Wednesday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Keeneland’s $7,472 Super High 5

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Wednesday, April 10 at Tampa Bay Downs and Will Rogers Downs, along with horses to play in the $7,472 Super High 5 carryover at Keeneland.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Hong Kong 15% Win Bonus: Receive a 15% bonus (up to $25 per day) on your winning single-horse win wagers at Happy Valley (HK) and Sha Tin (HK) every race day from March 24-April 28.
• Keeneland Double Down: Hit two double wagers in a single day at Keeneland to receive a 25% bonus (up to 50% per day) on all winning double wagers for the day, every Wednesday through Friday in April.

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Will Rogers Downs: Race 4: $7,500 Starter Optional Claiming (one mile, 3:36 p.m. ET)

There’s very little speed entered in this five-horse field, so we’ll favor #5 Mumblebee (8-5) in her first start for red-hot trainer Bonnie Birzer, who has gone 7-for-17 (41%) at Will Rogers Downs this meet. Two starts back, Mumblebee tracked the pace in a $10,000 starter allowance racing one mile at Oaklawn Park before tiring to finish fifth.

Mumblebee should find the competition easier at Will Rogers Downs, and if she sets or stalks a modest pace, the daughter of Street Sense may prove impossible to catch. We’ll bet Mumblebee to win and single her to start a double wager.

Selections

• #5 Mumblebee (8-5)
• #1 She’s Gone d’Wild (4-1)
• #3 Fightingtemptation (7-2)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #5 Mumblebee
• $10 Double: 5 with 6
  Total: $30

Tampa Bay Downs: Race 8: $25,000 Maiden Claiming (six furlongs, 3:50 p.m. ET)

Since the start of the year, trainer Kathleen O’Connell has compiled a phenomenal 5-for-11 (45%) record saddling first-time starters at Tampa Bay Downs. Therefore, we’re eager to back O’Connell’s unraced filly #8 Fashionable Kitty (7-2), who has put together a lengthy work tab in preparation for her debut. Wednesday’s field hasn’t come up overly tough on paper, so Fashionable Kitty won’t have to be a superstar to visit the winner’s circle.

A large win bet is in order.

Selections

• #8 Fashionable Kitty (7-2)
• #6 Pleasant Embrace (3-1)
• #1 Awesome Elissa (5-2)

Wagers

• $30 to win on #8 Fashionable Kitty

Will Rogers Downs: Race 5: $7,500 Claiming (one mile, 4:03 p.m. ET)

#6 Noise Complaint (4-1) has shown speed in each of his last two starts at Will Rogers Downs, finishing fourth in a six-furlong allowance and fourth again in a one-mile $25,000 claimer. Descending into a $7,500 claimer that isn’t overly stuffed with other speed horses should make Noise Complaint difficult to catch.

Let’s single Noise Complaint to conclude our double wager, then bet him to win.

Selections

• #6 Noise Complaint (4-1)
• #1 Dr Vinnie Boombatz (4-1)
• #3 Ninety Two (3-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #6 Noise Complaint

Carryover Watch

Keeneland: Race 1: $7,472 Super High 5 carryover (4:44 p.m. ET)

The racing week at Keeneland kicks off with a $7,472 non-jackpot carryover up for grabs in the $1 Super High 5.

The prize pool is available to chase in Race 8, a 1 1/16-mile grass allowance for older horses. An overflow field has turned out, with 12 horses in the main body of the field and two on the also-eligible list. Assuming a dozen horses start, there will be 95,040 possible Super High 5 outcomes to analyze.

Here are three horses we recommend using in the Super High 5:

• #2 Greek Order (7-2): The morning-line favorite cracked the trifecta in all seven of his starts in Great Britain, winning twice against handicap competition over distances of one mile and 1 1/4 miles. He hasn’t run since November, but Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott wins at a 24% rate with horses returning from layoffs of 90 days or more, and at a 30% rate with horses shipping to the United States. With five-time Eclipse Award-winning jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. named to ride, Greek Order should be ready to factor in his stateside debut.
• #3 Deer District (4-1): Although Deer District has shown talent sprinting on dirt, finishing second in the 2023 Amsterdam (G2) at Saratoga, he’s arguably better running long on turf. He ran second in the Kentucky Downs Juvenile Mile S. and Bourbon (G2) on grass as a juvenile, and he recently returned to turf with a respectable third-place finish in a quick one-mile $62,500 allowance optional claimer at Gulfstream Park. A top-five finish is surely within reach.
• #6 Lincoln Highway (15-1): If you draw a line through Lincoln Highway’s two stakes appearances (including one on dirt), his form is respectable. At Keeneland last fall, he launched a nice rally from just off the pace to win a 1 1/16-mile allowance by a neck. Lincoln Highway has turned in four straight five-furlong workouts in preparation for his 2024 debut and has Hall of Fame jockey John Velazquez slated to ride, so there are reasons to believe this 15-1 longshot can outrun expectations in a big way.

Good luck!