Wednesday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Keeneland’s $265,935 Pick 5 carryover

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Wednesday, Oct. 9 at Horseshoe Indianapolis and Delaware Park, along with horses to play in the $265,935 Pick 5 carryover at Keeneland.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• New Players $200 Sign-Up Bonus: Open your TwinSpires.com account using the offer code BET200 to start earning a $200 bonus.
• Hoosier Park $10 Money Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second in any eligible race at Hoosier Park each Wednesday.
• Horseshoe Indianapolis 15% Profit Boost: Receive a 15% boost (up to $25 per day) on your winning win, exacta, trifecta, and superfecta wagers at Horseshoe Indianapolis on Wednesdays in October.
• Keeneland $2,500 Late Pick 5 Hit It & Split It: Hit the Late Pick 5 at Keeneland on any day of the October meet to earn your share of a $2,500 daily prize pool.

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 2: Maiden Special Weight (one mile on turf, 2:41 p.m. ET)

#6 Oscarworthy (6-1) has hit the board in three of his four starts against maiden special weight competition at Gulfstream Park and Ellis Park. Last time out, he showed some tactical speed on his way to finishing fourth in a 1 1/8-mile grass contest at Ellis.

Oscarworthy should find the competition a bit easier at Horseshoe Indianapolis, where trainer Brian Lynch has gone 3-for-8 (38%) on turf this meet. Throw in the fact Oscarworthy is picking up apprentice jockey Irving Moncada (who rides with a seven-pound weight allowance), and a win bet is in order.

Selections

• #6 Oscarworthy (6-1)
• #7 Redemption Speight (5-2)
• #4 Royce (15-1)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #6 Oscarworthy

Delaware Park: Race 7: White Clay Creek S. (one mile on dirt, 3:30 p.m. ET)

#3 Caprice (3-2) is unbeaten and unchallenged in three starts at Delaware Park. The talented two-year-old filly crushed non-state restricted competition in her debut, then conquered Delaware-breds in the Blue Hen S. and Small Wonder S.

Caprice looks ready to snatch a third straight stakes win even while stepping outside the Delaware-bred ranks for the White Clay Creek. Let’s single her to start a large double wager.

Selections

• #3 Caprice (3-1)
• #1 Not Too Late (12-1)
• #8 Piggy Tales Up (7-2)

Wagers

• $30 Double: 3 with 10

Delaware Park: Race 8: Rocky Run S. (one mile on dirt, 4 p.m. ET)

#10 It’s Hammertime (2-1) hasn’t been remotely challenged in two starts at Delaware Park. He crushed a non-state restricted maiden special weight by eight lengths, then took the First Dash S. for Delaware-breds by five lengths.

These victories yielded strong Brisnet Speed ratings of 82 and 95. The latter number is six points higher than the best number belonging to any of the other Rocky Run entrants.

It’s Hammertime is the horse to beat even while stepping outside the Delaware-bred ranks, so we’ll single him to conclude our double wager and key him over #2 Tony Eclipse (9-2) and #4 Baby Dukes (7-2) in an exacta for good measure.

Selections

• #10 It’s Hammertime (2-1)
• #2 Tony Eclipse (9-2)
• #4 Baby Duke (7-2)

Wagers

• $15 Exacta: 10 with 2,4 ($30)

Carryover Watch

Keeneland: Race 1: $265,935 Pick 5 carryover (1 p.m. ET)

The 50-cent Early Pick 5 sequence at Keeneland proved unsolvable last Sunday. All five favorites were beaten, and longshots starting at 22-1 and 49-1 visited the winner’s circle. When the dust settled, no one held a winning ticket, triggering a simply massive $265,935 Early Pick 5 carryover for Wednesday’s card.

We’ve analyzed the entries and identified a pair of compelling horses to include on your tickets:

Race 2: #1 Idiosyncrasies (6-1)

First-time starter Idiosyncrasies looks like a threat to win this $20,000 maiden claimer taking place over six furlongs on dirt.

Idiosyncrasies is conditioned by high-percentage trainer Wesley Ward, who wins at a 33% rate with horses debuting in maiden claimers. Ward is known for his abundant success saddling two-year-old debut winners, but he also does well with three-year-olds debuting in dirt sprints, going 3-for-7 (43%) with such runners since 2021. Three of the beaten runners finished in the top three, giving Ward an 86% in-the-money rate.

Idiosyncrasies has put together an encouraging work tab highlighted by a bullet half-mile from the Keeneland starting gate in :47 4/5. Throw in the fact he’ll be ridden by Hall of Fame jockey John Velazquez (a 30% winner teaming up with Ward over the last two months), and the stage is set for Idiosyncrasies to outrun his 6-1 morning-line odds.

Race 4: #1 Stage Left (2-1)

The favorite to win this $16,000 claimer over 6 1/2 furlongs on dirt is Stage Left, and it’s easy to understand why. The eight-year-old gelding has been on a roll over the past couple of years, winning multiple stakes in 2023 in addition to placing third in the 2023 Runhappy (G3) and 2024 Tom Fool H. (G3).

On Aug. 28, Stage Left returned from a layoff with a runner-up finish in a six-furlong $34,000 starter optional claimer at Delaware Park. He was beaten only by the red-hot Spikezone (who has won eight of his 11 starts this year) and earned a sharp 96 Brisnet Speed rating.

Stage Left subsequently ran into trouble and lost his jockey at the start of a Sept. 19 $80,000 allowance optional claimer at Aqueduct. He’s bounced back with a three-furlong workout and should be a formidable win threat while dropping into a $16,000 claimer at Keeneland. None of his rivals have recently posted a Speed rating as high as 96, so if Stage Left maintains the form from his Delaware Park comeback, he can deliver victory.

Good luck!