Wednesday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: 12-1 shot at Turfway

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Wednesday, Feb. 5 at Turfway Park, along with tickets for the $15,521 Super High 5 carryover at Tampa Bay Downs.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• New Players $200 Sign-Up Bonus: Open your TwinSpires.com account using the offer code BET200 to start earning a $200 bonus.

Today’s TwinSpires tournaments include:

• $160 Tampa Bay Downs Feeder to 2/8 Sam F. Davis/Oaklawn KDBC Qualifier
• $200 Turfway Feeder to 2/15 Risen Star KDBC Qualifier

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Turfway Park: Race 1: $15,000 Maiden Claiming (six furlongs on Tapeta, 5:55 p.m. ET)

#5 Factuality (12-1) is an unraced filly from the barn of Ed Moger Jr., who wins at 22% rate with horses debuting in maiden claimers.

A daughter of Stay Thirsty (who sires a decent 10% winners from first-time starters), Factuality has posted 11 timed workouts at Turfway since mid-November, suggesting she’ll be fit to outrun her 12-1 odds on debut. Let’s try a win bet on this 12-1 longshot.

Selections

• #5 Factuality (12-1)
• #1 Upscuttled (3-1)
• #9 Statler Inn (4-1)

Wagers

• $15 to win on #5 Factuality

Turfway Park: Race 6: $30,000 Maiden Claiming (6 1/2 furlongs on Tapeta, 8:25 p.m. ET)

#3 Cassiopeia (2-1) looks well-spotted to vie for victory in her third Turfway try. On Dec. 12, she closed ground to finish fifth in a six-furlong maiden special weight. On Jan. 17, she rallied to finish third (beaten only 1 3/4 lengths) in a 6 1/2-furlong $50,000 maiden claimer.

Sticking to 6 1/2 furlongs while dropping in class for a $30,000 maiden claimer might be all Cassiopeia needs to win. The fact she’s adding blinkers for the red-hot jockey/trainer duo of Irving Moncada and Kelsey Danner adds to the appeal.

We’ll keep things simple with a large win bet on Cassiopeia.

Selections

• #3 Cassiopeia (2-1)
• #1 Mo Attitude (9-2)
• #4 Don’t Look Back (5-2)

Wagers

• $30 to win on #3 Cassiopeia

Turfway Park: Race 9: Maiden Special Weight (one mile on Tapeta, 9:55 p.m. ET)

#7 Steppin Silver (9-2) ran well in his debut over this track, distance, and class level two months ago. After settling in midfield early on, he advanced into the teeth of a strong pace and got within half a length of the lead before flattening out to finish third by 6 1/2 lengths.

Trainer Paulo Lobo wins at a 20% rate with second-time starters, so Steppin Silver is eligible to move forward on Wednesday, especially if he times his run better. A win bet is in order.

Selections

• #7 Steppin Silver (9-2)
• #2 Alpha Omega (6-1)
• #8 Sully (3-1)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #7 Steppin Silver

Carryover Watch

Tampa Bay Downs: Race 2: $15,521 Super High 5 carryover (1:15 p.m. ET)

The $1 Super High 5 at Tampa Bay Downs went unsolved in each of the final two races on Sunday’s card, triggering a double carryover worth $15,521 into Wednesday.

The Super High 5 is available to bet on any race featuring seven or more horses. Since Wednesday’s first race drew only six entries, the carryover is up for grabs in Race 2, a $16,000 maiden claimer for three-year-old fillies dashing seven furlongs on dirt.

The field hasn’t come up especially strong, so #1 Jenn Sweet Jenn (7-5) is a clear favorite on the morning line. She showed tactical speed when finishing second by 1 1/2 lengths in a 6 1/2-furlong sprint over this track and class level last month. A similar performance on Wednesday should put her in the hunt for victory.

But Jenn Sweet Jenn isn’t the fastest entrant from a Brisnet Speed rating perspective. Whereas she earned a 64 last time out, #7 Derby Effort (9-2) earned a 66 when finishing fourth in a Dec. 7 $16,000 maiden claimer sprinting six furlongs at Tampa. Unfortunately, Derby Effort regressed to a 50 when finishing 10th in an identical race on Jan. 3, but perhaps she’ll bounce back in her second start with Lasix, which is a 46% winning move for trainer Robert Smith.

#6 Venezuelan Flower (5-2) debuted with a fifth-place finish in a six-furlong $16,000 maiden claimer at Tampa and is adding blinkers for her second start, opening the door for improvement. She’s a logical contender under hot jockey Cipriano Gil.

#3 Brooklyn Spice (5-1) showed little when debuting with a last-place finish in a $32,000 maiden claimer racing one mile over the Tampa turf. But she’s bred to thrive on dirt and is adding blinkers, so there are reasons to believe she can improve while plunging down to the $16,000 level for trainer Gregory Sacco, who wins at a 45% rate with horses dropping multiple levels down the class ladder.

We’ll round out our tickets with the surface-switching #4 Chica Catholic (12-1) and the first-time starter #5 Girl Dynamite (12-1).

• $1 Super High 5: 1 with 3,6,7 with 3,6,7 with 3,5,6,7 with 3,4,5,6,7 ($24)
• $1 Super High 5: 3,6,7 with 1 with 3,6,7 with 3,5,6,7 with 3,4,5,6,7 ($24)
  Total: $48

Good luck!