Turfway analysis: Mandatory-payout carryovers on closing day

After months of winter racing action, the Turfway Park meet concludes on Saturday. The eight-race card is highlighted by three carryovers slated to be paid out in mandatory fashion.

The biggest carryover—$65,643—can be found in the 50-cent Late Pick 5, which gets underway in Race 4 at 7:25 p.m. ET. The overlapping 20-cent Pick 6 begins in Race 3 (6:55 p.m. ET) and features a $29,859 carryover, while the prize pool for the $1 Super High 5 in Race 8 (9:25 p.m. ET) stands at $3,839.

One of the toughest races to decipher in the Pick 5 and Pick 6 is Race 5, a $25,000 allowance optional claimer taking place over 1 1/2 miles on Tapeta. There are 12 horses in the main body of the field plus two on the also-eligible list, yet there isn’t a single frontrunner in the field. The race figures to unfold at a pedestrian pace, and it’s anyone’s guess which horse(s) will benefit.

A potential pace player is #9 King Curlin (6-1). He’s stayed within a few lengths of decent pace fractions in his last two starts over shorter distances. He’s also proven himself over 1 1/2 miles, winning a $35,000 allowance optional claimer on grass at Gulfstream Park last year. Stretching back out over 1 1/2 miles against a paceless field may put King Curlin on or near the lead, setting the stage for victory.

#4 Tiberius Mercurius (8-1) is another potential pace player. His 4-for-12 record at Turfway Park includes a gate-to-wire victory in a 1 1/4-mile $40,000 allowance optional claimer in March 2023. And even with possibility of a slow pace, stretch-running #1 Greystone (3-1) is worth considering after he rallied to finish third by 1 1/4 lengths in a $35,000 allowance optional claimer racing 1 1/2 miles over the Gulfstream turf.

The feature event on the card is Race 6, the Serena’s Song S. for three-year-old fillies dashing six furlongs on Tapeta. #5 Long Neck Paula (2-1) is the favorite after winning two stakes last year, including the six-furlong Bowman Mill S. against males at Keeneland. But she hasn’t run since October and has yet to race over a synthetic track, so returning from a layoff and switching to Tapeta are two obstacles to overcome.

We do recommend including Long Neck Paula on Pick 5 and Pick 6 tickets, but there are others worth using too. For example, #10 Bourbon Memory (4-1), who is unbeaten in three starts over the Turfway Tapeta. And also #1 Family (5-1), who earned a sharp 93 Brisnet Speed rating when wiring her debut over this track and distance.

As for Race 10, which plays a part in all three carryovers, it’s a $5,000 claimer for horses who have never won three races. The 6 1/2-furlong Tapeta dash has drawn many viable contenders, and one horse you’ll absolutely want on your tickets—including on top in the Super High 5—is #10 Huntertown (5-2).

At Turfway since December, Huntertown has hit the board twice in $30,000 claimers for non-winners of three races. Trainer Rey Hernandez wins at a sharp 20% rate with horses dropping multiple levels down the class ladder, so Huntertown should be a serious contender while descending to the $5,000 level.

Good luck!