Wednesday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: 30-1 at Horseshoe Indianapolis

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Wednesday, April 16, at Keeneland and Horseshoe Indianapolis, along with tickets for the $3,014 Super High 5 carryover at Tampa Bay Downs.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• New Players $200 Sign-Up Bonus: Open your TwinSpires.com account using the offer code BET200 to start earning a $200 bonus.
• Keeneland 25% Double Down: Hit two double wagers on any day at Keeneland from April 16 through April 18 to receive a 25% boost (up to a daily maximum of $25) on all winning double wagers at Keeneland for the day.

Today’s TwinSpires tournaments include:

• $200 Keeneland Feeder to 4/19 Keeneland KDBC Qualifier
• $160 Evangeline Downs Feeder to 4/26 Churchill Downs KDBC Qualifier

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Keeneland: Race 1: Maiden Special Weight (4 1/2 furlongs on dirt, 1:00 p.m. ET)

#5 Satisfied Mind (9-5) looks ready to win on debut for trainer Wesley Ward, who has compiled an excellent 8-3-2-0 (38%) record debuting juveniles at Keeneland this meet.

A daughter of First Samurai, who won multiple Grade 1 races as a juvenile, Satisfied Mind enters off a bullet three-furlong workout from the Keeneland starting gate in :34 4/5.

Let’s single Satisfied Mind to start a cold double wager.

Selections

• #5 Satisfied Mind (9-5)
• #2 Evolution (9-2)
• #1 Vibora (3-1)

Wagers

• $30 Double: 5 with 6

Keeneland: Race 2: $20,000 Maiden Claiming (6 furlongs on dirt, 1:32 p.m. ET)

#6 Casilda (3-2) has cracked the trifecta in a couple of $50,000 maiden optional claimers at Fair Grounds this year. She showed speed in both of those races and earned sharp Brisnet Speed ratings of 80 and 76, two of the best numbers in this field.

Dropping in class for a $20,000 maiden claimer should allow Casilda to conquer her Keeneland debut for the red-hot jockey/trainer duo of Flavien Prat and Brad Cox. We’ll single her to conclude our double wager, then add an exacta using #8 Violences Ohr (8-1) for second place.

Selections

• #6 Casilda (3-2)
• #8 Violences Ohr (8-1)
• #1 Big Earn (9-2)

Wagers

• $10 Exacta: 6 with 8

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 5: Maiden Special Weight (5 1/2 furlongs on dirt, 4:14 p.m. ET)

#7 Trouble Or Nothin (30-1) may be capable of outrunning his giant odds. He wasn’t disgraced when debuting over this track, distance, and class level on Oct. 14, tracking the early pace in second place before tiring to finish fifth by 7 1/2 lengths in a nine-horse field.

Trainer Robert Gorham wins at a 22% rate with horses returning from layoffs of 90 days or more, and Trouble Or Nothin is adding Lasix, so there are reasons to believe he can move forward in his second start. At 30-1, a win bet is in order.

Selections

• #7 Trouble Or Nothin (30-1)
• #11 Ready to Seize (3-1)
• #12 Mackadoo (9-2)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #7 Trouble Or Nothin

Carryover Watch

Tampa Bay Downs: Race 1: $3,014 Super High 5 carryover (12:33 p.m. ET)

If you can select the top five finishers, in order, in Wednesday’s first race at Tampa Bay Downs, you can win a share of a $3,014 Super High 5 carryover.

Race 1 is an $8,000 claimer for fillies and mares who have never won three races. Seven horses have entered, so there are only 2,520 possible Super High 5 outcomes to analyze.

We recommend keying #1 Ladys Chant (7-2) on top of your tickets. She’s finished off the board in her last two starts, but those were $16,000 claimers. One was on turf and the other was a 6 1/2-furlong sprint.

Three starts back at Tampa Bay Downs, Ladys Chant obliterated an $8,000 claimer for non-winners of two races contest going one-mile and 40 yards. She pressed the pace in second place before powering clear to win eased-up by nine lengths with a 76 Brisnet Speed rating, which is three points higher than the par winning number for Wednesday’s conditions.

Returning to the $8,000 level for another two-turn dirt route can send Ladys Chant to the winner’s circle.

Who are the key contenders to use underneath? #3 Special Affair (4-1) has cracked the trifecta in four of her last six starts at the $16,000 level, including two on dirt at Tampa Bay Downs, so she’s a logical threat to crack the trifecta again while descending into an $8,000 claimer.

#5 Rozay Summer (5-2) is a must-use contender, too. After spending most of her career competing on turf and synthetic, Rozay Summer switched to the Tampa dirt for a 1 1/16-mile $8,000 claimer for non-winners of two races. The result? A 1 3/4-length victory with a 74 Brisnet Speed rating. Hot jockey Samy Camacho retains the mount for Wednesday’s contest.

We’ll count on both Special Affair and Rozay Summer to finish in the top four. Then we’ll use #4 Laughintothebank (8-1), #6 Numeric (8-1), and #7 Shining Skye (3-1) for as high as third place, and finally we’ll toss in longshot #2 Vino Veloce (15-1) at the bottom of our tickets:

• $1 Super High 5: 1 with 3,5 with 3,5 with 4,6,7 with 2,4,6,7 ($18)
• $1 Super High 5: 1 with 3,5 with 4,6,7 with 3,5 with 2,4,6,7 ($18)
  Total: $36

Good luck!