Wednesday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Churchill’s $5,511 Super High 5 carryover

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Wednesday, May 1, at Churchill Downs and Horseshoe Indianapolis, including horses to play in Churchill’s $5,511 Super High 5 carryover.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Kentucky Derby Week $10 Money Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second or third in any eligible race at Churchill Downs from April 27 through May 4.

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Churchill Downs: Race 7: Allowance (7 1/2 furlongs, 3:47 p.m. ET)

#5 Stunningly (3-1) is a standout from a Brisnet Speed rating perspective. Whereas none of her rivals have earned a Brisnet Speed rating higher than 87, Stunningly’s last two numbers are 95 and 92.

Stunningly hasn’t raced since battling to victory in a one-mile maiden special weight at Saratoga last summer, but Hall of Fame trainer Steve Asmussen wins a solid 17% rate with horses returning from layoffs of 90 days or more, and a lengthy winter/spring work tab highlighted by a couple of bullet five-furlong workouts suggests Stunningly will be fit for a winning return.

Let’s single Stunningly to start a double wager.

Selections

• #5 Stunningly (3-1)
• #1 Mighty Madison (7-2)
• #3 Take Shape (5-1)

Wagers

• $25 Double: 5 with 7

Churchill Downs: Race 8: Isaac Murphy Marathon S. (1 1/2 miles, 4:19 p.m. ET)

#7 Next (4-5) is a freakishly talented long-distance dirt runner. He’s dominated five of his last six starts over distance of 1 1/2 miles and longer, posting Brisnet Speed ratings in the 103-113 range while winning the Brooklyn (G2), Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance (G2), Greenwood Cup (G3), and two other stakes.

Next did falter to third place when starting 2023 in the Isaac Murphy Marathon, regressing to an 88 Brisnet Speed rating, but he may have been short of peak fitness after posting only eight timed workouts in the previous 2 1/2 months. In contrast, Next has posted a dozen workouts in preparation for the 2024 Isaac Murphy Marathon, capped off by a bullet five furlongs in :59 3/5. That’s a far sharper exercise than anything Next posted prior to last year’s Isaac Murphy Marathon.

That’s why we’re going to single Next in our double wager and then throw in an exacta using 2023 Isaac Murphy Marathon runner-up #3 Red Run (9-2) for second place.

Selections

• #7 Next (4-5)
• #3 Red Run (9-2)
• #6 Masqueparade (6-1)

Wagers

• $15 Exacta: 7 with 3

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 7: Maiden Special Weight (5 1/2 furlongs, 5:16 p.m. ET)

Trainer Randy Klopp is off to a hot start at Horseshoe Indianapolis this meet, winning at a 21% rate, and he can keep his momentum going with #6 Gimme Some Money (3-1). The daughter of Preakness (G1) winner Cloud Computing enters off sharp workouts at Horseshoe Indianapolis: a bullet three furlongs from the starting gate in :34 2/5, half a mile from the starting gate in :47 4/5, and a bullet five furlongs from the starting gate in 1:00 4/5.

Under hot jockey Alberto Burgos (a 50% winner teaming up with Klopp over the last two months), Gimme Some Money should be ready to win this maiden special weight for Indiana-bred three-year-old fillies. We’ll keep things simple with a win bet.

Selections

• #6 Gimme Some Money (3-1)
• #9 Lil Gin N Class (5-2)
• #5 When’s Forever (8-1)

Wagers

• $30 to win on #6 Gimme Some Money

Carryover Watch

Churchill Downs: Race 1: $5,511 Super High 5 carryover (2:04 p.m. ET)

The Wednesday card at Churchill Downs kicks off on a high note with a $5,511 carryover up for grabs in the $1 Super High 5.

The prize pool is available to chase in Race 1, a $40,000 claimer for three-year-old fillies dashing 6 1/2 furlongs on dirt. Seven horses have entered, so there are only 2,520 possible Super High 5 outcomes to analyze.

It’s nevertheless a tricky race to handicap because none of the entrants bring especially inspiring form to the table, but slight morning line favorite #5 January Jubilee (3-1) looks interesting. While she’s failed to factor in two starts against starter optional claiming foes, she hasn’t missed the exacta in three starts against claiming and maiden claiming competition. She romped by 4 1/2 lengths in a $20,000 maiden claimer sprinting 6 1/2 furlongs at Churchill Downs last fall, won a $45,000-$35,000 claimer sprinting six furlongs at Oaklawn during the winter, and recently rallied to finish second in a six-furlong $40,000 claimer at Oaklawn.

January Jubilee is sticking to the $40,000 level on Wednesday, and with three straight Brisnet Speed ratings of 72 under her belt, she’s a good fit for this field. She can’t be considered a lock to win, but a top-three finish is surely within reach.

#2 Singsational (7-2) is another logical contender. She squared off against January Jubilee in the above-mentioned $40,000 claimer at Oaklawn, finishing fourth after breaking slowly and making a meaningful mid-race move. Singsational finished only half a length behind January Jubilee and may be capable of turning the tables with a better break at Churchill Downs.

#5 Mitole’s Legacy (5-1) shouldn’t be underestimated either, not after wiring a $30,000 maiden claimer sprinting six furlongs at Oaklawn by 4 1/4 lengths with a 75 Brisnet Speed rating. By emphasizing January Jubilee, Singsational, and Mitole’s Legacy in the Super High 5, we should have every chance to assemble a winning ticket.

It should be noted, however, that if there are any scratches from Race 1, that will reduce the field below the seven-horse minimum for offering Super High 5 wagering at Churchill Downs. If that’s the case, then the carryover will instead be offered on Race 2, a 4 1/2-furlong dirt maiden special weight for juveniles. (Assuming, of course, that Race 2 goes off with at least seven starters.)

In Race 2, we would be keen to key #3 Johnny Come Lately (3-1) on top of our Super High 5 tickets. Since 2021, trainer Wesley Ward has gone 3-for-6 (50%) debuting juveniles at Churchill Downs on or before May 15, which suggests Johnny Come Lately will be ready to fire in his first start.

Certainly Johnny Come Lately has put together a flashy work tab, including a couple of bullet three-furlong breezes at Keeneland. And check out his strong win-early pedigree—he’s a son of Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (G1) winner Hootenanny (who won his debut as an April juvenile at Keeneland) out of Down The Well, who has previously foaled juvenile stakes winner Karak (a May debut winner), Mangione (a debut-winning April juvenile at Keeneland), and stakes winner Aqua Frio (who placed in multiple stakes at age two). Mangione is actually a full-brother to Johnny Come Lately.

Coupling this strong pedigree with Ward’s training record, Johnny Come Lately looks ready to shine in Wednesday’s second race at Churchill Downs. In fact, whether there’s a Super High 5 carryover on the table or not, we’ll place a win bet on Johnny Come Lately:

• Churchill Downs, Race 2: $30 to win on #3 Johnny Come Lately

Good luck!