Wednesday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Tampa’s $26,569 Pick 5 carryover

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Wednesday, Jan. 3 at Turfway Park, along with a horse to single in the $26,569 Pick 5 carryover at Tampa Bay Downs.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• 10x Points on Harness Racing: Earn 10x reward points on all harness racing wagers (excluding show bets) every Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday during the month of January.

Picks and Plays

Turfway Park: Race 1: $7,500 Claiming (one mile on Tapeta, 5:55 p.m. ET)

#4 Cinderella Story (8-1) has run well in recent starts against $12,500 claiming competition over the Horseshoe Indianapolis dirt. On Aug. 22, she finished second behind a next-out winner, earning a 71 Brisnet Speed rating. She matched that number when finishing third on Sept. 29, a race from which the runner-up returned to win.

Those 71 Brisnet Speed ratings fit well against Wednesday’s field, so Cinderella Story is eligible to challenge while dropping in class at Turfway Park. At 8-1, she’s worth betting to win.

Selections

• #4 Cinderella Story (8-1)
• #7 Athenais (2-1)
• #3 Lucky Ana (7-2)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #4 Cinderella Story

Turfway Park: Race 2: $50,000 Maiden Claiming (6 1/2 furlongs on Tapeta, 6:25 p.m. ET)

#3 High Fashion Kate (9-2) has knocked heads with quality maiden special weight competition at Ellis Park and Churchill Downs. Last time out, she set the pace in a 1 1/16-mile maiden special weight over the Churchill turf before fading to finish eighth behind next-out Jessamine (G2) winner Buchu.

Switching to Tapeta and dropping in class for a $50,000 maiden claimer can place High Fashion Kate in the hunt for victory at enticing odds. It helps that she owns the two highest Brisnet Speed ratings in Wednesday’s field.

Selections

• #3 High Fashion Kate (9-2)
• #10 Waggle Pass (12-1)
• #11 Bruhaha (5-1)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #3 High Fashion Kate

Turfway Park: Race 8: $25,000 Allowance Optional Claiming (one mile on Tapeta, 9:25 p.m. ET)

#4 Queridinha Leca (10-1) disappointed in an $80,000 allowance optional claimer racing 1 1/4 miles over the Churchill Downs dirt last month, finishing sixth. But that was a slow early/fast late race over a distance possibly farther than Queridinha Leca wants to run.

Two starts back, Queridinha Leca rallied to finish second by a nose in a 1 1/16-mile $40,000 allowance optional claimer over the Horseshoe Indianapolis turf. And last winter, she finished third (beaten 1 1/4 lengths) in a one-mile $50,000 allowance optional claimer over the Turfway Tapeta. Returning to Turfway and dropping into a $25,000 allowance optional claimer should suit Queridinha Leca just fine, giving her a chance to upset the logical Brad Cox-trained favorite #2 Methodology (5-2).

A win bet with an exacta is the way we’ll play.

Selections

• #4 Queridinha Leca (10-1)
• #2 Methodology (5-2)
• #9 Por Una Cabeza (15-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #4 Queridinha Leca
• $5 Exacta: 4 with 2
  Total: $25

Carryover Watch

Tampa Bay Downs: Race 5: $26,569 Pick 5 carryover (2:30 p.m. ET)

The first card of 2024 at Tampa Bay Downs is highlighted by a $26,569 non-jackpot carryover in the 50-cent Late Pick 5. Talk about an enticing way to kick off the new year!

The sequence spans Race 5 through Race 9, encompassing 56 horses (averaging 11.2 per race) and 155,232 possible outcomes. If you’re thinking, “Wow, that’s tough for a Pick 5,” rest assured nine of the 56 horses are also-eligible entrants. Once scratches are announced, there should be at most 72,000 possible outcomes to analyze, with no field containing more than 10 horses.

In searching for a viable single to build tickets around, some bettors might be drawn to #5 Ehsaan (7-5), the heavy favorite in Race 5. The opening leg of the Pick 5 is a $32,000 maiden claimer for three-year-olds racing one mile on turf, and Ehsaan is a logical contender after debuting in a maiden special weight at Tampa Bay Downs. He’s adding Lasix for hot trainer Jamie Ness and should appreciate dropping in class.

But here’s the problem: Ehsaan’s first start came in a 6 1/2-furlong dirt sprint. There’s no guarantee he’ll relish switching to turf and stretching out around two turns, which makes him at least a little risky to single in the Pick 5. Rivals like #6 Purple Aura (4-1) and #4 Aloha Man (10-1), who have experience racing two turns on turf, could be upset threats.

A better single candidate can be found in Race 6, a $10,000 claimer for fillies and mares racing one mile and 40 yards on dirt. Most of the entrants have struggled to routinely crack the 80 Brisnet Speed rating plateau, but #7 Kaeko (9-5) has exceeded that mark in three of her last four starts, earning numbers of 82, 82, and 84 while finishing second, third, and first in $16,000 and $20,000 starter optional claiming sprints at Gulfstream Park.

Kaeko’s most recent start running long on dirt saw her obliterate a one-mile $6,250 claimer at Gulfstream Park by 14 1/2 lengths over a next-out winner, so stretching out from a sprint to a route at Tampa Bay Downs shouldn’t be an issue. Throw in the fact jockey Miguel Vasquez and trainer Jose D’Angelo have won at a 42% rate teaming up together over the last two months, and Kaeko is shaping up as a viable Pick 5 single.

Good luck!