Wednesday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Double-digit longshots at Turfway

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Wednesday, Jan. 17 at Turfway Park, along with tickets for the $4,757 Super High 5 carryover at Tampa Bay Downs.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• 10x Points on Harness Racing: Earn 10x reward points on all harness racing wagers (excluding show bets) every Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday during the month of January.

Picks and Plays

Turfway Park: Race 1: $15,000 Maiden Claiming (5 1/2 furlongs on Tapeta, 5:55 p.m. ET)

#2 Just Like You (12-1) has posted a couple of bullet workouts in preparation for her debut, including a half-mile in :48. Trainer Cirilo Gorostieta has saddled two runners-up from six starters at Turfway Park since November, and it’s worth noting Gorostieta’s lone first-time starter at Turfway since 2019 finished second by a nose at odds of 16-1.

That narrow loser was ridden by Fernando De La Cruz, who has the mount on Just Like You. There are enough positives here to believe Just Like You can outrun her 12-1 morning line odds and vie for victory, so we’ll place a win bet and call it a day.

Selections

• #2 Just Like You (12-1)
• #5 Boyne Valley (5-2)
• #7 Outrageously (8-1)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #2 Just Like You

Turfway Park: Race 3: $8,000 Claiming (six furlongs on Tapeta, 6:55 p.m. ET)

#5 Cut Glass (20-1) has cracked the trifecta in four of his five starts at Turfway Park, including a trio of $8,000 claimers last year. His recent form on dirt hasn’t been as sharp, but Cut Glass was claimed out of his latest race by trainer Randy Klopp, a 21% winner with new claiming acquisitions.

Klopp has gelded Cut Glass and sent the son of Carpe Diem through a trio of bullet workouts at Horseshoe Indianapolis, including a swift half-mile in :47. There are plenty of reasons to believe Cut Glass can recapture his best form on Wednesday, so his 20-1 morning line odds are enticing.

A win bet is in order.

Selections

• #5 Cut Glass (20-1)
• #8 Jareth (3-1)
• #4 Haig Point (7-2)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #5 Cut Glass (20-1)

Turfway Park: Race 7: $5,000 Maiden Claiming (six furlongs on Tapeta, 8:55 p.m. ET)

#3 Ancient Relic (12-1) hasn’t shown much so far, though she’s been facing tougher competition and did manage to run third in a $25,000 maiden claimer over the Gulfstream Park turf course last year.

Ancient Relic has been freshened since July, when she made a middle move before tiring to finish sixth in a one-mile and 70-yard maiden special weight on dirt at Belterra Park. The daughter of two-time Horse of the Year California Chrome may appreciate dropping down sharply in class and distance for this $5,000 claimer.

At 12-1, Ancient Relic is worthy of a win bet.

Selections

• #3 Ancient Relic (12-1)
• #10 Allinthecall (3-1)
• #2 Video Princess (7-2)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #3 Ancient Relic

Carryover Watch

Tampa Bay Downs: Race 1: $4,757 Super High 5 carryover (12:20 p.m. ET)

Hitting a Super High 5 isn’t easy. Selecting the top five finishers in a horse race is a challenging pursuit even in small fields. A race with seven horses has 42 possible exacta outcomes, but a Super High 5 in the same race features 2,520 possible outcomes.

The good news is, winning a share of Wednesday’s $4,757 Super High 5 carryover at Tampa Bay Downs looks relatively straightforward. The prize pool is available to chase in Race 1, a $10,000 maiden claimer for older horses racing one mile and 40 yards on dirt. Only seven horses have entered, and three are double-digit longshots who seem unlikely to challenge for anything more than fourth or fifth place.

That leaves us to sort out the favorites. Let’s review their credentials:

#1 Romping Runner (5-2): He’s never run farther than six furlongs, but Romping Runner boasts sharp Brisnet Speed ratings and exits a third-place finish in a $12,500 maiden claimer at Gulfstream Park. He’s making his first start for the hot jockey/trainer duo of Samy Camacho and Gerald Bennett, so victory is within reach while stretching out in distance and dropping in class.

#2 Unxpected Tiger (9-2): After cracking the trifecta in five straight starts against $6,250 and $10,000 maiden claiming competition, Unxpected Tiger is a good fit for Wednesday’s conditions, even if his 0-for-18 lifetime record hints he has a tendency to settle for minor awards. Five straight Brisnet Speed ratings in the 62-69 range suggest he’ll be tough to keep out of the top three.

#3 Gabbysonholiday (9-5): Recent starts against $15,000 and $30,000 maiden claiming competition on synthetic have been disappointing, but in his lone dirt start to date, Gabbysonholiday rallied to finish second in a $30,000 maiden claimer sprinting six furlongs at Churchill Downs. Descending into a $10,000 claimer can put Gabbysonholiday in win contention for the hot jockey/trainer duo of Antonio Gallardo and William Morey.

#7 Kid Emerald (4-1): After failing to crack the top three in his first six starts on turf and synthetic, Kid Emerald switched to dirt for a $10,000 maiden claimer racing 1 1/16 miles at Tampa Bay Downs last month. The result? An encouraging third-place finish. Kid Emerald finished two lengths behind Unxpected Tiger that day, but stumbled at the start and is eligible to improve in his third start for hot trainer Jose D’Angelo.

Here’s how we’ll bet the Super High 5:

• $1 Super High 5: 1,3 with 1,2,3,7 with 1,2,3,7 with 1,2,3,7 with 4,5,6 ($36)
• $1 Super High 5: 1,3 with 1,2,3,7 with 1,2,3,7 with 4 with 1,2,3,7 ($12)
  Total: $48

Good luck!