Wednesday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Tampa’s $24,919 Super High 5 carryover

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Wednesday, Jan. 22 at Gulfstream Park and Tampa Bay Downs, including analysis of Tampa's $24,919 Super High 5 carryover.

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Best Bets and Quick Picks

Gulfstream Park: Race 3: $12,500 Maiden Claiming (five furlongs on Tapeta, 1:24 p.m. ET)

#1 Always to the End (4-1) put forth a good try in a $16,000 maiden claimer racing one mile over the Tampa Bay Downs turf course last month, carving out the pace before staying on to finish second by one length.

Always to the End is untested on Tapeta, so there’s a chance she’ll shine while switching surfaces and dropping down in class. Let’s try betting her to win and playing her over logical favorite #6 Star Performance (8-5) in the exacta.

Selections

• #1 Always to the End (4-1)
• #6 Star Performance (8-5)
• #2 Corona Princess (9-5)

Wagers

• $15 to win on #1 Always to the End
• $5 Exacta: 1 with 6
  Total: $20

Gulfstream Park: Race 4: $25,000 Maiden Claiming (one mile and 70 yards on Tapeta, 1:56 p.m. ET)

With Gulfstream being off the turf today, Race 4 has been shifted from one mile on turf to one mile and 70 yards on Tapeta.

The surface change shouldn’t bother #3 Dude Ranch (6-1) in the slightest. She’s finished second and third in her first two starts sprinting over the Gulfstream Tapeta. Her pedigree offers potential for success while stretching out in distance, and dropping in class out of a $35,000 maiden claimer cements Dude Ranch as a win threat for the red-hot jockey/trainer duo of Jorge Ruiz and Kent Sweezey.

A win bet is in order.

Selections

• #3 Dude Ranch (6-1)
• #10 Gulfstream Mary D (4-1)
• #4 Breezethrutime (5-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #3 Dude Ranch

Tampa Bay Downs: Race 8: $100,000 Allowance Optional Claiming (six furlongs on dirt, 4:15 p.m. ET)

#5 Launch (6-5) has cracked the trifecta in a trio of stakes, most notably winning the six-furlong Any Limit S. at Gulfstream Park last winter. She recently ended a lengthy layoff with a third-place finish in the Sugar Swirl S. over the same track and distance.

Dropping in class for an allowance optional claimer should make Launch tough to beat for high-percentage trainer Jorge Delgado. Let’s play her over #1 Ruthless Rua (2-1) in a cold exacta.

Selections

• #5 Launch (6-5)
• #1 Ruthless Rua (2-1)
• #2 Pacific Rose (4-1)

Wagers

• $15 Exacta: 5 with 1

Carryover Watch

Tampa Bay Downs: Race 1: $24,919 Super High 5 carryover (12:40 p.m. ET)

The Wednesday card at Tampa Bay Downs kicks off with a $24,919 Super High 5 carryover on the table in Race 1, a $25,000 claimer for horses who have never won two races.

Here’s the problem: Race 1 is a $25,000 claimer for horses who have never won two races, and while it was slated to take place over one mile on turf, Tampa has announced that they’re off the turf for Wednesday. Race 1 will instead take place over one mile and 40 yards on dirt, which may lead to a bevy of scratches. If the 10-horse field shrinks down to six or fewer starters, Super High 5 wagering will be canceled and the carryover will shift to Race 2

Without seeing race-day scratches, handicapping Race 1 is difficult. But we’ll certainly use #2 Swen (15-1) and #6 Endless Reign (7-2) if they stay in the race. Swen wired a $10,000 maiden claimer racing one mile and 40 yards over the Tampa dirt earlier this month, earning a respectable 75 Brisnet Speed rating. And Endless Reign (the mount of Tampa’s leading jockey Samy Camacho) earned Brisnet Speed ratings of 77 and 74 when cracking the top five in a couple of $25,000 maiden claimers on dirt at Delaware Park last year.

As for Race 2, it’s a $10,000 maiden claimer for fillies and mares racing one mile and 40 yards on dirt. If the seven-horse field stays intact and Super High 5 wagering is offered, consider keying #1 Ladys Chant (2-1) on top of your tickets.

Ladys Chant finished behind morning-line favorite #6 Mia’s Angel (7-5) when they ran 2-3 over this track, distance, and class level on Jan. 5. But Ladys Chant stumbled at the start and ran into some traffic trouble, all while attempting to close from behind a pedestrian pace.

Two starts back, in a seven-furlong $10,000 maiden claimer at Tampa, Ladys Chant finished 4 1/4 lengths ahead of Mia’s Angel. A sharp start and a clean trip on Wednesday can help Ladys Chant reverse the form of their latest meeting and visit the winner’s circle.

Good luck!