Tuesday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Cold double with 10-1 shot

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Tuesday, Feb. 18 at Turf Paradise, including a 10-1 longshot.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• New Players $200 Sign-Up Bonus: Open your TwinSpires.com account using the offer code BET200 to start earning a $200 bonus.
• 5x Points on Harness Racing: Receive 5x rewards points on all bets at harness tracks (excluding show bets) each Monday through Wednesday from Feb. 17 through March 26.

Today’s TwinSpires tournaments include:

• $160 Parx Feeder to 2/22 Rebel KDBC Qualifier

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Turf Paradise: Race 6: $30,000 Maiden Optional Claiming (six furlongs on dirt, 5:18 p.m. ET)

#4 Dark Passenger (10-1) is an intriguing longshot. He finished third when debuting in a 3 1/2-furlong maiden special weight at Century Downs, then ran fourth in a $30,000 maiden optional claimer racing about 7 1/2 furlongs over the Turf Paradise grass course. The winner and third-place finisher from the latter race both came back to win.

Returning to dirt for a $30,000 maiden optional claimer can place Dark Passenger in the hunt for victory under hot jockey Karlo Lopez, a 21% winner at Turf Paradise this meet. It’s encouraging to note trainer James Brown wins at a 24% rate with horses switching from turf to dirt.

Let’s try a win bet on Dark Passenger, then single him to start a small double wager.

Selections

• #4 Dark Passenger (10-1)
• #2 Reboso (3-1)
• #7 Bottle Caps (4-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #4 Dark Passenger
• $5 Double: 4 with 6
  Total: $25

Turf Paradise: Race 7: $4,500 Claiming (six furlongs on dirt, 5:46 p.m. ET)

Former Southern California campaigner #6 Salsation (7-2) made his Turf Paradise debut in an $8,500 claimer sprinting 5 1/2 furlongs last month. He settled in midfield before passing a rival to finish fourth with a respectable 69 Brisnet Speed rating.

Trainer Justin Evans wins at a 38% rate with horses dropping multiple levels down the class ladder, so tackling a $4,500 claimer might be all Salsation needs to vie for victory. A win bet is in order.

Selections

• #6 Salsation (7-2)
• #8 Picking It Up (5-2)
• #7 Power Trip (3-1)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #6 Salsation

Turf Paradise: Race 8: $30,000 Maiden Optional Claiming (one mile on turf, 6:14 p.m. ET)

#9 Chasin a Dollar (4-1) has only run once on turf, finishing seventh in a one-mile maiden special weight for California-breds at Del Mar last summer. On that occasion, he was returning from a 4 1/2-month layoff.

Chasin a Dollar has improved in subsequent starts on dirt. He’s hit the board in three straight $30,000 and $32,000 maiden claimers sprinting at Los Alamitos and Santa Anita.

We’re willing to bet Chasin a Dollar is a better horse now than he was last summer, opening the door for an improved showing while returning to grass. The fact jockey Karlo Lopez and trainer Justin Evans have won at a 34% rate teaming up together over the last two months cements Chasing a Dollar as a worthy win play.

Selections

• #9 Chasin a Dollar (4-1)
• #4 Klinkerbrick (12-1)
• #2 Pure Cane Sugar (9-2)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #9 Chasin a Dollar

Good luck!