Wednesday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Churchill’s $9,438 Super High 5

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Wednesday, Nov. 6 at Churchill Downs, Horseshoe Indianapolis, and Charles Town, including analysis of Churchill’s $9,438 Super High 5 carryover.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• New Players $200 Sign-Up Bonus: Open your TwinSpires.com account using the offer code BET200 to start earning a $200 bonus.
• Churchill Downs $3,000 Three Pick 3 Hit It & Split It: Hit three Pick 3s at Churchill Downs on any day of the fall meet to split a $3,000 daily prize pool, starting Oct. 30.
• Tournaments November 25% Bankroll Cash Back: Wager your entire starting tournament bankroll during the duration of selected tournaments throughout November and receive 25% cash back. Today’s tournament is the $80 Churchill Downs Feeder.

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Churchill Downs: Race 3: $30,000 Maiden Claiming (1 1/16 miles on dirt, 1:58 p.m. ET)

#9 Rando (4-1) has finished seventh and sixth in her first two starts against maiden special weight competition, earning Brisnet Speed ratings of 65 and 70 that compare favorably to the par winning number (70) for Wednesday’s conditions.

Dropping down to the $30,000 maiden claiming level while adding blinkers can put Rando in the hunt for victory. Let’s bet this chestnut filly to win.

Selections

• #9 Rando (4-1)
• #6 Mezcalifornia (3-1)
• #8 Magnetic Beach (6-1)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #9 Rando

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 4: Maiden Special Weight (one mile on turf, 3:43 p.m. ET)

#5 Triumphant Spirit (5-2) put forth a gallant effort over this course, distance, and class level on Sept. 26, rallying into strong closing fractions to finish third by 1 3/4 lengths. The 68 Brisnet Speed rating she earned tops the par winning number (67) for Wednesday’s conditions.

If Triumphant Spirit gets a better setup in her second local start, she can graduate for hot trainer Brendan Walsh, a 28% winner at Horseshoe Indianapolis this meet. A win bet is warranted.

Selections

• #5 Triumphant Spirit (5-2)
• #6 Added Touch (10-1)
• #11 D’argento Bolt (6-1)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #5 Triumphant Spirit

Charles Town: Race 6: Maiden Special Weight (4 1/2 furlongs on dirt, 9:21 p.m. ET)

#6 Hit the Snooze (9-5) has set the pace in all three of her starts, including two sprinting 4 1/2 furlongs at Charles Town. That’s a positive since pacesetters have won a whopping 63% of 4 1/2-furlong sprints at Charles Town this meet.

Hit the Snooze has yet to miss the trifecta and brings sharp Brisnet Speed ratings to the table for hot trainer Anthony Farrior, a 24% winner at Charles Town this meet. Let’s bet Hit the Snooze over her unraced stablemate #4 Coal Country (9-2) in the exacta.

Selections

• #6 Hit the Snooze (9-5)
• #4 Coal Country (9-2)
• #2 Ginger Twist (10-1)

Wagers

• $15 Exacta: 6 with 4

Carryover Watch

Churchill Downs: Race 1: $9,438 Super High 5 carryover (1:00 p.m. ET)

The racing week at Churchill Downs kicks off on Wednesday with a $9,438 Super High 5 carryover up for grabs.

The prize pool for the $1 wager is available to chase in Race 1, assuming the seven-horse field doesn’t suffer any scratches. Super High 5 wagering at Churchill Downs is only offered on races featuring seven or more starters.

Race 1 is a $30,000 maiden claimer taking place over 1 1/16 miles on dirt. It’s a tough race to analyze, because there aren’t any standouts. Many of the entrants enter off uninspiring performances, and those who ran well last time out did so against easier competition.

Ultimately, the horse we recommend building tickets around is #7 Not Normal (4-1). Sure, he’s out of form at the moment, failing to finish better than sixth in any of his last five starts. But he’s been competing against much tougher competition than he’ll face on Wednesday and has earned some decent Brisnet Speed ratings while doing so. Furthermore, two of his recent defeats came on turf.

Not Normal showed more spark in his latest effort, setting honest fractions in a $62,500 claimer at Keeneland before tiring to finish sixth. Descending to the $30,000 level could make a big difference for this four-year-old colt, considering trainer Conor Murphy wins at a 29% rate with horses dropping multiple levels down the class ladder.

We recommend counting on Not Normal to finish either first or second in the Super High 5. Emphasize horses like #1 I’m Your Man (7-2) and #2 Shogun Be Fast (9-2) in the other top slots, and you should have a decent shot to cash a ticket on a reasonable budget.

If there is a scratch from Race 1, then the carryover will be offered in Race 2, assuming it goes off with at least seven starters.

The $50,000 starter allowance has drawn a field of eight to sprint six furlongs on dirt, and live contenders abound. We believe #8 Trust Daddy (3-1) has a chance to spring a mild upset. The speedy five-year-old has been riding a hot streak, winning a six-furlong $20,000 claimer at Del Mar before wiring a seven-furlong $25,000 claimer at Keeneland.

Those victories yielded strong Brisnet Speed ratings of 92 and 91, and Trust Daddy was claimed out of his Keeneland win by Hall of Fame trainer Steve Asmussen. We suggest keying Trust Daddy on top of your Super High 5 tickets while counting on the consistent morning-line favorite #5 B Sudd (8-5) to finish either second or third.

Good luck!