Wednesday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Five-figure Pick 5 carryovers

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Wednesday, Sept. 18 at Churchill Downs and Horseshoe Indianapolis, along with horses to play in five-figure Pick 5 carryovers at Delaware Park.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Assiniboia Downs $10 Money Back: Receive refunds on single-horse win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second in any of the four final races each race day at Assiniboia Downs from Sept. 9-24.
• Hoosier Park $10 Money Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second in any eligible race at Hoosier Park each Wednesday.

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 2: Maiden Special Weight (one mile on dirt, 2:41 p.m. ET)

#5 Touchdown Rocket (2-1) showed speed in his debut sprinting seven furlongs against maiden special weight competition at Ellis Park, sticking within one length of the pace before tiring to finish fourth by six lengths.

Touchdown Rocket figures to find the competition a bit easier at Horseshoe Indianapolis. His pedigree suggests he’ll relish stretching out over one mile, and trainer Brad Cox wins at a 29% rate with horses running long for the first time, so changing distances can also help Touchdown Rocket deliver victory.

We’ll keep things simple with a large win bet.

Selections

• #5 Touchdown Rocket (2-1)
• #7 Riddle Solver (9-2)
• #3 Shallus (5-2)

Wagers

• $40 to win on #5 Touchdown Rocket

Churchill Downs: Race 8: $125,000 Allowance Optional Claiming (six furlongs on dirt, 4:22 p.m. ET)

Three-year-old #9 Pure Force (9-2) completely misfired in Saratoga’s Amsterdam (G2) last time out, finishing last out of five. But he’d previously gone 2-for-2 at Churchill Downs to open his career, beating older rivals in a 6 1/2-furlong maiden special weight before trouncing his own age group in a seven-furlong $100,000 allowance optional claimer.

Those victories yielded Brisnet Speed ratings of 95 and 94, fast enough to suggest Pure Force is a win threat while tackling older horses in his return to Churchill Downs. Let’s bet Pure Force to win and single him to start a double wager.

Selections

• #9 Pure Force (9-2)
• #10 Save the Trees (7-2)
• #7 Billal (3-1)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #9 Pure Force
• $5 Double: 9 with 2
  Total: $30

Churchill Downs: Race 9: Maiden Special Weight (one mile on dirt, 4:54 p.m. ET)

Since 2021, trainer Kenny McPeek has compiled an excellent 13-3-1-2 (23%) record debuting juveniles in dirt routes at Churchill Downs. One of those winners came last week with Handsome Pants, who scored at 10-1.

Perhaps McPeek can pick up another win with #2 Desperate Proposal (10-1). The son of Gift Box has the pedigree to handle one mile and enters off a sharp half-mile workout in :47 4/5 at Churchill Downs. Brian Hernandez Jr. (a 20% winner teaming up with McPeek over the last two months) is named to ride, so there’s a lot to like about Desperate Proposal, including his 10-1 morning line odds.

Let’s bet Desperate Proposal to win and single him to conclude our double wager.

Selections

• #2 Desperate Proposal (10-1)
• #7 Deputy A. P. (12-1)
• #5 Real Conviction (15-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #2 Desperate Proposal

Carryover Watch

Delaware Park: Race 3: $14,299 Pick 5 carryover (1:30 p.m. ET)
Delaware Park: Race 4: $10,004 Pick 5 carryover (2 p.m. ET)

You can take your pick of two five-figure, non-jackpot Pick 5 carryovers to chase on Wednesday at Delaware Park. Or you can play them both, since the two sequences largely overlap to share four common races.

The 50-cent Middle Pick 5 beginning in Race 3 boasts the larger prize pool: $14,299. But the 50-cent Late Pick 5 starting in Race 4 is also lucrative with a $10,004 carryover.

The feature event on the card is Race 6, the $125,000 Obeah S. for fillies and mares racing 1 1/16 miles on dirt. With a dozen horses in the entries, it’s a tough race to handicap. John Mucciolo of TwinSpires is backing #12 Miss New York (10-1), a longshot coming off an impressive victory in a $55,000 allowance optional claimer at Laurel Park. That effort marked Miss New York’s first route race of 2024, and the four-year-old filly still has upside for high-percentage trainer Jorge Delgado.

But Pick 6 bettors might want to spread a bit deeper. For example, multiple stakes winner #9 Saddle Up Jessie (5-2) is a must-use contender after placing second in the Delaware H. (G2) two starts back. Last time out, she ran second in the 1 1/16-mile Caesar’s Wish S. at Laurel Park against Malibu Beauty, a six-time stakes winner currently riding a three-race win streak.

#5 Ragtime Belle (12-1) is worth considering too. On Sept. 5, in her first dirt race of 2024, she smashed a one-mile $32,000 allowance optional claimer at Delaware Park by 12 lengths, earning a sharp 94 Brisnet Speed rating.

In contrast, Race 4—an $8,000 starter optional claimer taking place over six furlongs on dirt—offers a possible single in the form of #4 He’s in Charge (4-1).

He’s in Charge hasn’t missed the trifecta in his last five dirt sprints, and his last two—both at Delaware Park—have yielded strong Brisnet Speed ratings of 93 and 87. On July 18, he won a six-furlong dash by 4 1/4 lengths.

The morning line favorite in Race 4, #8 Sassy Lad (2-1), has won three straight races at Penn National in Pennsylvania, but the resulting Brisnet Speed ratings (80, 88, and 85) rank him a bit below He’s in Charge’s peak. Throw in the fact He’s in Charge has the red-hot jockey/trainer duo of Jaime Rodriguez and Jamie Ness in his corner, and he’s a compelling choice to single in both Pick 5 carryovers.

Good luck!