Wednesday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Mandatory-payout $58,109 Pick 5
Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Wednesday, Nov. 27 at Churchill Downs, along with a ticket for the mandatory-payout $58,109 Pick 5 carryover at Parx.
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Best Bets and Quick Picks
Churchill Downs: Race 1: $30,000 Maiden Claiming (1 1/16 miles on dirt, 1:00 p.m. ET)
#1 Global Queen (3-1) didn’t show much when debuting with a seventh-place finish in a six-furlong maiden special weight at Churchill Downs. But that turned out to be a deep contest; the top three finishers all returned to win their next start.
Dropping in class for a $30,000 maiden claimer should help Global Queen challenge for victory in her second start. It helps that she’s picking up jockey Luis Saez, the runaway leading rider at Churchill Downs this meet.
Let’s bet Global Queen on top of an exacta using #4 Fun to Run (5-2) and #2 Scarlet Red Sky (7-2) for second place.
Selections
- #1 Global Queen (3-1)
- #4 Fun to Run (5-2)
- #2 Scarlet Red Sky (7-2)
Wagers
- $15 Exacta: 1 with 2,4 ($30)
Churchill Downs: Race 6: $20,000 Claiming (one mile on dirt, 3:26 p.m. ET)
#1 Feathers Road (5-2) has been competing on turf as of late, recording a bevy of top-four finishers on the New York Racing Association circuit. But he’s also competed well on dirt in the past, cracking the trifecta in four of his eight starts over the surface while earning respectable Brisnet Speed ratings.
Returning to dirt and dropping in class for a $20,000 claimer can put Feathers Road in win contention for the hot jockey/trainer duo of Samuel Camacho Jr. and David Jacobson. Let’s single Feathers Road to start a double wager.
Selections
- #1 Feathers Road (5-2)
- #7 American Memories (3-1)
- #9 Sixwillberich (7-2)
Wagers
- $20 Double: 1 with 3
Churchill Downs: Race 7: Maiden Special Weight (5 1/2 furlongs on dirt, 3:55 p.m. ET)
#3 Barnes (6-5) sold for $3.2 million as a yearling and has been cranking out fast workouts for Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert, who wins at a 30% rate with horses debuting in maiden special weights.
As a son of five-time leading North American sire Into Mischief, who sires 15% winners from first-time starters, Barnes has the pedigree to shine from an early age. Let’s single him to conclude our double wager, then play him on top of an exacta using #6 Innovator (3-1) and #7 Caribbean Dream (7-2) for second place.
Selections
- #3 Barnes (6-5)
- #6 Innovator (3-1)
- #7 Caribbean Dream (7-2)
Wagers
- $15 Exacta: 3 with 6,7 ($30)
Carryover Watch
Parx Racing: Race 6: $58,109 Pick 5 mandatory payout (2:20 p.m. ET)
The 50-cent “Philly Big 5” Pick 5 at Parx Racing will offer a mandatory payout on Wednesday. At the end of racing on Tuesday, the carryover stood at $58,109.
What are mandatory-payout carryovers, and why are they valuable?
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Planning to play? We’re here to help with a proposed ticket and a race-by-race analysis the sequence:
Race 6: Turkey Trot S. (one mile and 70 yards on dirt)
#3 Warrior Johny (5-2) is a deserving favorite; his last two dirt starts yielded fifth-place finishes in the Charles Town Classic (G2) and Lukas Classic (G2), so he’s a serious win threat while dropping in class. But Salvator Mile (G3) third-place finisher #7 Movisitor (7-2) boasts a 5-for-9 record over the Parx main track and has the Brisnet Speed ratings to challenge on his best day. And don’t underestimate #1 Concealed Carry (9-2), a speedster fresh off a win in the one-mile M.P. Ballezzi Appreciation Mile S. at Parx.
Race 7: Let’s Give Thanks S. (6 1/2 furlongs on dirt)
#1 Angkor (9-5), third in the Forego (G1) at Saratoga during the summer, has every chance to shine while taking his game on the road to Parx. But #6 Spikezone (3-1) has posted faster Brisnet Speed ratings while rattling off five consecutive wins at Delaware Park and Laurel Park, and there’s a good chance he’ll spring a mild upset.
Race 8: Pennsylvania Nursery S. (seven furlongs on dirt)
#1 The Boy’s Warrior (8-5) is a must-use contender after opening his career with three daylight victories, including a pair of stakes on the Pennsylvania circuit. But #6 Baby Dukes (2-1) has run a bit faster on the Brisnet Speed rating scale and has a chance to shine while cutting back in distance off a third in the one-mile Rocky Run S. at Delaware Park.
Race 9: Cornucopia S. (6 1/2 furlongs on dirt)
#5 Speedy Traveler (2-1) trounced a seven-furlong $100,000 allowance optional claimer at Churchill Downs last time out and looms as the filly to beat while stepping into the stakes ranks at Parx. But don’t dismiss #2 Bourbon Bon Bay (5-1), who won the Cornucopia last year. She’s eligible to move forward in her second start back from a long layoff.
Race 10: $7,500 Claiming (seven furlongs on dirt)
A highly competitive claimer concludes the Pick 5. We’ll spread deep with #4 So Close So Far (6-1), #5 Rumaway (6-1), #6 Youbetterbejoking (3-1), #7 Tiempo Perfecto (6-1), #8 Ferrari Kid (7-2), #9 Tough Workout (12-1), and #12 Warrior’s Vow (5-1).
- 50-cent Pick 5: 1,3,7 with 1,6 with 1,6 with 2,5 with 4,5,6,7,8,9,12 ($84)
Good luck!
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