Wednesday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Golden Cookie looks live at 5-1

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Wednesday, July 24 at Delaware Park and Saratoga, along with a horse to single in the $5,237 Pick 5 carryover at Penn National.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Hoosier Park $10 Money Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second in any eligible race at Hoosier Park every Wednesday in July.

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Delaware Park: Race 3: Maiden Special Weight (5 1/2 furlongs on dirt, 1:30 p.m. ET)

#1 Golden Cookie (5-1) is a two-year-old son of juvenile Grade 1 winner Violence, who sires a lofty 17% winners from first-time starters. Golden Cookie has posted a couple of bullet half-mile workouts at Delaware Park, including one from the starting gate in :48 3/5, and victory on debut is a distinct possibility. After all, trainer Michael Stidham has gone 13-for-64 (20%) saddling first-time starters at Delaware Park since 2019.

We’ll keep our strategy simple with a win bet on Golden Cookie.

Selections

• #1 Golden Cookie (5-1)
• #4 Lou’s Birthday (9-5)
• #2 Sacred Thunder (5-2)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #1 Golden Cookie

Saratoga: Race 2: Maiden Special Weight (5 1/2 furlongs on turf, 1:44 p.m. ET)

#10 Out On Bail (4-1) has finished second and third in his first two starts against New York-bred maiden special weight competition on dirt at Aqueduct. His third-place finish came against Mo Plex, who returned to win the Sanford (G3) at Saratoga.

Now Out On Bail is switching to turf, a potentially positive move since his hot young sire, Tiz the Law, is siring 40% winners on turf. Throw in the fact Out On Bail is picking up five-time Eclipse Award-winning jockey Irad Ortiz Jr., and this gray juvenile looks ready to post a breakthrough victory.

Selections

• #10 Out On Bail (4-1)
• #9 Army Proud (6-1)
• #1 Pandemic Hero (9-2)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #10 Out On Bail

Saratoga: Race 4: $30,000 Maiden Claiming (one mile on dirt, 2:52 p.m. ET)

#1 Big Ego (6-5) failed to seriously factor in his first three starts against maiden special weight competition, but when he dropped into a $40,000 maiden claimer at Saratoga last month, he fared much better. After setting and tracking the pace in the one-mile contest, Big Ego stayed on to finish second with a career-best 82 Brisnet Speed rating.

Big Ego was claimed out of that effort by Linda Rice. Now he’s dropping into a $30,000 maiden claimer, a positive angle since Rice wins at a powerful 39% rate with horses descending in class off a claim. None of Big Ego’s rivals have ever earned a Brisnet Speed rating higher than 78, so the door is wide open for Big Ego to secure his first victory.

#9 Janssen (6-1) can round out the exacta.

Selections

• #1 Big Ego (6-5)
• #9 Janssen (6-1)
• #10 Irie Man (12-1)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #1 Big Ego
• $5 Exacta: 1 with 9
  Total: $30

Carryover Watch

Penn National: Race 2: $5,237 Pick 5 carryover (6:14 p.m. ET)

The Wednesday evening card at Penn National is highlighted by a non-jackpot $5,237 carryover in the $1 Pick 5.

Mathematically speaking, the sequence doesn’t appear difficult to hit. The five races have drawn only 33 horses in total (averaging 6.6 per race), and no field features more than seven entries. It works out to only 12,348 possible Pick 5 outcomes, a thoroughly manageable number.

We can simplify the process of assembling tickets even further by singling #1 Mo Traffic (9-5) in Race 5, the penultimate leg of the Pick 5. It’s a $5,000 claimer for fillies and mares who have never won two races, and while seven horses have entered the six-furlong dirt sprint, Mo Traffic looks like a standout.

First off, Mo Traffic owns the highest Brisnet Speed ratings in the field. Whereas none of her rivals have posted a number higher than 73, Mo Traffic has posted numbers of 73, 74, 74, and 75 in four of her seven career starts.

Mo Traffic also posted a respectable 69 when finishing fourth in a $12,500 claimer for non-winners of two races sprinting six furlongs at Laurel Park last month. She was beaten only half a length in a large 11-horse field.

Descending to the $5,000 level should make Mo Traffic tough to beat for trainer Diane Morici, a 25% winner with horses dropping multiple levels down the class ladder. And it’s worth noting Mo Traffic is removing blinkers, a 21% winning move for Morici.

Cementing Mo Traffic as the horse to beat is this stat: none of her rivals have posted a Brisnet Speed rating higher than 68 this year. Not only is Mo Traffic the fastest horse in the field from a lifetime perspective, she’s the fastest runner in 2024 with numbers of 73 and 69 under her belt.

For all these reasons, we view Mo Traffic as a trustworthy Pick 5 single. By singling her, we can reduce the number of Pick 5 possibilities to consider down to 1,764 across the remaining four races, at which point assembling a competitive ticket on a modest budget should be easy.

Good luck!