Wednesday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Saratoga’s $107,470 Pick 6 carryover

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Wednesday, Aug. 14, at Horseshoe Indianapolis and Saratoga, including a horse to single in Saratoga’s $107,470 Pick 6 carryover.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Hoosier Park $10 Money Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second in any eligible race at Hoosier Park every Wednesday in July.

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 2: maiden special weight (5 1/2 furlongs on dirt, 2:41 p.m. ET)

Trainer Paulo Lobo has debuted three juveniles on dirt at Horseshoe Indianapolis this year. Two visited the winner’s circle and the other finished third.

This impressive success rate suggests #6 Plaza Beach (9-2) is poised to shine in her first start. Plaza Beach has turned in nine timed workouts in preparation for her debut, including a quick half-mile from the starting gate in :49. Her 9-2 morning-line odds are appealing, so let’s bet Plaza Beach to win.

Selections

• #6 Plaza Beach (9-2)
• #3 Warrior’s Justice (8-5)
• #2 Clay Basket (7-2)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #6 Plaza Beach

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 5: maiden special weight (one mile on turf, 4:14 p.m. ET)

#8 Redhotjustice (9-5) is the morning-line favorite to win this maiden special weight for Indiana-bred fillies and mares, but her 0-for-10 record is cause for pause. In her most recent turf start, she finished 1 1/2 lengths behind #3 Kennedy Heights (5-2).

That meeting came last October, when Kennedy Heights and Redhotjustice finished second and third over the same course, distance, and class level as Wednesday’s contest. 

Kennedy Heights has been rested since then and is eligible to move forward in her first start of 2024. It helps that trainer John Langemeier has compiled a stellar 7-for-17 (41%) record at Horseshoe Indianapolis this meet.

Let’s bet Kennedy Heights to win and key her over Redhotjustice in the exacta.

Selections

• #3 Kennedy Heights (5-2)
• #8 Redhotjustice (9-5)
• #7 Signature Day (7-2)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #3 Kennedy Heights
• $5 Exacta: 3 with 8
  Total: $25

Saratoga: Race 5: Suzie O’Cain S. (1 1/16 miles on turf, 3:26 p.m. ET)

#1 Brocknardini (8-1) misfired in her 2024 debut, finishing fifth in the Boiling Springs S. at Monmouth Park after fighting her rider and racing closer to the early pace than usual. 

This daughter of Palace Malice fared better with rallying tactics last year, smashing a 1 1/16-mile maiden special weight against New York-breds at Saratoga and later beating non-state-restricted competition in Laurel Park’s Selima S.

If Brocknardini rates kindly while returning to the New York-bred ranks for the Suzie O’Cain, she can bounce back in a big way under new jockey Flavien Prat, a 21% winner at Saratoga this meet. Let’s take a shot betting Brocknardini to win.

Selections

• #1 Brocknardini (8-1)
• #6 Awesome Czech (5-2)
• #2 Summer Whirl (3-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #1 Brocknardini

Carryover Watch

Saratoga: Race 4: $107,470 Pick 6 carryover (2:52 p.m. ET)

It isn’t every Wednesday bettors get to chase a six-figure, non-jackpot Pick 6 carryover, but Saratoga is always full of fantastic betting opportunities, and Wednesday’s card at the New York oval is highlighted by a $107,470 carryover in the $1 Pick 6.

A challenging sequence awaits. Before scratches, five of the six races contain at least 10 horses. Even once you exclude also-eligible entrants from consideration, there are more than 750,000 possible Pick 6 outcomes to analyze.

It’s hard to find a single in a sequence this competitive, but we’ll take a shot in race 4, the opening leg of the Pick 6. It’s a maiden special weight for fillies and mares racing one mile on dirt, and there’s a lot to like about #5 Helcia (7-2), the third choice on the morning line.

A daughter of champion and Preakness (G1) winner Bernardini, Helcia started three times as a two-year-old last year. After running fifth in her debut sprinting six furlongs at Aqueduct, she stretched out for a pair of one-mile maiden special weights at Aqueduct, finishing fourth and second while earning Brisnet Speed ratings of 80 and 84.

Helcia hasn’t run since, but hot trainer Chad Brown (a 23% winner at Saratoga this meet) strikes at a 26% rate with horses returning from layoffs of 90 days or more, so Helcia should be fit for a competitive showing off the break. 

She’s one of only two fillies in Wednesday’s field to have cracked the 80 Brisnet Speed plateau, and she’s the only one to have done so twice. It’s going to be tough to defeat Helcia if she improves in her three-year-old debut.

And there are definitely reasons to believe Helcia can improve. Simply gaining nine months of maturity since her last start should make a difference. And she’s slated to race with Lasix for the first time, a 28% winning move for Brown.

Throw in the fact she’ll be guided by hot jockey Flavien Prat (a 32% winner teaming up with Brown over the last two months), and Helcia is a compelling non-favored single to start the Pick 6.

Good luck!