Wednesday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Turfway’s $11,566 Super High 5 carryover

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Wednesday, Dec. 11 at Mahoning Valley and Turfway Park, including horses to play in Turfway’s $11,566 Super High 5 carryover.

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• Tampa Bay Downs 15% Odds Boost: Receive a 15% boost (up to $25 per day) on winning single-horse win bets at Tampa Bay Downs each Wednesday in December.

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Mahoning Valley: Race 3: Allowance (six furlongs on dirt, 1:40 p.m. ET)

#5 Perfect Shances (6-5) was last seen finishing seventh by 6 1/4 lengths in a deep edition of the Royal Palm Juvenile Fillies S. sprinting five furlongs on turf at Gulfstream Park. The top two finishers, Bullet and You Need Me, both returned to win their next start.

Prior to the Royal Palm Juvenile Fillies, Perfect Shances led all the way to win a 4 1/2-furlong maiden special weight over the Keeneland dirt. Getting back on dirt for a Mahoning Valley allowance should make Perfect Shances tough to beat for trainer Wesley Ward, whose stellar 7-for-12 (58%) record at Mahoning since 2022 includes a 2-for-2 tally at the current meet.

We’ll look for either #2 Streets of War (7-2) or #3 Starofthegame (12-1) to complete the exacta.

Selections

• #5 Perfect Shances (6-5)
• #2 Streets of War (7-2)
• #3 Starofthegame (12-1)

Wagers

• $22 Exacta: 5 with 2
• $8 Exacta: 5 with 3
  Total: $30

Turfway Park: Race 1: $15,000 Maiden Claiming (six furlongs on Tapeta, 5:55 p.m. ET)

#3 Scary Proposition (8-1) showed some potential when debuting in a five-furlong, $40,000 maiden claimer on dirt at Horseshoe Indianapolis, rallying to finish fourth.

Trainer William Morey wins at a 27% rate with horses dropping multiple levels down the class ladder, so descending into a $15,000 maiden claimer while switching to Tapeta should help Scary Proposition challenge under hot jockey Gerardo Corrales, a 26% winner to start the Turfway Park meet.

#7 Catalog Queen (5-1) is another compelling contender. She finished sixth in her debut on dirt in a 5 1/2-furlong maiden special weight at Hawthorne but has since breezed a bullet half-mile from the Turfway starting gate in :46 4/5, suggesting she has a fondness for Tapeta. Trainer Larry Rivelli has gone 5-for-6 (83%) to start the Turfway meet, so Catalog Queen must be respected.

Let’s box Scary Proposition and Catalog Queen in the exacta, then use them both to start a double wager.

Selections

• #3 Scary Proposition (8-1)
• #7 Catalog Queen (5-1)
• #9 Jane Payne (3-1)

Wagers

• $5 Exacta: box 3,7 ($10)
• $5 Double: 3,7 with 4 ($10)
  Total: $20

Turfway Park: Race 2: $5,000 Claiming (six furlongs on Tapeta, 6:25 p.m. ET)

#4 Steel Link (7-2) showed speed in a pair of maiden special weights at Turfway Park last winter before tiring to record eighth-place finishes. Tackling a $5,000 claimer in his return to Turfway should produce a more competitive showing.

Last time out, Steel Link scored by three lengths in a $12,500 maiden claimer sprinting 5 1/2 furlongs at Colonial Downs. That followed a third-place finish in a $20,000 maiden claimer at Horseshoe Indianapolis, so we know Steel Link is in good form.

We’ll single Steel Link to conclude our double wager, then bet him to win.

Selections

• #4 Steel Link (7-2)
• #1 Cog (15-1)
• #2 Stunnem (8-1)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #4 Steel Link

Carryover Watch

Turfway Park: Race 9: $11,566 Super High 5 carryover (9:55 p.m. ET)

It’s been a week since the Turfway Park Holiday Meet kicked off. Four racing days have elapsed, and not once have bettors managed to solve the $1 Super High 5 offered on the final race each day.

As a result, there’s a quadruple carryover worth $11,566 up for grabs in Wednesday’s ninth race at Turfway. If you can select the top five finishers in order, you’ll likely be rewarded with a lucrative payoff.

Race 9 is a $7,500 maiden claimer taking place over one mile on Tapeta. An overflow field of 14 horses, including two also-eligibles, has entered, but morning-line favorites #9 Photo Op (3-1) and #11 Third Degree (7-2) look solid.

Photo Op is dropping in class after finishing fourth in a $20,000 maiden claimer on dirt at Churchill Downs. Digging deeper into his past performances, Photo Op started three times over the Turfway Park Tapeta track between December 2023 and March 2024, finishing fourth and seventh in maiden special weights before running fifth in a $30,000 maiden claimer.

Those Turfway efforts yielded Brisnet Speed ratings of 79, 72, and 72, dancing around the par winning number (75) for Wednesday’s conditions. In other words, returning to Turfway while dropping into a $7,500 maiden claimer might be exactly what Photo Op needs to deliver victory under hot jockey Gerardo Corrales.

As for Third Degree, he’s yet to race over the Turfway Tapeta, but his last two tries on turf have been respectable. The stretch-running four-year-old finished fourth by 1 3/4 lengths in a $16,000 maiden claimer at Colonial Downs, then dropped into a $10,000 maiden claimer over the same course and finished second by half a length.

Third Degree has been freshened since the beginning of September, a positive since trainer Jesus Cruz wins at a lofty 39% rate with horses returning from layoffs of 90 days or more.

Since Photo Op and Third Degree both appear poised to run well, we recommend building Super High 5 tickets around them, counting on one to win and the other to finish in the top three.

Good luck!