Wednesday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: 10-1 longshot at Churchill Downs

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Wednesday, Nov. 20 at Churchill Downs and Tampa Bay Downs, including a 10-1 longshot to play in Churchill’s $7,347 Super High 5 carryover.

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• Churchill Downs $3,000 Three Pick 3 Hit It & Split It: Hit three Pick 3s at Churchill Downs on any day of the fall meet to split a $3,000 daily prize pool, starting Oct. 30.
• Tournaments November 25% Bankroll Cash Back: Wager your entire starting tournament bankroll during the duration of selected tournaments throughout November and receive 25% cash back.

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Churchill Downs: Race 3: Maiden Special Weight (1 1/16 miles on dirt, 1:58 p.m. ET)

There isn’t much pace in this field, which could give #4 Gallo de Fuego (4-1) a chance to shine. The son of Audible showed reasonably good tactical speed in a one-mile $100,000 maiden claimer at Churchill Downs last month, sticking with 2 1/4 lengths of the early pace before passing a few rivals to finish second.

Gallo de Fuego has the pedigree to handle two turns, and trainer Dale Romans wins at a 33% rate with horses stepping up from maiden claiming to maiden special weight competition, so let’s bet Gallo de Fuego to win and key him over #1 Coalmoon (2-1) in the exacta.

Selections

• #4 Gallo de Fuego (4-1)
• #1 Coalmoon (2-1)
• #5 Lured Away (9-2)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #4 Gallo de Fuego
• $5 Exacta: 4 with 1
  Total: $25

Churchill Downs: Race 4: $30,000 Maiden Claiming (5 1/2 furlongs on dirt, 2:27 p.m. ET)

#8 Shancelicious (3-1) is an unraced daughter of speedy sprinter Shancelot, who is siring 31% winners from first-time starters. That matches the win percentage of trainer Wesley Ward when debuting horses in maiden claimers.

Throw in the fact jockey Walter Rodriguez has won at a 38% rate teaming up with Ward over the past two months, and the stats suggest Shancelicious is sitting on a victorious debut. A win bet is in order.

Selections

• #8 Shancelicious (3-1)
• #1 Dinahs Girl (7-2)
• #7 Next Agenda (8-1)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #8 Shancelicious

Tampa Bay Downs: Race 7: $8,000 Claiming (one mile and 40 yards on dirt, 3:40 p.m. ET)

#1 Bounteous (5-2) was claimed by trainer Juan Arriagada (a 26% winner this year) the same day the three-year-old gelding crushed a 1 1/8-mile $16,000 maiden claimer at Delaware Park by 5 1/4 lengths.

In his first start for Arriagada, Bounteous struggled in a one-mile $16,000 starter optional claimer at Penn National, finishing fifth. But Arriagada wins at a 21% rate with horses running back for the second time following a claim, so there’s a good reason to believe Bounteous can rebound.

Throw in the fact that Samy Camacho (the reigning top jockey at Tampa Bay Downs) is picking up the mount, and Bounteous is worthy of a win bet.

Selections

• #1 Bounteous (5-2)
• #9 Midnight Onyx (9-2)
• #4 Le Mistral (3-1)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #1 Bounteous

Carryover Watch

Churchill Downs: Race 1: $7,347 Super High 5 carryover (1:00 p.m. ET)

No one had any luck solving the $1 Super High 5 in the final race at Churchill Downs last Sunday. The favorite finished last while a 9-1 shot and a 19-1 shot swept the top two finishing positions, triggering a $7,347 Super High 5 carryover into Wednesday’s card.

The prize pool is up for grabs right off the bat in Race 1, a $20,000 maiden claimer for two-year-old fillies racing 7 1/2 furlongs on dirt. The 10-horse field contains 30,240 possible Super High 5 outcomes.

It’s a tricky race to handicap because morning line favorite #2 Citizen Judy (5-2) looks vulnerable. During the spring, she placed in a pair of 4 1/2-furlong maiden special weights on the Kentucky circuit. But since returning from a three-month layoff in September, her form has been in decline. She ran fifth in a $50,000 maiden claimer and fourth in a $30,000 maiden claimer, beaten on both occasions by double-digit margins. Her latest Brisnet Speed rating was her lowest to date (57), so Citizen Judy needs a rebound to vie for victory.

As a result, we recommend thinking outside the box and playing #5 Parisian Light (10-1) on top of your tickets. The daughter of City of Light never factored in a 6 1/2-furlong maiden special weight over the tricky Kentucky Downs turf course last time out, finishing 10th. But she fared better when debuting in a $50,000 maiden optional claimer sprinting seven furlongs over the Ellis Park dirt.

Indeed, Parisian Light showed tactical speed in her debut, sticking with 2 1/2 lengths of the early pace before tiring to finish fifth with a 63 Brisnet Speed rating.

Returning to dirt for a $20,000 maiden claimer should allow Parisian Light to vie for victory at enticing odds. In addition to keying her on top in the Super High 5, we suggest betting her to win:

• Race 1: $15 to win on #5 Parisian Light

Good luck!