Wednesday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Turfway’s $180,036 Pick 5 carryover
Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Wednesday, Jan. 15 at Tampa Bay Downs and Gulfstream Park, along with analysis of carryovers at Tampa Bay Downs and Turfway Park.
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Best Bets and Quick Picks
Tampa Bay Downs: Race 1: $16,000 Maiden Claiming (one mile and 40 yards on dirt, 12:40 p.m. ET)
#7 High Water Mark (9-5) recently ended a 3 1/2-month layoff with a rallying third-place finish in a $25,000 maiden claimer sprinting seven furlongs at Tampa Bay Downs. That effort yielded a 68 Brisnet Speed rating, fast enough to vie for victory against Wednesday’s field.
High Water Mark has the pedigree to stretch out around two turns, and trainer Anthony Ferraro wins at a 20% rate with horses running for the second time following a layoff, so let’s single High Water Mark to start a double wager.
Selections
- #7 High Water Mark (9-5)
- #3 New Plex (7-2)
- #2 Dancer’s Shadow (12-1)
Wagers
- $15 Double: 7 with 6
Tampa Bay Downs: Race 2: $25,000 Maiden Claiming (5 1/2 furlongs on dirt, 1:15 p.m. ET)
#6 Jazz N Blues (7-2) put forward a good try when facing males in a $25,000 maiden claimer over this track and distance last month, racing in second place throughout while earning a decent 66 Brisnet Speed rating.
Jazz N Blues is facing off against fellow fillies on Wednesday, and she has a strong chance to visit the winner’s circle. Let’s bet her to win and key her over #3 Lucky Flay (3-1) in the exacta.
Selections
- #6 Jazz N Blues (7-2)
- #3 Lucky Flay (3-1)
- #10 Ms Kendrick B. (4-1)
Wagers
- $14 to win on #6 Jazz N Blues
- $6 Exacta: 6 with 3
Total: $20
Gulfstream Park: Race 6: Maiden Special Weight (5 1/2 furlongs on dirt, 3:00 p.m. ET)
#1 Spirited Boss (9-5) debuted with a respectable third-place finish sprinting five furlongs over this track and class level on Dec. 19, beaten only 1 1/2 lengths while earning an 80 Brisnet Speed rating.
Trainer Jose D’Angelo wins at a 20% rate with second-time starters, and five-time Eclipse Award-winning jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. (a 41% winner teaming up with D’Angelo over the last two months) is named to ride, so let’s key Spirited Boss over Dec. 19 runner-up #4 Grade A (5-2) in an exacta.
Selections
- #1 Spirited Boss (9-5)
- #4 Grade A (5-2)
- #3 Starship Vengeance (6-1)
Wagers
- $15 Exacta: 1 with 4
Carryover Watch
Tampa Bay Downs: Race 1: $14,112 Super High 5 carryover (12:40 p.m. ET)
The Tampa Bay Downs card begins with a $14,112 carryover up for grabs in the $1 Super High 5. The prize pool is available to chase in Race 1, the above-mentioned $16,000 maiden claimer taking place over one mile and 40 yards on dirt.
We’ve already identified #7 High Water Mark (9-5) as the horse to beat, and we recommend keying him on top of Super High 5 tickets. The question is, which horses should we use underneath?
Certainly we’ll respect #3 New Plex (7-2), who is switching surfaces and adding blinkers after a couple of top-five finishes in $16,000 maiden claimers racing one mile on turf at Tampa Bay Downs. #2 Dancer’s Shadow (12-1) must be respected too; he ran sixth in a $25,000 maiden claimer at Tampa last time out and is eligible to crack the top five while dropping down in class. And we’ll also support #1 Jr Sergio (12-1), who may improve with the seven-pound weight allowance of apprentice jockey Sara Hess.
- $1 Super High 5: 7 with 1,2,3 with 1,2,3,4 with 1,2,3,4,5 with 1,2,3,4,5,9 ($81)
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Turfway Park: Race 6: $180,036 Pick 5 carryover (6:20 p.m. ET)
Turfway Park was unable to race last week due to winter weather. Assuming racing resumes as scheduled on Wednesday, bettors can celebrate by chasing a massive $180,036 carryover in the 50-cent Late Pick 5.
Need a single to build tickets around? Try #8 Fantastical (7-5) in Race 8, an allowance for fillies and mares who have never won three races. The one-mile Tapeta contest has drawn a nine-horse field—small by Turfway’s standards—and Fantastical looks like a standout.
Fantastical hasn’t missed the exacta in her last six starts, including five allowances at a variety of tracks. She’s competed primarily on turf as of late, even winning a 5 1/2-furlong allowance at Churchill Downs, but last time out she put forth a gallant effort in a one-mile allowance over the Turfway Tapeta. After tracking the pace in second place, she charged late to miss victory by a head.
That marked Fantastical’s third top-three finish from as many starts over the Turfway Tapeta; last winter she finished first in a one-mile maiden special weight and third in a six-furlong maiden special weight.
Fantastical’s Brisnet Speed ratings are strong, and her tactical speed gives her options for working out a perfect trip, so bettors can feel confident singling her in the Pick 5.
Good luck!
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