Wednesday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Bet these double-digit longshots

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Wednesday, Feb. 26 at Gulfstream Park, Tampa Bay Downs, and Turfway Park, including three horses at double-digit odds.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• New Players $200 Sign-Up Bonus: Open your TwinSpires.com account using the offer code BET200 to start earning a $200 bonus.
• 5x Points on Harness Racing: Receive 5x rewards points on all bets at harness tracks (excluding show bets) each Monday through Wednesday from Feb. 17 through March 26.

Today’s TwinSpires tournaments include:

• $200 Tampa Bay Downs Feeder to 3/1 Oaklawn KDBC Qualifier
• $200 Turfway Feeder to 3/8 Tampa Bay Derby KDBC Qualifier

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Gulfstream Park: Race 1: $12,500 Maiden Claiming (1 1/16 miles on dirt, 12:50 p.m. ET)

In a field that doesn’t look especially tough on paper, #4 Praiseworthy (12-1) is an intriguing longshot. He’s cracked the trifecta a bevy of times in $12,500 maiden claimers at Gulfstream, but lately he’s been competing in either Tapeta sprints or dirt routes. He’s proven competitive in both types of races, so running long on Tapeta may unlock a winning performance.

At 12-1, a win bet is in order.

Selections

• #4 Praiseworthy (12-1)
• #1 Not a Dime Back (6-5)
• #5 Fredericksburg (7-5)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #4 Praiseworthy

Tampa Bay Downs: Race 7: $25,000 Maiden Claiming (one mile on turf, 3:45 p.m. ET)

#6 Smart Beauty (10-1) has only run twice on turf. She tired after setting the pace to finishing 10th in a one-mile maiden special weight at Gulfstream Park, then improved to fifth place (beaten only 1 1/4 lengths) in a $35,000 maiden claimer over the same course and distance.

Returning to turf for a $25,000 maiden claimer at Tampa Bay Downs may send Smarty Beauty to the winner’s circle at enticing odds. We’ll bet her to win.

Selections

• #6 Smart Beauty (10-1)
• #3 Elite Status (7-2)
• #4 Mishka (2-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #6 Smarty Beauty

Turfway Park: Race 3: $40,000 Allowance Optional Claiming (1 1/4 miles on Tapeta, 6:55 p.m. ET)

#6 Nyquick (7-5) ran a big race when making his Tapeta debut over this track and distance on Jan. 24. He carved out a solid pace before staying on to finish second by one length with a powerful 102 Brisnet Speed rating.

Sticking to the same conditions should make Nyquick tough to beat for high-percentage trainer Brad Cox. Let’s key him over #5 Kissalot (5-2) and #2 Quadra Island (3-1) in the exacta.

Selections

• #6 Nyquick (7-5)
• #5 Kissalot (5-2)
• #2 Quadra Island (3-1)

Wagers

• $15 Exacta: 6 with 2,5 ($30)

Carryover Watch

Turfway Park: Race 10: $3,160 Super High 5 carryover (10:25 p.m. ET)

If you want to win a share of Wednesday’s $3,160 Super High 5 carryover at Turfway Park, you’ll have to decipher Race 10, a $5,000 claimer for fillies and mares who have never won two races.

The 6 1/2-furlong Tapeta sprint has drawn a large and competitive field. A field of 14 horses (including two also-eligibles) has entered; assuming a dozen horses start, there will be 95,040 possible Super High 5 outcomes to analyze.

Morning-line favorite #6 Outrage (3-1) is a logical contender. The three-year-old daughter of Upstart finished midfield in her first two Tapeta tries racing one mile at Turfway, then relished cutting back in distance for a six-furlong $7,500 maiden claimer. After tracking the early pace, Outrage advanced to win by 1 3/4 lengths with a 71 Brisnet Speed rating.

But that contest was restricted to three-year-old fillies. Outrage is facing older rivals on Wednesday, which is bound to be a tougher task.

We prefer the chances of longshot #9 Rapping Wish (20-1), a five-year-old mare with a promising profile. She’s a longshot because her last four starts have been uninspiring, but take note, those were tougher allowance, $15,000 claiming, and $30,000 claiming races on turf and dirt.

Rapping Wish has raced seven times overall, and her two top-three finishes have both come sprinting six furlongs on Tapeta at Turfway Park. She wired her debut in a $30,000 maiden claimer by 4 1/4 lengths, earning a sharp 79 Brisnet Speed rating. Then—after tiring to finish 12th in a one-mile $25,000 allowance optional claimer at Turfway—she cut back in distance to finish a pace-tracking second in a $15,000 claimer for non-winners of two races.

Returning to Turfway for a $5,000 claimer might be all Rapping Wish needs to score her second victory. Take note, trainer Richard Estvanko wins at a 21% rate with horses dropping multiple levels down the class ladder. Throw in the presence of jockey Sophie Doyle (who has gone 2-for-4, 50% teaming up with Estvanko over the last two months), and there’s a lot to like about Rapping Wish’s chances.

In fact, we recommend taking a stand and keying Rapping Wish on top in the Super High 5. We also suggest placing a win bet, just in case Rapping Wish wins at 20-1 but you fail to solve the Super High 5.

• $20 to win on #9 Rapping Wish

Good luck!