Tuesday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Mandatory-payout $214,403 Pick 5 at Parx

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Tuesday, Dec. 31 at Turf Paradise, along with a single for the mandatory-payout $214,403 Pick 5 carryover at Parx Racing.

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Best Bets and Quick Picks

Turf Paradise: Race 3: Allowance (one mile on dirt, 3:10 p.m. ET)

#4 Cornishman (2-1) made his Turf Paradise debut in a one-mile $16,000 allowance optional claimer on Dec. 16. After settling near the back of a nine-horse field, he rallied to win by half a length with an 85 Brisnet Speed rating.

#1 Saltwater Cowboy (5-1) looms as a logical challenger. He led all the way to win a $25,000 claimer at Los Alamitos by half a length, earning an 84 Brisnet Speed rating. This Southern California shipper is eligible to win right back for trainer Doug O’Neill, who has gone 2-for-5 (40%) at Turf Paradise in recent years.

Let’s use Cornishman and Saltwater Cowboy in equal strength to start a Pick 3.

Selections

• #4 Cornishman (2-1)
• #1 Saltwater Cowboy (5-1)
• #5 Awesome Road (5-2)

Wagers

• $15 Pick 3: 1,4 with 4 with 5 ($30) 

Turf Paradise: Race 4: $30,000-$20,000 Starter Optional Claiming (7 1/2 furlongs on turf, 3:40 p.m. ET)

#4 Dirt Flirt (5-2) was a terror over the Turf Paradise turf course last year, winning three straight $16,000-$12,500 and $25,000-$20,000 allowance optional claimers before finishing third in a $50,000-$40,000 allowance optional claimer.

Dirt Flirt subsequently competed with aplomb on grass at Canterbury Park. She’s been freshened since August and should be formidable while returning to Turf Paradise for the red-hot jockey/trainer duo of Fausto Da Silva and Juan Silva Jr., who have gone 6-for-16 (38%) teaming up together over the last two months.

Let’s single Dirt Flirt in our Pick 3 and key her over stablemate #5 Loopy (2-1) in a cold exacta.

Selections

• #4 Dirt Flirt (5-2)
• #5 Loopy (2-1)
• #2 Street Shadow (5-1)

Wagers

• $15 Exacta: 4 with 5

Turf Paradise: Race 5: $10,000-$8,500 Starter Optional Claiming (five furlongs on dirt, 4:10 p.m. ET)

#5 Launched (6-5) boasts a near-perfect 6-5-1-0 record at Turf Paradise. His last two starts over this track have yielded blowout gate-to-wire wins in $5,000 starter allowances, for which he earned matching 90 Brisnet Speed ratings.

If Launched brings his A game, he shouldn’t have much difficulty recording a third straight win for hot trainer Juan Silva Jr., a 37% winner at Turf Paradise this meet. Let’s single Launched to conclude our Pick 3, then bet him over #7 Mister Beams (4-1) in the exacta.

Selections

• #5 Launched (6-5)
• #7 Mister Beams (4-1)
• #1 Pat’s Paddock Pick (8-1)

Wagers

• $15 Exacta: 5 with 7

Carryover Watch

Parx Racing, Race 6: $214,403 Pick 5 mandatory payout (2:20 p.m. ET)

Parx Racing is celebrating New Year’s Eve with the mandatory payout of a massive $214,403 carryover in the 50-cent “Philly Big 5” Pick 5.

The five-race sequence is imposing from a mathematical perspective. Every race has drawn at least nine entries, and there are 53 entries in total, averaging 10.6 horses per race. It works out to 126,360 possible Pick 5 outcomes.

Fortunately, budget-conscious bettors can reduce the complexity (and cost) of their tickets by singling morning-line favorite #8 Irish Maxima (3-1) in Race 9, the $75,000 Mrs. Claus S. for fillies and mares sprinting seven furlongs on dirt. It’s one of three stakes on the action-packed card.

Irish Maxima has been in hot form this year for trainer John Servis, a 20% winner at Parx this meet. First she wired a 5 1/2-furlong $32,000 allowance optional claimer at Delaware Park, earning a 92 Brisnet Speed rating. She matched that number when posting a pace-tracking victory in Laurel Park’s six-furlong Weather Vane S., then improved to a 97 when trouncing a seven-furlong $100,000 allowance optional claimer at Parx by 5 1/2 lengths.

Irish Maxima was beaten in her latest try, but only by one length when second in the six-furlong Cheryl S. White Memorial S. at Mahoning Valley. Even in defeat, she earned a career-best 98 Brisnet Speed rating.

With four straight Brisnet Speed ratings in the 92-98 range under her belt, Irish Maxima is clearly the filly to beat in the Mrs. Claus. Only one of her rivals has posted a number higher than 91 this year, that being #2 Confirmed Star, who posted a 97 in the one-mile and 70-yard Plum Pretty S. But Confirmed Star’s three sprint starts this year have yielded Brisnet Speed ratings no higher than 87.

In other words, Irish Maxima should be mighty tough to catch if she brings her A game over Tuesday’s seven-furlong distance. Bettors can feel confident singling her in the Pick 5, which reduces the number of possible outcomes to consider down to just 12,636.

Good luck!