Wednesday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: 12-1 Clement longshot

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Wednesday, Feb. 14 at Gulfstream Park, Tampa Bay Downs, and Turfway Park, including horses to play in Turfway’s $1,620 Super High 5 carryover.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• 10x Points on Harness Racing: Earn 10x reward points on all harness racing wagers (excluding show bets) every Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday during the month of February
• Winning Wednesdays: Receive a 25% bonus (up to $25 per day) on your winning single-horse win wagers at Gulfstream Park and Tampa Bay Downs every Wednesday in February.

Picks and Plays

Gulfstream Park: Race 5: Maiden Special Weight (one mile on turf, 2:10 p.m. ET)

#4 Fear and Friday (12-1) is a daughter of Kitten’s Joy out of a mare by More Than Ready, so she’s bred top and bottom to shine on turf. She breezed a bullet five furlongs at Payson Park on Feb. 4 and is eligible to outrun expectations for trainer Christophe Clement, who has gone 8-for-43 (19%) saddling first-time starters in turf routes at Gulfstream since 2019.

Let’s take advantage of the Winning Wednesdays promotion and place a $20 win bet on Fear and Friday:

Selections

• #4 Fear and Friday (12-1)
• #7 Candy Landy (5-1)
• #10 Expatriate (7-2)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #4 Fear and Friday

Tampa Bay Downs: Race 7: Maiden Special Weight (1 1/16 miles on turf, 3:30 p.m. ET)

#4 Going Concern (5-2) is an unraced four-year-old gelding trainer by Chad Brown. That’s significant because Brown’s flashy 49-18-12-7 (37%) record saddling first-time starters in turf routes at Tampa Bay Downs since 2019 includes a stellar 5-3-2-0 (60%) tally with horses aged four and older.

As a son of brilliant European miler Kingman out of a mare by superstar sire Galileo, Going Concern is bred to relish turf. Throw in the fact he’ll be guided by hot jockey Antonio Gallardo, and a large win bet is in order. We’ll try to catch a 25% bonus thanks to the Winning Wednesdays promotion.

Selections

• #4 Going Concern (5-2)
• #9 Au Paradis (7-2)
• #8 Magistrate (3-1)

Wagers

• $30 to win on #4 Going Concern

Turfway Park: Race 4: $7,500 Maiden Claiming (one mile on Tapeta, 7:25 p.m. ET)

#5 Vino Fa Danza (6-1) failed to show much in two starts sprinting against $50,000 and $30,000 maiden claiming competition at Churchill Downs and Keeneland last year, finishing eighth both times while beaten by wide margins. But there are reasons to believe he can improve on Wednesday.

For starters, Vino Fa Danza is dropping into a $7,500 maiden claimer. For another, he’s stretching out over a mile, a benefit since he’s a son of Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) winner Vino Rosso. Plus, Vino Fa Danza is adding Lasix, switching from dirt to Tapeta, and picking up apprentice jockey Eric Fuentes, who rides with a 10-pound weight allowance.

Some or all of these changes can combine to place Vino Fa Danza in the hunt for victory, so let’s bet the three-year-old gelding to win. 

Selections

• #5 Vino Fa Danza (6-1)
• #4 Company You Keep (5-2)
• #1 Revenge Tour (10-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #5 Vino Fa Danza

Carryover Watch

Turfway Park: Race 9: $1,620 Super High 5 carryover (9:55 p.m. ET)

There’s a $1,620 Super High 5 carryover up for grabs on Wednesday at Turfway Park, but there’s no guarantee anyone will assemble a winning ticket for the $1 wager.

After all, the carryover is available to chase in Race 9, an ultra-competitive $5,000 maiden claimer for fillies and mares racing one mile on Tapeta. There are 12 horses in the main body of the field plus one on the also-eligible list, and a case can be made for pretty much any of them to finish in the top five.

At least morning line favorite #2 Varsity Doll (7-2) looks like a logical filly to build tickets around. She’s cracked the trifecta in three straight $7,500 maiden claimers, most recently rallying to finish third by 1 1/2 lengths in a 6 1/2-furlong sprint at Turfway Park. She’s also placed twice running one mile and farther at Presque Isle Downs, so stretching back out in trip shouldn’t be an issue. A top-five finish appears likely.

But if we like Varsity Doll, then we have to support #4 Emerson’s Dream (6-1) as well. The five-year-old mare cracked the trifecta several times running long against Indiana-breds on dirt and turf before making her Tapeta debut in a $7,500 maiden claimer at Turfway Park last month.

That happened to be the same 6 1/2-furlong sprint in which Varsity Doll finished third. Emerson’s Dream didn’t fare quite as well in fourth place, but she finished only half a length behind Varsity Doll and was beaten only two lengths for first place. Emerson’s Dream and Varsity Doll both carried 122 pounds that day, but on Wednesday Emerson’s Dream is getting a seven-pound weight break courtesy of apprentice jockey German Terraza, and that could allow Emerson’s Dream to turn the tables at enticing odds.

We also have to mention #8 Southern Mesa (20-1) as a live longshot worth considering. She showed little in her first seven starts on dirt and turf, but has been freshened since October and has switched barns to trainer Byron Hughes, who has gone 3-for-7 (43%) at Turfway since November. Southern Mesa is adding Lasix for her Tapeta debut and may be eligible to outrun expectations while dropping in class from a $12,500 maiden claimer into a $5,000 maiden claimer.

By building tickets around Varsity Doll and Emerson’s Dream (with a slight preference for the latter), and by mixing Southern Mesa into the mix as a longshot, we should have a decent chance to cash a lucrative Super High 5 payoff.

Good luck!