Wednesday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: 12-1 longshots at Turfway

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Wednesday, Dec. 20 at Turfway Park, including a 12-1 longshot to use in the $1,419 Super High 5 carryover.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Bayou & Bluegrass 10x Points: Receive 10x reward points on all wagers (excluding show bets) at Fair Grounds and Turfway Park from Nov. 29 through Dec. 31.
• $3,000 Delta Downs Early Pick 5 Hit It & Split It: Hit the early Pick 5 at Delta Downs on Dec. 20 and Dec. 27 to win your share of a $3,000 daily jackpot.

Picks and Plays

Turfway Park: Race 1: $7,500 Maiden Claiming (one mile on Tapeta, 5:55 p.m. ET)

#1 Legend of the Nile (12-1) has been beaten by double-digit margins in his first two starts against maiden special weight competition on dirt and turf at Ellis Park. But now he’s plunging in class and switching to Tapeta at Turfway, opening the door for a much-improved performance.

This field hasn’t come up overly deep on paper, so let’s bet Legend of the Nile to win and aim to catch a big payoff.

Selections

• #1 Legend of the Nile (12-1)
• #4 Fire Wire (2-1)
• #8 Gucci Man (7-2)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #1 Legend of the Nile

Turfway Park: Race 2: $15,000 Maiden Claiming (6 1/2 furlongs on Tapeta, 6:25 p.m. ET)

#7 Vivis in Front (12-1) has shown flashes of tactical speed while finishing fifth and third in $25,000 maiden claimers over the Horseshoe Indianapolis dirt. Switching to Tapeta, dropping class, and picking up apprentice jockey Matilda Burnham (who rides with a seven-pound weight allowance) can place him in the hunt for victory at double-digit odds.

#3 Margaret’s Lady (3-1) and #1 Seau n’Tap (8-1) are logical candidates to complete the exacta.

Selections

• #7 Vivis in Front (12-1)
• #3 Margaret’s Lady (3-1)
• #1 Seau n’Tap (8-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #7 Vivis in Front
• $3 Exacta: 7 with 3
• $2 Exacta: 7 with 1
  Total: $25

Turfway Park: Race 5: Maiden Special Weight (6 1/2 furlongs on Tapeta, 7:55 p.m. ET)

#9 Summerintahoe (15-1) showed speed in her debut dashing 6 1/2 furlongs at Keeneland, dueling for the lead before weakening in the homestretch to finish seventh behind next-out Churchill Downs allowance optional claiming winner Denim and Pearls. Summerintahoe subsequently suffered a slow and troubled break in her second start sprinting six furlongs at Churchill, but recovered to pass a few rivals and finish sixth.

Perhaps switching to Tapeta at Turfway (where the competition tends to be a bit easier) can trigger a move forward from Summerintahoe. We’ll play with that expectation in mind, betting her to win and calling it a day.

Selections

• #9 Summerintahoe (15-1)
• #12 Silk (2-1)
• #8 Uno Le (5-2)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #9 Summerintahoe

Carryover Watch

Turfway Park: Race 9: $1,419 Super High 5 carryover (9:55 p.m. ET)

The racing week at Turfway Park gets underway on Wednesday with a $1,419 carryover up for grabs in the $1 Super High 5.

The prize pool is available to pursue in Race 9, a $30,000 maiden claimer taking place over six furlongs on Tapeta. An overflow field of 14 (including two also-eligibles) has been entered, so assuming a dozen horses face the starter, there will be 95,040 possible Super High 5 outcomes. That’s a lot of combinations.

The morning line favorite is #10 Buehler’s Day Off (7-2), and overall it’s hard to knock his form. The four-year-old gelding has hit the board in all nine of his starts, including a stakes and six maiden special weights.

But Buehler’s Day Off was beaten to third place by 4 1/4 lengths when dropping in class for a $30,000 maiden claimer at Churchill Downs last month, and his 9-0-2-5 lifetime record hints he’s inclined to settle for a minor award regardless of the class level at which he’s competing. Unless he moves forward in a big way while trying Tapeta for the first time, Buehler’s Day Off could be vulnerable to an upset.

Perhaps we can beat the favorite with #5 Lyte Crude (12-1), who offers a much higher price on the morning line. At first glance, Lyte Crude’s record is similar to that of Buehler’s Day off, standing at 10-0-3-2.

But there are positives to offset Lyte Crude’s overall record. He’s placed in two of his three starts on Tapeta at Gulfstream Park, including a maiden special weight. And last time out, he gained ground into a decent :24.52 final quarter-mile to finish sixth by 2 1/4 lengths in a one-mile maiden special weight over the Horseshoe Indianapolis turf course.

Returning to Tapeta and dropping in class for a $30,000 maiden claimer can place Lyte Crude in the hunt for victory under apprentice jockey German Terraza, who rides with a seven-pound weight allowance. We recommend using Lyte Crude up and down your Super High 5 tickets, including on top. And for good measure, we’ll place a $20 win bet on Lyte Crude.

• $20 to win on #5 Lyte Crude

Good luck!