Wednesday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: 12-1 at Delaware Park

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Wednesday, July 31 at Delaware Park and Horseshoe Indianapolis, plus a ticket for the $356 Super High 5 carryover at Louisiana Downs.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Hoosier Park $10 Money Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second in any eligible race at Hoosier Park every Wednesday in July.
• Horseshoe Indianapolis $10 Money Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second in any eligible race at Horseshoe Indianapolis every Wednesday in July and also Saturday, July 6.

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Delaware Park: Race 4: $16,000 Maiden Claiming (six furlongs on dirt, 2 p.m. ET)

#6 Xochil (12-1) raced within 4 1/4 lengths of a quick pace when debuting in a five-furlong maiden special weight at Delaware Park. She tired to finish a distant seventh that day, but earned a 51 Brisnet Speed rating that stacks up well against this $16,000 maiden claiming field.

Plunging down the class ladder while picking up apprentice jockey Felix Astudillo (who rides with a seven-pound weight allowance) can place Xochil in the hunt for victory at double-digit odds. A win bet is in order.

Selections

• #6 Xochil (12-1)
• #2 Derby Effort (6-1)
• #8 Uptown Miss (9-2)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #6 Xochil

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 9: First Lady H. (one mile and 70 yards on dirt, 6:18 p.m. ET)

#8 Under the Palms (3-1) was beaten by a couple of her First Lady rivals when finishing third in the Ellen’s Lucky Star H. at Horseshoe Indianapolis earlier this month. But that race took place on turf (which doesn’t appear to be the best surface for Under the Palms), and even still she gained a lot of ground down the homestretch to finish only three-quarters of a length behind the winner.

Under the Palms had previously competed well against non-state-restricted competition on dirt, winning a one-mile maiden special weight at Oaklawn Park and finishing fourth (beaten two lengths) in a 1 1/8-mile $100,000 allowance optional claimer at Churchill Downs. The latter effort yielded an 87 Brisnet Speed rating, the highest number in the First Lady field.

Tackling a dirt stakes for Indiana-bred fillies can send Under the Palms to the winner’s circle, so let’s single her to start a cold double wager.

Selections

• #8 Under the Palms (3-1)
• #6 Lil Gin N Class (5-1)
• #12 Noneofyourbusiness (9-2)

Wagers

• $25 Double: 8 with 12

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 10: Governor’s H. (one mile and 70 yards on dirt, 6:46 p.m. ET)

#12 Inveigled (7-5) has been competing with aplomb against non-state-restricted stakes competition. This year, he’s finished fourth (beaten 1 1/2 lengths) in the Mucho Macho Man S., fourth (2 1/2 lengths behind champion Fierceness, who came home third) in the Holy Bull (G3), second by a neck in the Private Terms S., and third in the Federico Tesio S.

Those efforts yielded Brisnet Speed ratings of 87, 86, 97, and 93. A typical performance from Inveigled should be sufficient to nab victory in his first start against Indiana-bred competition, so we’ll single Inveigled to conclude our double wager, then bet him over #4 Molly’s Town (6-1) and #8 Goodlookinjustice (3-1) in the exacta and trifecta.

Selections

• #12 Inveigled (7-5)
• #4 Molly’s Town (6-1)
• #8 Goodlookinjustice (3-1)

Wagers

• $10 Exacta: 12 with 4,8 ($20)
• $5 Trifecta: 12 with 4,8 ($10)
  Total: $30

Carryover Watch

Louisiana Downs: Race 7: $356 Super High 5 carryover (7:35 p.m. ET)

If you want to win a share of Wednesday’s $356 Super High 5 carryover at Louisiana Downs, you’ll have to decipher Race 7, a $12,500 claimer taking place over one mile on turf.

The morning line favorite is #6 Freedom Factor (5-2), a nine-year-old veteran of 68 starts. Some of his best efforts have come over the Louisiana Downs turf course, where he’s compiled a 9-5-2-2 record. He’s actually won both of his starts over the Louisiana Downs lawn since being claimed by hot trainer Joseph Foster last summer. In a September 2023 $15,000 allowance optional claimer racing 1 1/16 miles, Freedom Factor led all the way to prevail with an 86 Brisnet Speed rating. And last month, he employed identical tactics to trounce a 7 1/2-furlong $8,000 claimer by 11 lengths with a career-best 90 Brisnet Speed rating.

Those Brisnet Speed ratings stand out in Wednesday’s field, so let’s count on Freedom Factor’s affinity for Louisiana Downs to win the day and key him on top in the Super High 5.

Which runners should we use underneath? Certainly #7 Win Worthy (7-2). He has a tendency to break slowly, but last time out he rallied to finish second by one length in a $12,500 claimer racing one mile at Louisiana Downs.

#2 Guitar Boy (9-2) might be an even stronger contender. He’s cracked the top five in three straight starts over the Evangeline Downs turf course, most recently finishing fourth in a one-mile $20,000 claimer. Dropping in class can put him in the mix for red-hot trainer Justin Jeansonne, who has gone 3-for-6 (50%) at Louisiana Downs this meet.

#1 Robo (6-1) is also descending the class ladder and shouldn’t be underestimated. He’s gone 5-for-12 racing one mile and brings strong recent Brisnet Speed ratings to the table, including an 81 when beating a next-out winner in a $12,500 claimer racing 7 1/2 furlongs over the Louisiana Downs lawn.

#4 Easy Big Boy (8-1) warrants respect too. Two weeks ago, he wired an $8,000 claimer racing one mile at Louisiana Downs, earning a 75 Brisnet Speed rating. He cracked the top three in his only other turf start and still has upside for jockey Emanuel Nieves and trainer Tim Dixon, who have gone 3-for-7 (43%) teaming up together over the last two months.

• $1 Super High 5: 6 with 1,2,7 with 1,2,4,7 with 1,2,4,7 with 1,2,3,4,7,8 ($54)

Good luck!