Wednesday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: 10-1 longshot for Pick 5 carryovers

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Wednesday, Oct. 16 at Keeneland and Horseshoe Indianapolis, along with a 10-1 shot to play in a pair of Pick 5 carryovers at Delaware Park.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• New Players $200 Sign-Up Bonus: Open your TwinSpires.com account using the offer code BET200 to start earning a $200 bonus.
• Hoosier Park $10 Money Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second in any eligible race at Hoosier Park each Wednesday.
• Horseshoe Indianapolis 15% Profit Boost: Receive a 15% boost (up to $25 per day) on your winning win, exacta, trifecta, and superfecta wagers at Horseshoe Indianapolis on Wednesdays in October.
• Keeneland $2,500 Late Pick 5 Hit It & Split It: Hit the Late Pick 5 at Keeneland on any day of the October meet to earn your share of a $2,500 daily prize pool.

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Keeneland: Race 5: Allowance (5 1/2 furlongs on turf, 3:08 p.m. ET)

#4 Royal Slipper (2-1) showed talent on dirt last year, wiring her debut at Keeneland before finishing third in Del Mar’s Desi Arnaz S. behind future two-time graded stakes winner Nothing Like You.

Royal Slipper hasn’t run in 11 months, but high-percentage trainer Wesley Ward wins at a 25% rate with horses returning from layoffs of 90 days or more, so the extended break shouldn’t be a major concern. Royal Slipper has the pedigree to handle switching to turf, and the addition of Lasix and removal of blinkers both offer potential for improvement.

Let’s try a simple win bet on Royal Slipper.

Selections

• #4 Royal Slipper (2-1)
• #6 Moon Spun (4-1)
• #7 Penny’s Smile (9-2)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #4 Royal Slipper

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 6: Allowance (six furlongs on dirt, 4:45 p.m. ET)

#3 Deck of Cards (8-5) has won seven races in a row, including four this year with sharp Brisnet Speed ratings of 89, 95, 94, and 87. She wired a $20,000 starter allowance and a $25,000 starter optional claimer during the summer at Saratoga, then led all the way in another $20,000 starter allowance at Churchill Downs last month.

Deck of Cards should be tough to beat while taking her game to Horseshoe Indianapolis, where the competition tends to be easier than at Saratoga or Churchill Downs. Let’s single her to start a double wager.

Selections

• #3 Deck of Cards (8-5)
• #7 Hey Olivia (6-1)
• #2 Night Kiss (7-2)

Wagers

• $20 Double: 3 with 8

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 7: Maiden Special Weight (one mile on turf, 5:16 p.m. ET)

#8 Beach Wedding (5-2) ran well in her debut sprinting 6 1/2 furlongs over the Kentucky Downs turf course, rallying to finish third with a 77 Brisnet Speed rating substantially higher than the par winning number (67) for Wednesday’s conditions.

Facing easier competition at Horseshoe Indianapolis ought to send Beach Wedding to the winner’s circle for hot trainer Brendan Walsh, a 29% winner at Horseshoe Indianapolis this meet. We’ll bet Beach Wedding to win and single her to conclude our double wager.

Selections

• #8 Beach Wedding (5-2)
• #10 Hi Barbie (8-5)
• #5 Blind Faith (6-1)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #8 Beach Wedding

Carryover Watch

Delaware Park: Race 1: $19,724 Pick 5 carryover (12:30 p.m. ET)
Delaware Park: Race 4: $5,851 Pick 5 carryover (2 p.m. ET)

A couple of non-jackpot Pick 5 carryovers serve as the highlights of the Wednesday card at Delaware Park.

The 50-cent Early Pick 5 offers the larger prize pool, coming in at $19,724. But the 50-cent Late Pick 5 also boasts an appealing carryover worth $5,851.

Both sequences encompass race 5, a wide-open maiden special weight for two-year-old fillies dashing six furlongs on dirt. The two experienced runners in the field look a little slow to vie for victory, which means in all likelihood we’ll see one of the seven first-time starters visit the winner’s circle. But which one? Many bring promising pedigrees and encouraging trainer stats to the table. Spreading deep may be necessary to survive in the Pick 5s.

One double-digit longshot that we absolutely recommend including is #3 Walkinaftermidnite (10-1). In fact, the gray filly is our top choice to win race 5.

Walkinaftermidnite brings a terrific pedigree to the table. She’s a daughter of Metropolitan H. (G1) winner Frosted, a graded stakes-placed juvenile who sires 14% winners from first-time starters. Walkinaftermidnite’s dam is Sittin At the Bar, who has foaled four stakes winners from four starters, including Madison (G1) heroine Alva Starr and Prioress (G2) winner Cilla. Three of those stakes winner won maiden special weights at Delaware Park as juveniles.

Clearly Walkinaftermidnite has the pedigree to succeed at a high level — and from an early age too. But her appealing credentials extend beyond her bloodlines. She’s trained by Brett Brinkman, a 24% winner with horses debuting in maiden special weights and who has gone 2-for-3 (67%) saddling juveline first-time starters at Delaware Park since 2021.

Walkinaftermidnite also boasts a solid work tab highlighted by a bullet five furlongs from the Delaware Park starting gate in 1:01 4/5. Throw in the presence of jockey Julio Hernandez, the second-leading rider at Delaware this meet, and Walkinaftermidnite absolutely looks ready to outrun her 10-1 odds and challenge for victory on debut.

Good luck!