Which horse should you bet in the Sam F. Davis Stakes?

The $250,000 Sam F. Davis S. (G3) at Tampa Bay Downs dates back to 1981 and will celebrate its 40th anniversary Saturday. A suitably strong field has been entered for the 2021 renewal, which awards the winner 10 qualification points on the Road to the Kentucky Derby.

There are plenty of logical contenders in the 1 1/16-mile race. Some bettors will favor #9 Candy Man Rocket, a flashy maiden winner sprinting six furlongs at Gulfstream Park last month. Others will prefer the encouraging form lines of #8 Smiley Sobotka, who has been freshened since he finished second in the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) last fall.

But I plan to oppose both Candy Man Rocket and Smiley Sobotka, with #3 Known Agenda. While his record isn’t as flashy at first glance, I’m confident the son of Curlin has the credentials to win.

Considering the following:

• Known Agenda hasn’t missed the trifecta in three starts against tough company. After he finished second in his debut, behind next-out Nyquist S. winner Highly Motivated, Known Agenda broke his maiden racing 1 1/8 miles at Aqueduct, where he defeated future Holy Bull (G3) winner Greatest Honour by a head.
• Known Agenda failed to seriously challenge when he finished third over a sloppy track in the Dec. 5 Remsen (G2) at Aqueduct, his most recent start. However, I don't believe Known Agenda handled the off track, so the fact that he still posted a 96 Brisnet Speed rating (one of the highest figures in the Sam F. Davis field) is impressive.

• Known Agenda has been breezing strongly at Palm Beach Downs for trainer Todd Pletcher, a six-time winner of the Sam F. Davis. On Jan. 23, Known Agenda sped five furlongs in a bullet :59 4/5.
• Known Agenda has enough tactical speed to work out a clean trip from post 3, and his proven tractability will come in handy if a fast pace unfolds.

A win bet on Known Agenda will be our first order of business, since the large field should ensure he starts at a fair price. We’ll also play him on top of a trifecta, in which we’ll try to beat Smiley Sobotka underneath.

$18 to win on #3 Known Agenda
$1 trifecta: 3 with 1,9,10 with 1,8,9,10,11 ($12)
Total: $30

Good luck!