Wednesday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Nile Candy can surprise

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Wednesday, Dec. 18 at Turfway Park, including longshots to play in the $4,465 Super High 5 carryover.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• New Players $200 Sign-Up Bonus: Open your TwinSpires.com account using the offer code BET200 to start earning a $200 bonus.
• Tampa Bay Downs 15% Odds Boost: Receive a 15% boost (up to $25 per day) on winning single-horse win bets at Tampa Bay Downs each Wednesday in December.

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Turfway Park: Race 1: $15,000 Maiden Claiming (one mile on Tapeta, 5:55 p.m. ET)

#4 Nile Candy (8-1) couldn’t keep up with blazing fractions of :20.82 and :43.50 when debuting in a five-furlong turf maiden special weight at Horseshoe Indianapolis; she raced off the pace throughout and finished seventh.

Dropping in class, switching to Tapeta, and stretching out over one mile are three major changes that could allow Nile Candy to move forward in a big way. As a daughter of Candy Ride out of a mare by Pioneerof the Nile, she’s bred to relish the longer trip, so let’s try betting Nile Candy to win.

Selections

• #4 Nile Candy (8-1)
• #7 Crowned With Grace (12-1)
• #5 Asteria (4-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #4 Nile Candy

Turfway Park: Race 5: $50,000 Maiden Claiming (one mile on Tapeta, 7:55 p.m. ET)

#7 Geez Eloise (5-2) has shown promise against tougher competition on dirt at Churchill Downs, finishing third by 1 1/4 lengths in a 6 1/2-furlong maiden special weight and fourth by two lengths in a $100,000 maiden claimer.

Trainer Kenny McPeek wins at a 33% rate with horses dropping multiple levels down the class ladder, so descending into a $50,000 maiden claimer should place Geez Eloise in the hunt for victory. It helps that she’s a deep closer who figures to appreciate the often closer-friendly nature of the Turfway Tapeta.

Let’s bet Geez Eloise to win and single her to start a double wager.

Selections

• #7 Geez Eloise (5-2)
• #3 Bread to Run (3-1)
• #12 My Angel Does (12-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #7 Geez Eloise
• $10 Double: 7 with 7
  Total: $30

Turfway Park: Race 6: Maiden Special Weight (1 1/16 miles on Tapeta, 8:25 p.m. ET)

Since 2021, trainer Brad Cox has compiled an excellent 4-for-10 (40%) record debuting juveniles in routes at Turfway Park. This bodes well for Cox’s unraced two-year-old filly #7 Talent Show (4-1).

As a daughter of Maximum Security out of a mare by Curlin, Talent Show has the pedigree to shine racing one mile. A lengthy work tab should have her fit for a competitive debut, so let’s try a win bet on this gray filly.

Selections

• #7 Talent Show (4-1)
• #9 Josie’s Girl (4-1)
• #1 Golden Sunshine (7-2)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #7 Talent Show

Carryover Watch

Turfway Park: Race 9: $4,465 Super High 5 carryover (9:55 p.m. ET)

The ever-elusive $1 Super High 5 at Turfway Park went unsolved last Friday and Saturday, so there’s a double carryover worth $4,465 up for the taking when racing resumes on Wednesday.

The prize pool is available to chase in Race 9, a $5,000 maiden claimer for fillies and mares sprinting six furlongs on Tapeta. An overflow field has entered: 14 horses in total, including two also-eligibles. Assuming a dozen horses start, there will be 95,040 possible Super High 5 outcomes.

Planning to play along, but not sure where to begin? Here are four horses to use on your tickets, including a pair of double-digit longshots:

#2 G’day Lady (20-1): Three-year-old filly G’day Lady has raced three times, finishing second, third, and fourth in a trio of $5,000 maiden claimers sprinting on dirt at Horseshoe Indianapolis. She’s already proven effective over this class level, and who’s to say she won’t improve while trying Tapeta? Horseshoe Indianapolis dirt form often holds up well at Turfway.

#3 Low Key Flex (3-1): If you like G’day Lady, then you have to like Low Key Flex, who finished 7 3/4 lengths clear of G’day Lady when third in a $5,000 claimer at Horseshoe Indianapolis last time out. Trainer Greg Foley wins at a 20% rate with horses switching from dirt to synthetic, so that’s a noteworthy positive in Low Key Flex’s favor.

#4 Captive Star (8-1): Captive Star competed four times in $7,500 maiden claimers at Turfway Park last winter. She finished fifth or better every time. The four-year-old filly exits a respectable fourth-place finish in a $15,000 maiden claimer on turf at Horseshoe Indianapolis and has a strong chance to challenge for a top-five finish while returning to Turfway and dropping in class for a $5,000 maiden claimer.

#5 Came Up Roses (15-1): With only three starts under her belt, Came Up Roses still has upside. She’s finished third in her last two starts against $7,500 maiden claimer competition sprinting six furlongs over the Horseshoe Indianapolis dirt. Switching surfaces and dropping down into a $5,000 maiden claimer can help this three-year-old filly factor for a top-five finish.

Good luck!