Wednesday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Mountaineer’s $1,223 Super High 5 carryover

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Wednesday, Nov. 13 at Horseshoe Indianapolis and Churchill Downs, along with tickets for Mountaineer’s $1,223 Super High 5 carryover.

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• Churchill Downs $3,000 Three Pick 3 Hit It & Split It: Hit three Pick 3s at Churchill Downs on any day of the fall meet to split a $3,000 daily prize pool, starting Oct. 30.
• Tournaments November 25% Bankroll Cash Back: Wager your entire starting tournament bankroll during the duration of selected tournaments throughout November and receive 25% cash back.

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 1: Maiden Special Weight (one mile on dirt, 1:10 p.m. ET)

#1 Don’t Compress (2-5) hasn’t missed the trifecta in three starts sprinting against maiden special weight competition, earning sharp Brisnet Speed ratings of 67, 64, and 65. Those are the three highest numbers in Wednesday’s field.

From a pedigree perspective, Don’t Compress shouldn’t have an issue stretching out over one mile, and the tactical speed she’s displayed in two of her three starts should set the stage for a perfect trip in this largely paceless field.

Let’s bet Don’t Compress over #6 Cool D Or (9-2) in a cold exacta.

Selections

• #1 Don’t Compress (2-5)
• #6 Cool D Or (9-2)
• #5 Dreaming Girl (10-1)

Wagers

• $20 Exacta: 1 with 6

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 3: Maiden Special Weight (one mile on turf, 2:12 p.m. ET)

#10 Zun Reyder (10-1) didn’t show much when debuting in a maiden special weight over the Keeneland turf course, finishing 10th. But that was a 5 1/2-furlong sprint, and the competition tends to be tougher at Keeneland than at Horseshoe Indianapolis.

Switching tracks and stretching out over one mile may trigger a much-improved showing from Zun Reyder. The fact Michelle Nihei has gone 2-for-9 (22%) at Horseshoe Indianapolis this meet adds to the appeal.

Let’s bet Zun Reyder to win and throw in a small exacta using #7 El Oso (20-1) for second place.

Selections

• #10 Zun Reyder (10-1)
• #7 El Oso (20-1)
• #5 Could Do (6-1)

Wagers

• $18 to win on #10 Zun Reyder
• $2 Exacta: 10 with 7
  Total: $20

Churchill Downs: Race 5: $30,000 Maiden Claiming (6 1/2 furlongs on dirt, 2:57 p.m. ET)

#10 Piquant (3-1) struggled in a one-mile maiden special weight over a sloppy track at Churchill Downs last time out, finishing last out of 11. But in his debut two starts back, the well-bred son of Medaglia d’Oro ran a much better fourth in a six-furlong maiden special weight over fast footing.

Dropping down in class and distance can send Piquant to the winner’s circle in his first start as a gelding. It’s worth noting trainer Brad Cox wins at a 32% rate with horses transitioning from maiden special weight to maiden claiming competition.

A win bet is in order.

Selections

• #10 Piquant (3-1)
• #9 Real Conviction (4-1)
• #6 Bonified Crazy (10-1)

Wagers

• $30 to win on #10 Piquant

Carryover Watch

Mountaineer: Race 8: $1,223 Super High 5 carryover (9:55 p.m. ET)

No one solved the Super High 5 on Tuesday evening at Mountaineer, triggering a non-jackpot $1,223 carryover into Wednesday’s card.

The prize pool is on the table in Race 8, a $4,000 claimer for horses who have never won two races. The one-mile and 70-yard dirt test has drawn 13 entries, with a maximum of 10 horses allowed to start.

The morning line favorite is #8 Amani’s Tiger (8-5), and there’s a lot to like about his chances. He broke his maiden during the spring in a $25,000 maiden claimer racing one mile at Parx Racing. Then, following a couple of subpar tries on turf, he switched back to dirt and hit the board in four consecutive $12,500 claimers at Delaware Park and Laurel Park.

Amani’s Tiger recently switched trainers and made his debut for Eddie Clouston (a 19% winner at Mountaineer this meet) in a $4,000 claimer racing one mile on Nov. 3 at Mountaineer. The four-year-old gelding ran well; after dueling for early command and opening up a three-length lead with a quarter-mile remaining, Amani’s Tiger fought on to finish second by 1 3/4 lengths while pulling 15 3/4 lengths clear of the third-place finisher.

With six straight Brisnet Speed ratings in the 71-77 range under his belt, Amani’s Tiger is clearly the horse to beat while sticking to the same track and class level as his latest start. None of his rivals have recently earned a Brisnet Speed rating higher than 70, so we recommend keying Amani’s Tiger on top in the Super High 5.

Who should we use underneath? Certainly #7 American Silver (4-1), who has hit the board in each of his last nine starts, most recently finishing fourth in a $5,000 claimer at Belterra Park. His last three Brisnet Speed ratings have fallen in the 61-65 range, so he stacks up well against #5 El Mic Tiesun (9-2), who posted a 67 when fourth in a $12,500 claimer sprinting seven furlongs at Colonial Downs during the summer.

• $1 Super High 5: 8 with 7 with 3,4,5 with 3,4,5 with 2,3,4,5 ($12)
• $1 Super High 5: 8 with 3,4,5 with 7 with 3,4,5 with 2,3,4,5 ($12)
  Total: $24

Good luck!