Wednesday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Mahoning Valley’s $6,028 Pick 5 carryover

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Wednesday, Oct. 30 at Horseshoe Indianapolis, along with singles for Mahoning Valley’s $6,028 Pick 5 carryover.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• New Players $200 Sign-Up Bonus: Open your TwinSpires.com account using the offer code BET200 to start earning a $200 bonus.
• Hoosier Park $10 Money Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second in any eligible race at Hoosier Park each Wednesday.
• Horseshoe Indianapolis 15% Profit Boost: Receive a 15% boost (up to $25 per day) on your winning win, exacta, trifecta, and superfecta wagers at Horseshoe Indianapolis on Wednesdays in October.
• Churchill Downs $3,000 Three Pick 3 Hit It & Split It: Hit three Pick 3s at Churchill Downs on any day of the fall meet to split a $3,000 daily prize pool, starting Oct. 30.

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 2: Allowance (one mile on turf, 2:41 p.m. ET)

#5 V Max (4-5) has finished second in three straight starts running long over this course and class level, earning improving Brisnet Speed ratings of 67, 71, and 81. The three-year-old gelding isn’t facing the toughest field on Wednesday, so he appears to have found the right spot to break through and secure his second career win.

Let’s single V Max to start a double wager.

Selections

• #5 V Max (4-5)
• #7 Zach (4-1)
• #2 Cadillac Justice (8-1)

Wagers

• $25 Double: 5 with 4

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 3: $40,000 Maiden Claiming (five furlongs on dirt, 3:12 p.m. ET)

#4 Dedos (4-1) is a first-time starter trained by Wesley Ward, who wins at a lofty 33% rate with horses debuting in maiden claimers. A daughter of Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (G1) winner Hootenanny (who sires 26% winners from first-time starters), Dedos has been training at Keeneland and should have every chance to shine while debuting under hot jockey Walter Rodriguez.

At 4-1, a win bet is in order. We’ll also single Dedos to conclude our double wager.

Selections

• #4 Dedos (4-1)
• #6 Fleet Street (9-5)
• #1 Scary Proposition (9-2)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #4 Dedos

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 5: Maiden Special Weight (5 1/2 furlongs on dirt, 4:14 p.m. ET)

#8 Midnight Caper (7-2) suffered a subpar start in her Oct. 15 debut sprinting six furlongs over this track and class level. Nevertheless, she raced in midfield and gained third place in midstretch before tiring to finish fifth out of seven.

That effort earned a 58 Brisnet Speed rating only three points lower than the par winning number (61) for Wednesday’s conditions. If Midnight Caper improves at all in her second start, she can graduate at fair odds.

#3 City Prayers (3-1), runner-up twice over this track, distance, and class level, can complete the exacta.

Selections

• #8 Midnight Caper (7-2)
• #3 City Prayers (3-1)
• #10 Foxy Justice (4-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #8 Midnight Caper
• $5 Exacta: 8 with 3
  Total: $25

Carryover Watch

Mahoning Valley: Race 1: $6,028 Pick 5 carryover (12:55 p.m. ET)

There’s a lot to like about Mahoning Valley’s Pick 5. On days when no one assembles a winning ticket, 50% of the pool carries over to the next day and 50% pays out to bettors who select four out of five winners.

That was the case on Tuesday. The Pick 5 went unsolved, generating a $6,028 carryover for Wednesday, while tickets with four out of five winners cashed to the tune of $354.50. Not a bad consolation.

The catch is that Mahoning Valley’s Pick 5 comes with a $1 minimum bet amount, double the usual 50-cent minimum for Pick 5 bets. Since it’s a pricey wager to play, finding a single or two can help keep costs down for bettors chasing Wednesday’s $6,028 carryover.

One viable option is #6 Justworthashot (8-5) in race 2, a $15,000 maiden claimer for Ohio-bred fillies and mares sprinting six furlongs on dirt. Justworthashot has struggled in five starts against Ohio-bred maiden special weight company, losing by double-digit margins on four occasions.

But in her lone start for a claiming tag, Justworthashot fared much better, setting the pace in a 5 1/2-furlong $16,000 maiden claimer for Ohio-breds before faltering in the final furlong to finish second. Tackling a $15,000 maiden claimer should make Justworthashot tough to catch.

The other single we’ll suggest is #5 Miss Little Bit (7-2) in race 4, a six-furlong dirt maiden special weight for two-year-olds. Miss Little Bit is a filly facing colts and geldings, but that shouldn’t be a major obstacle — last time out, she finished second against males in a 5 1/2-furlong maiden special weight at Thistledown, earning a 65 Brisnet Speed rating that tops Wednesday’s field.

Miss Little Bit has already defeated #8 Picaro (9-5), the morning-line favorite in race 4, so there’s no reason to think she can’t conquer the experienced runners in this field. And since the two first-time starters don’t appear especially likely to win on debut, Miss Little Bit is shaping up as a logical single.

Good luck!