Wednesday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: 8-1 shots in a double

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Wednesday, Jan. 10 at Turfway Park, including horses to play in the $9,383 Super High 5 carryover.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• 10x Points on Harness Racing: Earn 10x reward points on all harness racing wagers (excluding show bets) every Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday during the month of January.

Picks and Plays

Turfway Park: Race 1: $30,000 Maiden Claiming (6 1/2 furlongs on Tapeta, 5:55 p.m. ET)

#12 Ramsey (8-1) has been running well against maiden special weight competition on dirt at Horseshoe Indianapolis, finishing second, second, and fifth while earning consistent Brisnet Speed ratings in the 74-76 range.

Ramsey has been freshened since the end of October and heads to Turfway off a trio of bullet workouts (including half a mile in :47), so he looks ready to shine in his first start as a gelding. It helps that trainer Randy Klopp and jockey Alberto Burgos have gone 5-for-15 (33%) teaming up together over the last two months.

At 8-1, a large win bet is in order. We’ll also single Ramsey to start a longshot double wager.

Selections

• #12 Ramsey (8-1)
• #10 Kid Marvelous (3-1)
• #5 Mr Bingo (12-1)

Wagers

• $30 to win on #12 Ramsey
• $5 Double: 12 with 4
  Total: $35

Turfway Park: Race 2: $15,000 Maiden Claiming (one mile on Tapeta, 6:25 p.m. ET)

#4 Lindsey (8-1) has finished eighth and fifth in her last two starts against $30,000 maiden claiming competition on dirt at Keeneland and Churchill Downs. Adding Lasix, dropping in class, and switching to Tapeta all offer potential for improvement, especially when you consider how trainer Ian Wilkes (a 25% winner at Turfway since November) wins at a 28% rate with horses dropping multiple levels down the class ladder.

We’ll bet Lindsey to win and single her to conclude our double wager.

Selections

• #4 Lindsey (8-1)
• #3 Nurse Caralyn (5-1)
• #2 Princess Kalamoh (9-5)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #4 Lindsey (8-1)

Turfway Park: Race 8: Allowance (6 1/2 furlongs on Tapeta, 9:25 p.m. ET)

#9 Curl Girl (5-2) broke her maiden in a 1 1/16-mile maiden special weight during the last spring meet at Keeneland and subsequently finished third in a $100,000 allowance optional claimer at Churchill Downs. But Curl Girl has also shown decent form sprinting; in a 6 1/2-furlong maiden special weight at Santa Anita last winter, she ran third behind Clearly Unhinged, who has since placed in the Test (G1) and La Brea (G1).

Curl Girl should find the competition a bit easier at Turfway, and the fact she hasn’t run since May isn’t too concerning since trainer Philip D’Amato wins at a 21% rate with horses returning from layoffs of 90 days or more.

Let’s bet Curl Girl to win.

Selections

• #9 Curl Girl (5-2)
• #7 Nursekringledances (6-1)
• #10 Lamasco (10-1)

Wagers

• $30 to win on #9 Curl Girl

Carryover Watch

Turfway Park: Race 9: $9,383 Super High 5 carryover (9:55 p.m. ET)

If you want to win a share of Wednesday’s $9,383 Super High 5 carryover at Turfway Park, you’ll have to decipher an extraordinarily challenging race.

The prize pool is up for grabs in Race 9, a $7,500 maiden claimer for three-year-old fillies dashing five furlongs on Tapeta. The race has drawn 14 entries (including two also-eligibles), so assuming a dozen horses face the starter there will be 95,040 possible Super High 5 outcomes.

That’s a lot of combinations, but wait, it gets harder. The vast majority of the entrants are exiting poor performances and dropping in class, so predicting who will factor on Wednesday involves a lot of guesswork. Of the 13 experienced entrants in the field, only #13 Little Music (8-1) exits a top-three finish, having placed second in a $30,000 maiden claimer at Ellis Park back in August. But Little Music is the first also-eligible entrant and isn’t guaranteed to start.

Clearly this won’t be an easy Super High 5 to hit, but if you’re planning to chase the carryover, here are four horses (a mix of favorites and longshots) you’ll want to include on your tickets:

#3 Royal Itch (15-1): Royal Itch has only run once, finishing last of 12 in an Aug. 8 maiden special weight sprinting 5 1/2 furlongs on dirt at Horseshoe Indianapolis. But Royal Itch showed some tactical speed that day and is adding Lasix for her return from a five-month break. Throw in the fact she’s dropping in class and switching to Tapeta, and there are plenty of reasons to believe Royal Itch can improve.

#5 Prix (15-1): After showing speed when finishing fourth and ninth in a pair of $20,000 claimers sprinting six furlongs and 6 1/2 furlongs at Churchill Downs, Prix is eligible to move forward while dropping down in class and distance.

#7 Silver Majesty (5-2): Granted, Silver Majesty has been beaten by double-digit margins in all three of her starts. But those disappointing efforts came against much tougher company. She showed speed for half a mile when finishing 10th in a $50,000 maiden claimer sprinting 6 1/2 furlongs at Turfway last month and should appreciate Wednesday’s shorter distance and easier class level. She’s also adding blinkers and picking up hot apprentice jockey Axel Concepcion, who rides with a five-pound weight allowance.

#11 Interception (3-1): Interception faded after tracking the pace in a one-mile $50,000 maiden claimer at Churchill Downs last time out. But in his debut sprinting six furlongs over the same track and class level, Interception employed identical tactics to finish fourth with a 71 Brisnet Speed rating that ranks as the highest number in Wednesday’s field. Removing blinkers, adding Lasix, and dropping sharply in class and distance are all positives in Interception’s corner.

Good luck!