Wednesday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Fair Grounds $3,451 Pick 6 carryover

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Wednesday, March 19 at Gulfstream Park, Tampa Bay Downs, and Turfway Park, along with horses to single in the $3,451 Pick 6 carryover at Fair Grounds.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• New Players $200 Sign-Up Bonus: Open your TwinSpires.com account using the offer code BET200 to start earning a $200 bonus.
• 5x Points on Harness Racing: Receive 5x rewards points on all bets at harness tracks (excluding show bets) each Monday through Wednesday from Feb. 17 through March 26.
• Winning Wednesday: Receive a 25% bonus (up to $25 per day) on winning single-horse win bets at selected tracks every Wednesday in March. Today’s track is Fair Grounds.

Today’s TwinSpires tournaments include:

• $200 Tampa Bay Downs Feeder to 3/22 Louisiana Derby/Jeff Ruby Steaks KDBC Qualifier
• $200 Turfway Feeder to 3/29 Arkansas Derby KDBC Qualifier

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Gulfstream Park: Race 4: $12,500 Maiden Claiming (five furlongs on Tapeta, 2:26 p.m. ET)

#2 Cajun’s Cookin (1-1) put up a field-best 81 Brisnet Speed rating when finishing second by a nose in a $17,500 maiden claimer over this track and distance. He then posted a 76 when finishing third in a 5 1/2-furlong $17,500 maiden claimer.

Dropping down to the $12,500 level should make Cajun’s Cookin tough to beat for hot trainer Collin Maragh. Let’s bet him over #3 Mega Don (7-2) and #7 R Money Moves (6-1) in the trifecta.

Selections

• #2 Cajun’s Cookin (1-1)
• #3 Mega Don (7-2)
• #7 R Money Moves (6-1)

Wagers

• $15 Trifecta: 2 with 3,7 with 3,7 ($30)

Tampa Bay Downs: Race 5: Maiden Special Weight (one mile on turf, 2:37 p.m. ET)

Since 2021, trainer Chad Brown has compiled a stellar 56-21-14-4 record saddling first-time starters in turf routes at Tampa Bay Downs. That’s a 38% win rate and a 70% in-the-money rate.

Brown has two strong contenders in this maiden special weight for three-year-old fillies. #1 Midway Memories (3-1), a half-sister to Blue Grass (G1) winner Zandon, has posted a couple of bullet workouts at Payson Park this month. #8 Marketplaceofideas (5-2) has also trained well at Payson Park and is slated to be ridden by hot jockey Samuel Marin.

Let’s box Midway Memories and Marketplaceofideas in the exacta.

Selections

• #1 Midway Memories (3-1)
• #8 Marketplaceofideas (5-2)
• #3 Curlaine (4-1)

Wagers

• $10 Exacta: box 1,8 ($20)

Turfway Park: Race 8: Maiden Special Weight (1 1/16 miles on Tapeta, 9:25 p.m. ET)

#1 Dairago (3-1) and #5 Wish Carefully (5-2) bring sharp Brisnet Speed ratings to the table. They’ve knocked heads in a couple of recent one-mile maiden special weights at Turfway Park, with each finishing ahead of the other once.

There’s a good chance Dairago and Wish Carefully will run 1-2 on Wednesday. We’ll bet the race accordingly with a boxed exacta.

Selections

• #1 Dairago (3-1)
• #5 Wish Carefully (5-2)
• #4 Run Quiet Run Fast (7-2)

Wagers

• $10 Exacta: box 1,5 ($20)

Carryover Watch

Fair Grounds: Race 3: $3,451 Pick 6 carryover (2:45 p.m. ET)

The second day of racing during closing week at Fair Grounds is highlighted by a $3,451 carryover in the $1 Pick 6.

A couple of races in the second half of the sequence appear straightforward to handicap.

The first is Race 6, a maiden special weight for three-year-old fillies racing 1 1/16 miles on dirt. #1 Sierra November (3-1) looks like the best of the experienced runners, but she hasn’t come close to winning in a pair of six-furlong maiden special weights, and her career-best 76 Brisnet Speed rating is six points lower than the par winning number for Wednesday’s conditions.

For these reasons, we suggest singling first-time starter #4 Protocol (7-2). The stoutly bred daughter of champion West Coast is conditioned by hot trainer Brad Cox, a 33% winner at Fair Grounds this meet. Since 2023, Cox has compiled a stellar 5-for-12 (42%) record saddling first-time starters in dirt routes at Fair Grounds.

Protocol has posted 10 timed workouts in preparation for her debut, so fitness shouldn’t be an issue. Under hot jockey Florent Geroux (a 28% winner teaming up with Cox over the last two months), Protocol looks ready to deliver victory in her first start.

Race 7, an $80,000 allowance optional claimer for older horses sprinting about 5 1/2 furlongs on turf, likewise looks simple to decipher. #3 Kavod (5-2) has been in hot form at Fair Grounds this winter. On dirt, he dominated the 5 1/2-furlong Duncan F. Kenner S. by five lengths. On turf, he carved out the pace in the 5 1/2-furlong Colonel Power S. before weakening slightly to finish second by a head.

There isn’t much speed in Wednesday’s field, so Kavod is eligible to shake loose on an uncontested lead under Jose Ortiz, the runaway leading jockey at Fair Grounds this meet. An easy lead while dropping down in class should make Kavod mighty tough to beat, so Pick 6 bettors should consider singling him.

Good luck!