Wednesday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: 5-1 on Lobo maiden

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Wednesday, Feb. 28 at Gulfstream Park and Turfway Park, including a strategy for chasing Turfway’s $1,428 Super High 5 carryover.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• 10x Points on Harness Racing: Earn 10x reward points on all harness racing wagers (excluding show bets) every Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday during the month of February
• Winning Wednesdays: Receive a 25% bonus (up to $25 per day) on your winning single-horse win wagers at Gulfstream Park and Tampa Bay Downs every Wednesday in February.

Picks and Plays

Gulfstream Park: Race 7: $35,000 Allowance Optional Claiming (1 1/2 miles, 4:10 p.m. ET)

#2 Utah Beach (8-1) hasn’t missed the exacta in five starts, most notably posting a four-length victory in a 1 1/4-mile maiden special weight on Tapeta at Turfway Park. The four-year-old gelding has also run well against quality competition on turf; in his debut racing 1 1/16 miles at Colonial Downs, he finished second behind future graded stakes winner Integration.

As a son of English Channel, Utah Beach has the pedigree to shine racing 1 1/2 miles on turf, making his 8-1 morning line odds appealing. Let’s take advantage of the Winning Wednesdays promotion and place a win bet on Utah Beach, then add a small exacta using #8 Henley’s Joy (2-1) for second place.

Selections

• #2 Utah Beach (8-1)
• #8 Henley’s Joy (2-1)
• #7 Harry Hood (6-1)

Wagers

• $16 to win on #2 Utah Beach
• $4 Exacta: 2 with 8
  Total: $20

Turfway Park: Race 3: $16,000 Starter Allowance (six furlongs on Tapeta, 6:55 p.m. ET)

#6 Startdfromdabottom (9-5) finished seventh in his lone Turfway start to date, but that was a tough edition of the Holiday Cheer S. in December. In that six-furlong sprint, Startdfromdabottom tracked a blazing opening quarter-mile in :21.36, advanced into a :45.06 half-mile, and then weakened down the homestretch.

Startdfromdabottom should find the competition easier while dropping into a $16,000 starter allowance, so let’s bet him to win and then key him over #4 Solidify (5-2) in the exacta.

Selections

• #6 Startdfromdabottom (9-5)
• #4 Solidify (5-2)
• #3 Pure Panic (3-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #6 Startdfromdabottom
• $5 Exacta: 6 with 4
  Total: $25

Turfway Park: Race 5: Maiden Special Weight (six furlongs on Tapeta, 7:55 p.m. ET)

Since 2022, trainer Paulo Lobo has compiled a terrific 6-for-12 (50%) record debuting three-year-olds in sprints at Turfway Park. With this powerful stat in mind, we have to back Lobo’s unraced three-year-old filly #12 Ultimate Ready (5-1) in this six-furlong maiden dash.

Ultimate Ready is a well-bred daughter of More Than Ready out of the Unbridled’s Song mare Ultimate Reward, who has foaled two winners from two starters. Hot jockey Luan Machado (a 21% winner at Turfway this meet) is named to ride, so let’s place a large win bet on Ultimate Ready.

Selections

• #12 Ultimate Ready (5-1)
• #3 Silk (4-1)
• #1 Where’s the Wine (6-1)

Wagers

• $30 to win on #12 Ultimate Ready

Carryover Watch

Turfway Park: Race 9: $1,428 Super High 5 carryover (9:55 p.m. ET)

At first glance, winning a share of Wednesday’s $1,418 Super High 5 carryover at Turfway Park appears difficult. After all, the prize pool for the $1 wager is available to chase in Race 9, which has drawn an overflow field with 12 horses in the main body of the field and two more on the also-eligible list.

But you know what? The Super High 5 might not be as complicated as it first appears. Race 9 is a $5,000 claimer for older horses who haven’t won three races in the last year or four races in their lifetime, and the 6 1/2-furlong Tapeta sprint features a logical favorite in the form of #2 Senor Jobim (9-5).

Senor Jobim is a 10-year-old veteran with a 54-11-9-9 lifetime record and an 11-3-4-1 record racing on synthetic. He might be old, but he remains in strong form, as indicated by five starts at Turfway Park since December.

Two of those runs were off-the-board finishes in $12,500 and $8,000 claimers, but in a trio of $5,000 claimers, Senor Jobim hasn’t missed the exacta. On Dec. 16, he rallied after a poor start to finish second by a neck in a six-furlong sprint for horses who hadn’t won two races in the last year. On Jan. 31, he again closed ground after a slow start to finish second in a six-furlong $5,000 claimer without conditions. And on Feb. 10, Senor Jobim rallied strongly from off the pace to finish second by three-quarters of a length in a six-furlong race over Wednesday’s track and class level.

Senor Jobim’s tendency to start slowly is problematic, but the five Brisnet Speed ratings he’s posted at Turfway—81, 76, 73, 78, and 79—give him an edge against Wednesday’s field. Senor Jobim appears to have found a race he can win even with a slow start, and if he happens to break alertly, he’ll surely be tough to deny in the homestretch.

That’s why we recommend keying Senor Jobim on top in the Super High 5. For the minor awards, we’ll focus on #3 This Ill Defend (6-1) and #5 Clearing Waivers (5-1); they’ve repeatedly cracked the top four against $5,000 claiming competition at Turfway and should do so again this Wednesday.

Good luck!