Wednesday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Price plays at Turfway

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Wednesday, Dec. 27 at Turfway Park, including horses to play in the $1,923 Super High 5 carryover.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Bayou & Bluegrass 10x Points: Receive 10x reward points on all wagers (excluding show bets) at Fair Grounds and Turfway Park from Nov. 29 through Dec. 31.
• $3,000 Delta Downs Early Pick 5 Hit It & Split It: Hit the early Pick 5 at Delta Downs on Dec. 20 and Dec. 27 to win your share of a $3,000 daily jackpot.

Picks and Plays

Turfway Park: Race 2: $5,000 Maiden Claiming (6 1/2 furlongs on Tapeta, 6:25 p.m. ET)

#7 Lobo Salvaje (5-1) debuted with a respectable third-place finish in a $12,500 maiden claimer sprinting 5 1/2 furlongs over the Horseshoe Indianapolis dirt. That effort was flattered when the runner-up returned to win his next start.

Lobo Salvaje has the pedigree to shine while switching to Tapeta for hot trainer Ismael Bahena (who has gone 8-2-1-2 at Turfway Park this meet), and dropping in class cements Lobo Salvaje as a compelling choice if his 5-1 morning line odds hold up.

A win bet is in order, and we’ll also play a small exacta using longshots #9 Totalitarian (12-1) and #2 Jared the Warrior (10-1) for second place.

Selections

• #7 Lobo Salvaje (5-1)
• #9 Totalitarian (12-1)
• #2 Jared the Warrior (10-1)

Wagers

• $24 to win on #7 Lobo Salvaje
• $3 Exacta: 7 with 2,9 ($6)
  Total: $30

Turfway Park: Race 5: Maiden Special Weight (6 1/2 furlongs on Tapeta, 7:55 p.m. ET)

#6 Onda Brava (10-1) employed rallying tactics to finish second in each of her first two starts sprinting five furlongs over the Horseshoe Indianapolis turf course. She then switched to pacesetting tactics in a five-furlong dirt sprint and didn’t fare as well, weakening to finish fifth.

As a half-sister to Iva, who won the Cincinnati Trophy S. over Turfway Park’s old Polytrack course, Onda Brava is eligible to improve while switching to synthetic, especially if she reverts to closing tactics. At 10-1, she’s worth betting to win and keying over #1 Pin Up Betty (3-1) and #13 Outspoken (7-2) in the exacta, assuming Outspoken draws in off the also-eligible list.

Selections

• #6 Onda Brava (10-1)
• #1 Pin Up Betty (3-1)
• #13 Outspoken (7-2)

Wagers

• $22 to win on #6 Onda Brava
• $4 Exacta: 6 with 1,13 ($8)
  Total: $30

Turfway Park: Race 7: Maiden Special Weight (one mile on Tapeta, 8:55 p.m. ET)

Since 2021, trainer Brad Cox has compiled an excellent 3-for-7 (43%) record debuting juveniles in route races at Turfway Park. This bodes well for Cox’s unraced filly #1 Befriended (3-1), a two-year-old Godolphin homebred daughter of Kentucky Derby (G1) winner Nyquist.

Befriended has put together a strong work tab at Turfway Park highlighted by a bullet half-mile from the starting gate in :47. Under hot apprentice jockey Axel Concepcion (a 44% winner teaming up with Cox over the last two months), Befriended is a logical choice to prevail on debut.

Let’s bet Befriended to win and key her over #7 Argan (10-1) in an exacta. The latter filly, also a daughter of Nyquist, has knocked heads with graded stakes winners like Brightwork and V V’s Dream in her first three starts.

Selections

• #1 Befriended (3-1)
• #7 Argan (10-1)
• #8 Roselee May (7-2)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #1 Befriended
• $5 Exacta: 1 with 7
  Total: $30

Carryover Watch

Turfway Park: Race 9: $1,923 Super High 5 carryover (9:55 p.m. ET)

No one hit the $1 Super High 5 at Turfway Park last Saturday, which means there’s a $1,923 non-jackpot carryover up for grabs when racing resumes at the Kentucky oval on Wednesday.

As usual, the prize pool is available to chase in Race 9, a $7,500 maiden claimer for fillies and mares racing one mile on Tapeta. An overflow field has turned out: 12 horses in the main body of the field, plus one more on the also-eligible list. Assuming a dozen horses face the starter, there will be 95,040 possible Super High 5 outcomes to consider.

That said, constructing tickets doesn’t have to be overly complicated. The two morning line favorites, #12 Esme (5-2) and #9 Mikita (3-1), bring strong credentials to the table. There’s a good chance one or the other will win, and it seems probable both will finish in the top five, so we recommend assembling Super High 5 tickets accordingly.

Esme spent her first five starts competing against maiden special weight competition over the Tapeta track at Woodbine, most notably running second and third in a pair of 1 1/16-mile contests. Then, following a one-year layoff, she returned on Dec. 2 in a $30,000-$20,000 maiden claimer racing one mile at Turfway. Making her first start for high-percentage trainer Jonathan Thomas, Esme settled behind a pedestrian pace before passing a couple of rivals to finish seventh by 6 3/4 lengths.

The final quarter-mile of that race elapsed in a quick :24.26, so Esme was compromised by the slow early/fast late race shape. Thomas wins at a 30% rate with horses running for the second time under his care, so if Esme gets a better setup while dropping down the class ladder and picking up hot apprentice jockey Axel Concepcion (who rides with a five-pound weight allowance), she can vie for victory.

As for Mikita, she exits a fourth-place finish (beaten 4 1/4 lengths) in a $20,000 maiden claimer racing one mile on dirt at Churchill Downs. The daughter of Nyquist brings sharp Brisnet Speed ratings to the table and should appreciate dropping in class for a $7,500 maiden claimer. Switching surfaces can also help her chances; it’s worth noting trainer Gregory Foley wins at a 36% rate with horses switching from dirt to synthetic, which is even higher than his 25% strike rate with horses dropping multiple levels down the class ladder.

Good luck!