Which horses should you avoid betting in the 2020 Kentucky Derby?

In the days leading up to the Kentucky Derby (G1), you can read dozens of articles telling you which horses to bet. But it is arguably just as helpful to know which horses you shouldn’t bet.

Eliminating horses can cut down on cost when playing exotic wagers, like the superfecta or Pick 4.

Fortunately, there are a couple of tried-and-true Kentucky Derby handicapping rules that can help identify horses facing difficult tasks at Churchill Downs.

Long layoffs are rarely successful

Since at least 1929, only two Kentucky Derby winners entered the Run for the Roses off a layoff of six weeks or more. Needles (1956) and Animal Kingdom (2011) rested for exactly six weeks before they secured their Derby titles, but no horse in the last 90 years or so has won the roses off a longer break.

The restructuring of the 2020 racing calendar, because of the COVID-19 pandemic, has thrown traditional prep schedules out the window, so perhaps the layoff standard will hold less weight this year.

But if you want to follow one of the oldest rules of Kentucky Derby handicapping, then #1 Finnick the Fierce (eight weeks), #3 Enforceable (eight weeks), #5 Major Fed (8 1/2 weeks), #6 King Guillermo (18 weeks), #9 Mr. Big News (eight weeks), #12 Sole Volante (11 weeks), #16 Ny Traffic (seven weeks), #18 Authentic (seven weeks), and even #7 Money Moves (six weeks) should all be viewed skeptically as win contenders.

Avoid horses who finished off the board in their final prep

When horses finish off the board in their final Kentucky Derby prep race, they rarely rebound to reach the winner’s circle at Churchill Downs. The last horse to engineer such a sharp form reversal was Iron Liege, who parlayed a fifth-place effort in the 1957 Derby Trial into victory in the Kentucky Derby.

With more than six decades of history supporting this trend, bettors are advised to steer clear of horses who finished fifth or worse in their final prep run.

That would eliminate #1 Finnick the Fierce (seventh in the Blue Grass), #9 Mr. Big News (sixth in the Blue Grass), #12 Sole Volante (sixth in the Belmont Stakes), and #14 Winning Impression (seventh in the Ellis Park Derby) from consideration as win candidates.