What the 2020 Kentucky Derby taught us about historical handicapping trends

Historical trends can be powerful tools for handicapping horse races, especially graded stakes. History tends to repeat itself, with the same types of horses (or the same trainers, or the same jockeys) winning major races time and time again.

But it’s important to differentiate between trends with meaning and trends generated by circumstances. Does the trend you’re seeing exist because it is a powerful angle? Or does the trend exist because it is the logical outcome for a given situation?

The 2020 Kentucky Derby (G1) at Churchill Downs provided a unique opportunity to test one prominent handicapping trend.

No race in North American receives more scrutiny from a historical perspective than the Kentucky Derby. Horseplayers annually dissect the race from every angle and dive through depths of data to churn up treasure troves of historical handicapping trends.

One golden rule of Kentucky Derby handicapping requires win candidates to run in a prep race less than six weeks prior to the Derby. Between 1956 and 2019, only one Kentucky Derby winner (Animal Kingdom in 2011) entered the race off a six-week layoff, and none prevailed off a layoff longer than six weeks. A prep race within five weeks or so of the Kentucky Derby was practically a prerequisite to visit the winner’s circle.

Then COVID-19 came along, the 2020 Kentucky Derby was postponed by four months, and prep schedules were thrown into disarray. Horses were qualifying to the Kentucky Derby months in advance of the race, which allowed their trainers to formulate outside-the-box strategies to approach the Derby.

So what happened? The Kentucky Derby was won by Authentic, who hadn’t run since he won the Haskell S. (G1) seven weeks prior.

Authentic’s victory hinted at a greater truth — the statistic warning against layoffs of six weeks or more was never as meaningful as it seemed. It was instead the logical result of major Kentucky Derby prep races (prestigious and lucrative events in their own right) taking place three, four, and five weeks prior to the Derby. Thus, the majority of Derby starters each year fit the “trend” and allowed it to continue largely uninterrupted for decades.

But when COVID-19 shook up the calendar and placed a major race like the Haskell seven weeks out from the Derby, we were naturally going to see talented horses (like Authentic) head into the Derby off longer-than-usual layoffs. It would have been easy to view these extended breaks as detrimental, but the concerns about layoffs may never have been warranted at all.

Times change. Circumstances change. A century ago, it wasn’t uncommon for horses to win the Kentucky Derby in their first start of the season!

So, the next time you see a historical handicapping trend, ask yourself, is this trend actually meaningful? Or is it exactly the outcome one would expect, based on the circumstances involved? Answer accurately, and you won’t have to worry about betting (or opposing) horses based on data that doesn’t hold up to closer scrutiny.