Tuesday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: $800 Blue Grass KDBC Qualifier tournament

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Tuesday, April 8 at Keeneland, including analysis of the $6,200 Super High 5 carryover and the $800 Blue Grass KDBC Qualifier tournament.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• New Players $200 Sign-Up Bonus: Open your TwinSpires.com account using the offer code BET200 to start earning a $200 bonus.
• Road to the Kentucky Derby $10 Money Back: Receive up to $10 back on your first single-horse win bet if your horse runs second or third in any Kentucky Oaks or Kentucky Derby prep race in March and April.
• Road to the Kentucky Derby 25% Odds Boost: Receive a 25% odds boost (up to $50 for the day) on winning win wagers at Keeneland on Tuesday.

Today’s TwinSpires tournaments include:

• $200 Parx Feeder to 4/11 Keeneland KDBC/G1G Qualifier
• $800 Blue Grass KDBC Qualifier

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Keeneland: Race 1: Maiden Special Weight (seven furlongs on dirt, 1:00 p.m. ET)

#2 Camp Hale (6-5) is dropping down in class and distance after finishing fourth in a quality renewal of the 1 1/16-mile Sam F. Davis S. on the Road to the Kentucky Derby. He’d previously finished second in three straight one-turn maiden special weights, coming home behind next-out Mucho Macho Man S. winner Guns Loaded and future Wood Memorial (G2) runner-up Grande.

This seven-furlong maiden special weight looks like a perfect opportunity for Camp Hale to secure his first victory. Let’s key him over second-time starters #3 Playa Del Mar (4-1) and #8 Invictus (6-1) in the exacta.

Selections

• #2 Camp Hale (6-5)
• #3 Playa Del Mar (4-1)
• #8 Invictus (6-1)

Wagers

• $15 Exacta: 2 with 3,8 ($30)

Keeneland: Race 3: $125,000 Allowance Optional Claiming (six furlongs on dirt, 2:04 p.m. ET)

#7 Tip Top Thomas (2-1) won his debut sprinting at Saratoga last summer over a quality field, then stretched out to finish second in the one-mile Champagne (G1). He hasn’t run since, but nine timed workouts since late January should have this Triple Crown nominee fit for a winning return.

#9 Gunmetal (8-5), exiting a third-place finish in the seven-furlong Swale S., can complete the exacta.

Selections

• #7 Tip Top Thomas (2-1)
• #9 Gunmetal (8-5)
• #2 Retribution (4-1)

Wagers

• $20 Exacta: 7 with 9

Keeneland: Race 5: Maiden Special Weight (1 1/16 miles on dirt, 3:08 p.m. ET)

Triple Crown nominee #2 Shangrala Road (7-2) debuted with a runner-up finish in a seven-furlong maiden special weight at Gulfstream Park. He was beaten only by Disruptor, who returned to finish fifth in the Florida Derby (G1).

Trainer Brad Cox wins at a 26% rate with second-time starters, and at a 28% rate with horses running long for the first time, so there’s a good chance Shangrala Road will move forward on Tuesday. Let’s bet him to win and play him over #4 Pitkin (5-2) in an exacta.

Selections

• #2 Shangrala Road (7-2)
• #4 Pitkin (5-2)
• #7 Last Man Standing (9-2)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #2 Shangrala Road
• $5 Exacta: 2 with 4
  Total: $30

Keeneland: Race 7: Commonwealth (G3, seven furlongs on dirt, 4:14 p.m. ET)

#2 Montalcino (3-1) brings lots of early speed to his graded stakes debut. He’s a head away from being unbeaten in four starts and exits a 5 1/2-length romp in a $50,000 allowance optional claimer at Fair Grounds, in which he clocked six furlongs in a swift 1:08.97.

Montalcino has also run well at Keeneland. Last fall, he smashed a seven-furlong allowance by six lengths in 1:21.56. The form was flattered when runner-up Banned for Life returned to win his next start against allowance company at Churchill Downs.

RELATED: Exacta of the Week: Commonwealth Stakes at Keeneland Tuesday

Let’s try a large win bet on Montalcino.

Selections

• #2 Montalcino (3-1)
• #5 Nutella Fella (12-1)
• #6 Hoist the Gold (9-2)

Wagers

• $30 to win on #2 Montalcino

Carryover Watch

Keeneland: Race 11: $6,200 Super High 5 (6:26 p.m. ET)

The afternoon finale on Tuesday is Race 11, a seven-furlong dirt allowance for older horses in which bettors can chase a $6,200 carryover in the $1 Super High 5.

The clear morning-line favorite in a large field is #1 Seaport Lane (2-1), and his credentials are sharp. He debuted on Jan. 30 in a six-furlong allowance at Fair Grounds and led all the way to win by two lengths. Yes, that’s right—Seaport Lane debuted against proven winners and won convincingly.

Just as importantly, the 94 Brisnet Speed rating Seaport Lane earned is only one point lower than the par winning number for Tuesday’s conditions, and it’s the highest last-out number posted by any horse in Tuesday’s field.

Seaport Lane has put together a sharp work tab in preparation for his second start, capped off by a near-bullet half mile at Keeneland in :47. Under jockey Jose Ortiz (a 30% winner teaming up with DeVaux over the last two months), Seaport Lane is a compelling choice to win his second start, and we recommend keying him on top in the Super High 5. A large win bet is also in order:

• $40 to win on #1 Seaport Lane

Tournament Watch

$800 Blue Grass KDBC Qualifier

Based on the number of players slated to participate so far, at least two entries into the 2025 Kentucky Derby Betting Challenge (KDBC) will be awarded to the top finishers in Tuesday’s $800 Blue Grass KDBC Qualifier tournament on TwinSpires.com.

The basic rules are simple: wager your entire $400 bankroll across at least five races at Keeneland (minimum $40 per race) to climb the leaderboard.

We’ve already outlined a bevy of tournament-eligible wagers, but let’s share one more: a trifecta for Race 10, the Blue Grass (G1).

RELATED: Tipsheet: 2025 Blue Grass Stakes

Seven horses have entered the 1 1/8-mile Road to the Kentucky Derby qualifier, and we prefer the chances of #6 Chancer McPatrick (7-2). A stretch-running winner of the Hopeful (G1) and Champagne (G1) as a juvenile, Chancer McPatrick recently kicked off 2025 with a solid runner-up finish in the Tampa Bay Derby (G3).

Trainer Chad Brown wins at a lofty 29% rate with horses running for the second time following a layoff, so Chancer McPatrick is eligible to move forward in the Blue Grass. We’ll key him on top of our trifecta while adding #1 River Thames (5-2), #3 Burnham Square (9-2), #4 Owen Almighty (3-1) and #5 East Avenue (3-1) underneath.

• Race 10, $5 Trifecta: 6 with 1,3,5 with 1,3,4,5 ($45)

Good luck!