Wednesday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: $10,811 Super High 5

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Wednesday, March 27 at Tampa Bay Downs, Turfway Park, and Charles Town, including tickets for Turfway’s $10,811 Super High 5 carryover.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Winning Wednesdays: Receive a 25% bonus (up to $25 per day) on your winning single-horse win wagers at Gulfstream Park and Tampa Bay Downs every Wednesday in March.
• Hong Kong 15% Win Bonus: Receive a 15% bonus (up to $25 per day) on your winning single-horse win wagers at Happy Valley (HK) and Sha Tin (HK) every race day from March 24-April 28.

Picks and Plays

Tampa Bay Downs: Race 2: Maiden Special Weight (one mile and 40 yards, 1:18 p.m. ET)

The par winning Brisnet Speed rating for these conditions is 85, a number none of the entrants have come close to reaching. It won’t take much improvement for a longshot to steal the show, which is why we’re backing #5 Rosso (10-1).

A son of champion and Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) winner Vino Rosso, Rosso debuted in a seven-furlong maiden special weight at Tampa Bay Downs and trailed fast fractions early on before passing a few rivals to finish seventh. The winner, Good Money, returned to finish fourth by less than one length in the Tampa Bay Derby (G3).

Rosso is eligible to improve while stretching out around two turns for trainer S. Matthew Kintz, whose 21% win rate with second-time starters far exceeds his 8% strike rate with first-time starters. Let’s take advantage of the Winning Wednesdays promotion and place a $20 win bet on Rosso.

Selections

• #5 Rosso (10-1)
• #3 Arrow Speed (3-1)
• #4 Frizzante (2-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #5 Rosso

Turfway Park: Race 5: $50,000 Maiden Claiming (six furlongs on Tapeta, 7:55 p.m. ET)

#3 Ava’s Storm (9-2) ran okay in a maiden special weight over this track and distance last month, closing some ground to finish sixth by 4 1/4 lengths in an 11-horse field. Her Brisnet Speed ratings are respectable, and trainer Eric Reed has won with three of his last 10 starters at Turfway Park, so there are enough positives in Ava’s Storm’s corner to warrant a win bet.

Selections

• #3 Ava’s Storm (9-2)
• #1 Dan’s Candi Girl (5-2)
• #5 Meet in Secret (12-1)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #3 Ava’s Storm

Charles Town: Race 7: Allowance (4 1/2 furlongs, 9:49 p.m. ET)

#1 Dreamy Sonde (8-5) has employed dueling tactics to win her last two starts sprinting 4 1/2 furlongs at Charles Town, taking allowance contests by 4 1/2 lengths and 2 1/4 lengths while earning sharp Brisnet Speed ratings of 78 and 75.

Both of those races featured hot fractions, so Dreamy Sonde figures to be up and on the pace again this Wednesday. That’s beneficial since pacesetters have won 61% of 4 1/2-furlong sprints at Charles Town this year, while rail runners have won at an impressive 24% rate.

A large win bet on Dreamy Sonde is the way we’ll play.

Selections

• #1 Dreamy Sonde (8-5)
• #4 Mo Traffic (6-1)
• #9 Miss Bee Bop (9-2)

Wagers

• $35 to win on #1 Dreamy Sonde

Carryover Watch

Turfway Park: Race 8: $10,811 Super High 5 carryover (9:25 p.m. ET)

The final week of the Turfway Park meet kicks off with a non-jackpot $10,811 carryover in the $1 Super High 5.

As usual, the prize pool is up for grabs in the final race of the evening. On Wednesday, that’s Race 8, a $5,000 claimer for older horses sprinting six furlongs on Tapeta. There aren’t any special eligibility conditions, which means morning line favorites #3 Stubbornkindafella (5-2) and #5 Louisianimal (3-1) should be formidable.

Stubbornkindafella has been in strong form at Turfway Park, compiling two wins and two seconds from five starts since December. Two starts back, he tracked the pace in a six-furlong $5,000 claimer before taking over to win by three-quarters of a length. Last time out, he tackled an unconditioned $10,000 claimer sprinting six furlongs and closed from fourth place to finish second.

Both of those efforts produced 81 Brisnet Speed ratings, exceeding the par winning number (80) for Wednesday’s conditions. Stubbornkindafella would be an obvious choice to key on top if not for the presence of Louisianimal.

Louisianimal faltered in an unconditioned $16,000 claimer sprinting six furlongs at Turfway last month, finishing eighth. But he wasn’t helped by chasing blazing pace fractions of :21.97 and :44.77. Two starts back, Louisianimal led all the way through more controlled fractions of :22.29 and :45.85 to win a six-furlong $7,500 claimer for non-winners of three races by 4 1/4 lengths, earning an 84 Brisnet Speed rating.

Dropping into an unconditioned $5,000 claimer should help Louisianimal bounce back to peak form under Turfway’s leading jockey Luan Machado, a 21% winner this meet. That’s why we recommend playing Stubbornkindafella and Louisianimal equally in the Super High 5, counting on one to win and the other to finish in the top three. This strategy should give us every chance to assemble a winning ticket.

For the remaining slots, we’ll emphasize #9 Takafumi (8-1) and #10 Indefatigable (8-1). Takafumi has cracked the trifecta in a couple of $5,000 claimers at Turfway this winter, earning Brisnet Speed ratings of 78 and 80, while Indefatigable threw down a 79 when rallying to win an unconditioned $5,000 claimer sprinting 6 1/2 furlongs at Turfway two starts back.

Here’s how we recommend betting the Super High 5:

• $1 Super High 5: 3,5 with 3,5 with 9,10 with 9,10 with 1,4,6,8 ($16)
• $1 Super High 5: 3,5 with 3,5 with 9,10 with 1,4,6,8 with 9,10 ($16)
• $1 Super High 5: 3,5 with 9,10 with 3,5 with 9,10 with 1,4,6,8 ($16)
• $1 Super High 5: 3,5 with 9,10 with 3,5 with 1,4,6,8 with 9,10 ($16)
  Total: $64

Good luck!