Wednesday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Keeneland’s $301,896 Pick 5 carryover

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Wednesday, Oct. 23 at Mahoning Valley, Horseshoe Indianapolis, and Presque Isle Downs, along with analysis of the $301,896 Pick 5 carryover at Keeneland.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• New Players $200 Sign-Up Bonus: Open your TwinSpires.com account using the offer code BET200 to start earning a $200 bonus.
• Hoosier Park $10 Money Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second in any eligible race at Hoosier Park each Wednesday.
• Horseshoe Indianapolis 15% Profit Boost: Receive a 15% boost (up to $25 per day) on your winning win, exacta, trifecta, and superfecta wagers at Horseshoe Indianapolis on Wednesdays in October.
• Keeneland $2,500 Late Pick 5 Hit It & Split It: Hit the Late Pick 5 at Keeneland on any day of the October meet to earn your share of a $2,500 daily prize pool.

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Mahoning Valley: Race 1: $5,000 Claiming (six furlongs on dirt, 12:55 p.m. ET)

#1 Panthera’s Fate (2-1) has cracked the exacta in three straight starts sprinting at nearby Thistledown. After wiring a $5,000 maiden claimer by 12 1/4 lengths, Panthera’s Fate finished second in back-to-back $7,500 claimers for horses who have never won two races.

Dropping into a $5,000 claimer for non-winners of two races should allow Panthera’s Fate to prevail. He owns two of the highest Brisnet Speed ratings in Wednesday’s field, and his early speed should prove well-suited to this track and distance.

We’ll keep things simple with a win bet on Panthera’s Fate.

Selections

• #1 Panthera’s Fate (2-1)
• #6 Morales Little Kid (4-1)
• #5 Awesome Fantasy (5-2)

Wagers

• $30 to win on #1 Panthera’s Fate

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 2: $7,500 Maiden Claiming (six furlongs on dirt, 2:41 p.m. ET)

Two horses loom as the primary win threats in this $7,500 maiden claiming sprint.

#6 Free Rambling Man (9-5) rallied to finish third by half a length over this track, distance, and class level two starts back, then ran third by 5 3/4 lengths in a $12,500 maiden claimer over 1 1/16 miles at Horseshoe Indianapolis. Dropping back down in class and distance should place him in win contention.

Meanwhile, #2 Soul Snatcher (5-2) is a viable challenger after finishing second in $16,000 and $15,000 maiden claimers at Ellis Park and Belterra Park. He hasn’t run as fast as Free Rambling Man on the Brisnet Speed rating scale, but trainer John Ortiz wins at a 27% rate with horses dropping multiple levels down the class ladder.

Let’s box Free Rambling Man and Soul Snatcher in the exacta.

Selections

• #6 Free Rambling Man (9-5)
• #2 Soul Snatcher (5-2)
• #4 True Prodigy (5-1)

Wagers

• $15 Exacta: box 2,6 ($30)

Presque Isle Downs: Race 6: Maiden Special Weight (six furlongs on Tapeta, 5:15 p.m. ET)

#9 Make a Million (7-5) is a formidable favorite after finishing fourth, fifth, and fifth in a trio of turf maiden special weights at Ellis Park, Kentucky Downs, and Keeneland. Make a Million figures to find the competition easier at Presque Isle Downs, and it’s worth noting trainer Adam Rice (a 33% winner at Presque Isle this meet) strikes at a 43% rate with horses switching from turf to synthetic.

A $50 win bet is the way we’ll play. With a bit of luck, we’ll more than double our money.

Selections

• #9 Make a Million (7-5)
• #4 Beehavin (8-1)
• #8 Chris’s Kitty (5-1)

Wagers

• $50 to win on #9 Make a Million

Carryover Watch

Keeneland: Race 4: $301,896 Pick 5 carryover (2:36 p.m. ET)

It’s not every day one encounters a non-jackpot carryover worth in excess of $300,000. But it’s not every day the 50-cent Late Pick 5 at Keeneland goes unsolved.

That was the case last Sunday. No one held a winning ticket in the Late Pick 5, triggering a huge $301,896 carryover into Wednesday’s Late Pick 5 sequence.

Bettors searching for a single to build tickets around may turn to race 5, a maiden special weight for fillies and mares racing 1 1/16 miles on turf. Even though a large field has entered (12 in the main body of the field plus four on the also-eligible list), #10 Birdwatching (6-5) is a heavy morning-line favorite after finishing second in each of her first two starts against maiden special weight competition.

The three-year-old daughter of Karakontie finished second by a nose in her debut racing a mile at Tampa Bay Downs on Jan. 20, then returned from a seven-month layoff to miss victory by 1 1/2 lengths in a one-mile contest at Kentucky Downs. Those efforts yielded respectable Brisnet Speed ratings of 82 and 78.

But we can’t recommend singling Birdwatching. Use her, for sure, but only in equal strength with #4 My Brazilian Girl (4-1), a fellow three-year-old filly with fine turf form on her record.

My Brazilian Girl completely misfired in the off-the-turf All Brandy S. at Laurel Park last month, finishing last by a wide margin. But earlier in the summer she ran well in two grass starts. Competing as a maiden in the one-mile Tepin S. at Churchill Downs, My Brazilian Girl gained ground to finish sixth, beaten only 2 1/2 lengths. Then in a 1 1/16-mile maiden special weight at Ellis Park, My Brazilian Girl finished second by half a length.

Those performances produced sharp Brisnet Speed ratings of 86 and 93, topping the numbers owned by Birdwatching. Whatever you do, don’t leave My Brazilian Girl off your tickets.

A better single candidate can be found in race 8, a maiden special weight for two-year-olds dashing 6 1/2 furlongs over the main track. #4 Touchy (8-5) is the horse to beat while dropping into the maiden ranks for the first time, having spent his first two starts competing against stakes company.

Touchy debuted in the 5 1/2-furlong Tremont S. at Saratoga, in which he carved out the pace before staying on to finish second by 1 3/4 lengths. Then in the 6 1/2-furlong Saratoga Special (G2), he ran evenly to finish fourth.

A series of sharp workouts since the Saratoga Special, including a trio of bullet exercises, suggest Touchy is sitting on a winning run while facing easier competition.

Good luck!