Which Bob Baffert trainee should you bet in the Santa Ysabel?

From a strictly mathematical perspective, there is a 60% chance Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert will win Sunday’s $100,000 Santa Ysabel S. (G3) at Santa Anita. After all, he conditions three of the five sophomore fillies entered in this 1 1/16-mile Road to the Kentucky Oaks qualifier.

But the true likelihood of Baffert winning the Santa Ysabel is probably higher than 60%, because the five contestants are not quite evenly matched. Baffert comes to the table with a powerful 1-2-3 punch: two-time stakes winner #4 Kalypso, the stakes-placed #3 Heels Up, and the maiden winner #2 Beautiful Gift. Only #1 A Real Hero and #5 Moraz will line up to challenge the Baffert brigade, and both have already tasted defeat behind Baffert’s fillies.

Most bettors will throw their support behind Kalypso, and understandably so. The speedy chestnut has already made a name for herself on the Road to the Kentucky Oaks, sandwiching runner-up efforts in the Starlet (G1) and Las Virgenes (G3) around a comfortable victory in the Santa Ynez (G2).

But both of Kalypso's stakes victories have come sprinting seven furlongs or less. Her attempts to stretch out around two turns have been less productive; in both the 1 1/16-mile Starlet and the one-mile Las Virgenes, Kalypso carved out the pace before faltering in the homestretch.

With this in mind, perhaps Beautiful Gift can spring a mild surprise against her more heralded stablemate. A stoutly bred daughter of Medaglia d’Oro out of an A.P. Indy mare, Beautiful Gift is bred to relish running one mile or farther. She handled a flat mile just fine in an Oct. 23 maiden race at Santa Anita, prevailing by half a length over stablemate Flash Magic, while next-out winner Derby Quest finished another 30 1/4 lengths back in third place.

Beautiful Gift’s maiden win produced a 94 Brisnet Speed rating, matching the career-best figure owned by Kalypso. If Beautiful Gift repeats the effort (or takes a step forward) in her sophomore debut, she can spring a mild upset under Hall of Fame jockey John Velazquez.

Let’s bet Beautiful Gift on top of Kalypso in the exacta, then add a cold trifecta using Moraz for third place.

$20 Exacta: 2 with 4
$5 Trifecta: 2 with 4 with 5
Total: $25

Good luck!