Wednesday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Drum Roll Please returns at Parx

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Wednesday, Sept. 25 at Churchill Downs, Horseshoe Indianapolis, and Parx Racing, including tickets for Churchill’s $5,664 Super High 5 carryover.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Hoosier Park $10 Money Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second in any eligible race at Hoosier Park each Wednesday.

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Churchill Downs: Race 5: Maiden Special Weight (six furlongs on dirt, 2:45 p.m. ET)

#8 Hoff (3-1) debuted with a runner-up finish over this class level sprinting 6 1/2 furlongs over the European-style turf course at Kentucky Downs. As a son of champion two-year-old Uncle Mo (the sire of classic winners Nyquist and Mo Donegal), Hoff has the potential to shine while trying dirt.

Throw in the fact Hall of Fame trainer Steve Asmussen wins at a solid 19% rate with horses switching from turf to dirt, and Hoff is worthy of a win bet.

Selections

• #8 Hoff (3-1)
• #6 Landing Craft (4-1)
• #1 Moral (8-1)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #8 Hoff

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 3: Maiden Special Weight (five furlongs on turf, 3:12 p.m. ET)

Trainer Paulo Lobo has done well debuting two-year-olds on dirt at Horseshoe Indianapolis this year, going 2-for-4 (50%). So let’s take a shot betting Lobo’s unraced juvenile #4 Team Troy (3-1).

A son of Mohaymen, who won multiple Grade 2 stakes at age two, Team Troy has put together a decent work tab and doesn’t appear to be meeting the toughest field on Wednesday. We’ll keep things simple with a win bet on Team Troy.

Selections

• #4 Team Troy (3-1)
• #1 Case Ace (8-1)
• #7 Moon Sniper (5-1)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #4 Team Troy

Parx Racing: Race 9: Allowance (one mile and 70 yards on dirt, 4:20 p.m. ET)

#1 Drum Roll Please (6-5) performed well on the 2023-24 Road to the Kentucky Derby, winning the Jerome S. and finishing third in the Remsen (G2). He was compromised by a speed-favoring track in the Remsen, but nevertheless rallied to finish only 4 3/4 lengths behind future Belmont (G1) winner Dornoch and Kentucky Derby (G1) runner-up Sierra Leone.

Drum Roll Please hasn’t run since January, but he’s put together a strong work tab in preparation for his return, including a bullet five furlongs over the Belmont Park training track in :59. If Drum Roll Please can recapture or improve upon his form from the Derby trail, he can win his comeback for fun.

#4 Check My Six (3-1) and #5 Warrior’s Vendetta (7-2) can battle to complete the exacta.

Selections

• #1 Drum Roll Please (6-5)
• #4 Check My Six (3-1)
• #5 Warrior’s Vendetta (7-2)

Wagers

• $15 Exacta: 1 with 4,5 ($30)

Carryover Watch

Churchill Downs: Race 2: $5,664 Super High 5 carryover (1:14 p.m. ET)

The racing week at Churchill Downs gets underway on Wednesday with a $5,664 carryover up for grabs in the $1 Super High 5.

The opening race on the card drew only six horses (one fewer than necessary to offer Super High 5 wagering), so the carryover is available to chase in race 2, a $50,000 maiden claimer for two-year-old fillies racing 1 1/16 miles on dirt. With seven horses in the entries, there are 2,520 possible outcomes.

It’s a tricky race to handicap because none of the horses have run in a dirt route before and many of them are changing class levels. Figuring out which horses will run well — or not — is difficult.

One filly who appears poised to fire a competitive shot is #3 Spunderella (7-2). The daughter of Hard Spun debuted in a six-furlong maiden special weight at Ellis Park and didn’t show much, finishing eighth. But both the winner and the runner-up returned to win next-time out, so Spunderella was facing tough competition. She’s posted a couple of bullet workouts since then, so dropping in class for trainer Michael Puhich (a 17% winner with second-time starters) can put Spunderella in the hunt for victory.

Here’s another name to know: #6 Joyful Josephine (3-1), a daughter of hot young sire Vekoma. Joyful Josephine debuted in a different six-furlong maiden special weight at Ellis Park, finishing seventh after a bumping start. Trainer Kenny McPeek wins at a respectable 16% rate with second-time starters and at a 22% rate with horses dropping from maiden special weight to maiden claiming company, so there are reasons to believe Joyful Josephine can improve significantly on Wednesday.

We recommend building Super High 5 tickets around Spunderella and Joyful Josephine, counting on one to win and the other to finish second or third. Underneath, emphasize #1 Mizmalice (4-1), who debuted with a fifth-place finish (beaten only 3 1/2 lengths) in a $50,000 maiden optional claimer racing one mile over the Ellis Park turf course. Her pedigree suggests switching to dirt won’t be an issue.

• $1 Super High 5: 3,6 with 3,6 with 1 with 2,4,5 with 2,4,5,7 ($18)
• $1 Super High 5: 3,6 with 3,6 with 2,4,5 with 1 with 2,4,5,7 ($18)
• $1 Super High 5: 3,6 with 1 with 3,6 with 2,4,5 with 2,4,5,7 ($18)
• $1 Super High 5: 3,6 with 2,4,5 with 3,6 with 1 with 2,4,5,7 ($18)
  Total: $72

One final note: If there are any scratches from race 2, Super High 5 wagering will be canceled and the carryover will instead be offered in race 3, provided that race goes off with seven or more starters.

Race 3 is a $16,000 claimer for fillies and mares sprinting six furlongs on dirt. #1 Princess Is Olivia (7-2), #2 Sherbet Fountain (9-2), and #3 Miss Tappy Tone (4-1) are the only entrants who have recently cracked the 80 Brisnet Speed rating plateau, and they’ve each done so multiple times. They look like the fastest entrants and should be emphasized in the Super High 5.

Good luck!