Wednesday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Turfway Park opening day

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Wednesday, Dec. 4 at Turfway Park, along with a ticket for the $2,369 Super High 5 carryover at Tampa Bay Downs.

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• New Players $200 Sign-Up Bonus: Open your TwinSpires.com account using the offer code BET200 to start earning a $200 bonus.
• Tournaments December 25% Bankroll Cash Back: Wager your entire starting tournament bankroll during the duration of selected tournaments throughout December and receive 25% cash back.
• Tampa Bay Downs 15% Odds Boost: Receive a 15% boost (up to $25 per day) on winning single-horse win bets at Tampa Bay Downs each Wednesday in December.
• Hong Kong Racing 15% Odds Boost: Receive a 15% boost (up to $25 per day) on winning single-horse win bets at Happy Valley (HK) and Sha Tin (HK) on Wednesday, Dec. 4 and Sunday, Dec. 8.

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Turfway Park: Race 1: $30,000 Maiden Claiming (6 1/2 furlongs on Tapeta, 5:55 p.m. ET)

#1 Fly J’s Funtastic (6-1) hasn’t cracked the trifecta in four starts against maiden special weight competition, two on turf and two on dirt. But dropping into a $30,000 maiden claimer and switching to Tapeta opens the door for improvement. It’s worth noting trainer William Stinson Jr. has gone 2-for-5 (40%) in maiden claiming races over the past few years.

Fly J’s Funtastic’s 6-1 morning line odds are enticing, so let’s bet him to win.

Selections

• #1 Fly J’s Funtastic (6-1)
• #3 Livehappy (7-2)
• #10 Snow King (4-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #1 Fly J’s Funtastic

Turfway Park: Race 2: $5,000 Claiming (one mile on Tapeta, 6:25 p.m. ET)

#6 Cheesesteak (15-1) broke his maiden in a one-mile $15,000 maiden claimer over the Turfway Park Tapeta last winter. More recently, he rallied to finish third in a $7,500 claimer sprinting six furlongs over the Horseshoe Indianapolis main track.

Returning to Turfway and descending into a $5,000 claimer should allow Cheesesteak to produce a competitive showing at enticing odds. A win bet is in order.

Selections

• #6 Cheesesteak (15-1)
• #3 Mr. Faversham (3-1)
• #8 Tiverton (8-5)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #6 Cheesesteak

Turfway Park: Race 5: Maiden Special Weight (one mile on Tapeta, 7:55 p.m. ET)

#1 Cocktail Kisses (6-1) has knocked heads with some quality foes in her first two starts against maiden special weight competition on dirt at Churchill Downs. She wasn’t particularly competitive either time, finishing sixth and fifth, but the competition figures to be easier at Turfway Park.

Since Hall of Fame trainer Mark Casse wins at a lofty 25% rate with horses switching from dirt to synthetic, a win bet on Cocktail Kisses is warranted.

Selections

• #1 Cocktail Kisses (6-1)
• #2 Bembridge Ledge (3-1)
• #3 Tarragon (10-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #1 Cocktail Kisses

Carryover Watch

Tampa Bay Downs: Race 3: $2,369 Super High 5 carryover (1:30 p.m. ET)

There’s a $2,369 Super High 5 carryover up for grabs in Wednesday’s third race at Tampa Bay Downs. But winning a share won’t be easy.

Race 3 is an $8,000 claimer for fillies and mares who have never won three races. Nine horses have entered the one-mile and 40-yard dirt contest, which means there are 15,120 possible outcomes. It’s not an unmanageable number, but the wide-open nature of the field makes sorting out the key contenders difficult.

Morning line favorite #9 Numeric (5-2) exemplifies the challenges. Back in April at Tampa Bay Downs, the five-year-old mare won an $8,000 claimer for non-winners of two races by six lengths. But three subsequent starts against $8,000 company on dirt at Gulfstream Park have yielded a second, a fourth, and a third. Numeric clearly fits well at this class level, and she may well prevail while returning to Tampa Bay Downs. But while a top-three finish appears probable, victory isn’t guaranteed.

Some bettors may choose to support #2 Spunforfun (4-1), who finished second in a $12,500 claimer at Monmouth Park during the summer. But Spunforfun subsequently misfired while dropping into a $5,000 claimer for non-winners of three races, finishing last out of seven as the 1-10 favorite. Can she rebound at Tampa Bay Downs, where she dominated a $32,000 maiden claimer last spring? Maybe, but it’s hard to say.

#6 Afilada (3-1) must be respected. Following a long series of competitive showings against tougher competition at Aqueduct, Afilada shipped to Monmouth Park and trounced a $7,500 claimer by six lengths. But she hasn’t raced in 6 1/2 months, so the layoff is at least a small question mark. On the bright side, she was claimed out of the Monmouth contest by high-percentage trainer Jorge Delgado, a 28% winner with new claiming acquisitions and a 22% winner with horses returning from layoffs of 90 days or more.

Ultimately, we’ll favor the chances of Numeric and Afilada, boxing them to finish first and second while spreading deeper underneath:

• $1 Super High 5: 6,9 with 6,9 with 2,5,7 with 2,4,5,7 with 2,3,4,5,7 ($54)

Good luck!