build tickets around should check out Race 7, a six-furlong dirt allowance. The eight-horse field is led by #3 Discreet Mischief (5-2), who hasn’t missed the exacta in four starts.

After finishing second in his debut dashing six furlongs at Fair Grounds, Discreet Mischief dominated a seven-furlong maiden special weight at Keeneland by 8 1/4 lengths. He then ran second in back-to-back seven-furlong $100,000 allowance optional claimers at Churchill Downs, one of which was won by future Malibu (G1) and Pat O’Brien (G2) winner Raging Torrent.

Raging Torrent went to the sidelines after his last race in June and didn’t return to serious training until November. But 11 timed workouts (including a bullet five furlongs in 1:02 at Payson Park) should have him fit for a winning return. It helps that he’s trained by Brad Cox, a 28% winner with horses returning from layoffs of 90 days or more.

Throw in the fact Discreet Mischief owns the three highest dirt Brisnet Speed ratings in Tuesday’s field, and he’s a compelling choice to single in the Pick 6.

Good luck!