Wednesday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: 6-1 shot at Colonial

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Wednesday, Sept. 4, at Horseshoe Indianapolis and Colonial Downs, including a single for Colonial’s $2,139 Pick 6 carryover.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Hoosier Park $10 Money Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second in any eligible race at Hoosier Park each Wednesday.

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 2: Maiden Special Weight (5 1/2 furlongs on dirt, 2:41 p.m. ET)

#6 Praying (8-5) has finished second in each of her first two starts against maiden special weight competition at Churchill Downs and Ellis Park, earning Brisnet Speed ratings of 78 and 73.

The competition should be easier at Horseshoe Indianapolis; the par-winning Brisnet Speed rating for Wednesday’s conditions is only 69. Let’s bet Praying to win and key her over the well-bred first-time starter #1 Taliesin (4-1) in the exacta.

Selections

• #6 Praying (8-5)
• #1 Taliesin (4-1)
• #7 Admit (9-2)

Wagers

• $22 to win on #6 Praying
• $8 Exacta: 6 with 1
  Total: $30

Colonial Downs: Race 4: $25,000 Starter Optional Claiming (1 1/16 miles on turf, 2:55 p.m. ET)

#9 Bodecream (6-1) was a stakes-caliber grass miler back in 2020, when he won the Texas Turf Mile and placed in the Saranac (G3), Hill Prince (G3), and three other stakes.

It’s been a while since Bodecream last displayed that level of form, but he’s still a capable competitor at lower levels. Just last month, he tracked the pace on his way to winning a $25,000 allowance optional claimer racing 1 1/16 miles over the Colonial Downs grass, stamping him as a good fit for Wednesday’s class level.

Let’s place a win bet on Bodecream.

Selections

• #9 Bodecream (6-1)
• #3 Dear Santa (4-1)
• #5 Bassanio (8-1)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #9 Bodecream

Colonial Downs: Race 5: Maiden Special Weight (one mile on turf, 3:25 p.m. ET)

The lightly raced #3 Public Defender (5-2) has been freshened since making her turf debut with a sixth-place finish in a one-mile maiden special weight at Gulfstream Park last December. She’s adding blinkers and Lasix for her comeback and has posted sharp workouts for trainer Jane Cibelli (25% winner with horses returning from layoffs of 90 days or more), so an improved performance may be in the offing.

#1 Come Rain Or Shine (7-5), runner-up over this course, distance, and class level on July 19, can complete the exacta.

Selections

• #3 Public Defender (5-2)
• #1 Come Rain Or Shine (7-5)
• #5 Magic Path (10-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #3 Public Defender
• $5 Exacta: 3 with 1
  Total: $25

Carryover Watch

Colonial Downs: Race 6: $2,139 Pick 6 carryover (3:55 p.m. ET)

Hitting the $1 “Old Dominion 6” Pick 6 at Colonial Downs isn’t easy. The sequences are typically comprised of turf races stuffed to overflowing with entries.

So if you want to win a share of Wednesday’s $2,139 Pick 6 carryover at Colonial Downs, you had best come prepared for a stiff handicapping challenge. The six races have drawn 74 horses (averaging about 12.3 per race) before scratches, which works out to 3,312,400 possible outcomes. Dropping the eight also-eligible entrants from consideration simplifies the challenge only a little, down to 1,728,000 possibilities.

Fortunately, one of the Pick 6 legs is race 9, a $25,000 starter optional claimer for fillies and mares racing 1 1/16 miles on turf. The 10-horse field includes #3 Paper Mansion (2-1), a five-year-old mare with 13 wins from 26 starts.

Paper Mansion is pretty much a winning machine. She’s prevailed in eight of her last nine starts and finished second by a neck in the other. Along the way she’s earned remarkably consistent Brisnet Speed ratings between 80 and 89. During the winter and spring at Tampa Bay Downs, she cleaned up four straight $16,000 starter handicaps over distances from one mile to 1 3/8 miles, and she’s since won $16,000 and $20,000 starter optional claimers at Delaware Park.

A pure pacesetter, Paper Mansion has the speed to stay out of trouble and make her own luck at Colonial Downs, which is always appealing when you’re thinking of backing a favorite. There are also positive jockey and trainer stats in Paper Mansion’s corner — high-percentage trainer Jamie Ness has gone 3-for-9 (33%) at Colonial Downs this meet, while jockey Mychel Sanchez has won at a 22% rate teaming up with Ness over the last two months.

In short, what’s not to like? With her consistent winning form, Paper Mansion looms as a trustworthy Pick 6 single. And if we single her, we’ll reduce the number of Pick 6 outcomes to analyze to either 331,240 or 172,800 (depending on whether you count the also-eligibles), dramatically simplifying the ticket construction process.

Good luck!