Who offered fair odds in the Kentucky Derby Future Wager Pool 1?

Kentucky Derby Future Wager Pool 1 closed December 1, and already we’re starting to get a feel for which horses offered good value and which runners may have been priced too short.

The $200,000 Los Alamitos Futurity (G2) at Los Alamitos attracted four horses who were offered as individual betting interests in the first future pool. Two of them made their Derby prices look appealing, while the other two tossed up red flags with disappointing performances.

Which horses offered good wagering value, and which horses did not?

Good value

Thousand Words (34-1)

Bettors who accepted 34-1 on Thousand Words—a maiden winner with just one run under his belt—were largely banking on Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert’s reputation as a five-time Derby winner. Thousand Words promptly made 34-1 look like a bargain, when he fought his way to a tenacious victory in the Los Alamitos Futurity. The insightful gamblers who put down cash on Thousand Words are looking at a potential $70.20 payoff on a colt who heads into winter as one of the Derby favorites.

Anneau d’Or (31-1)

Anneau d’Or picked up another four Kentucky Derby qualification points with his close, runner-up effort in the Los Alamitos Futurity. Considering he didn’t get the cleanest trip, behind runners early on over a messy, sealed track, this was an encouraging performance from a colt who had previously finished second in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1). His 31-1 odds look like a fair price.

Poor value

High Velocity (40-1)

High Velocity carved out fast fractions in the Los Alamitos Futurity, but Thousand Words and Anneau d’Or were always close behind, and High Velocity came up empty when it counted. His 5 1/4-length defeat hints he might be better running shorter rather than longer, and 40-1 is looking like a slim price, when you consider Los Alamitos Futurity winner Thousand Words was available to play at 34-1.

Wrecking Crew (86-1)

Maybe he didn’t care for the wet track, but Wrecking Crew was never a serious factor in the Los Alamitos Futurity. He faded on the far turn and was eased in the homestretch. He was previously no match for Anneau d’Or in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, and Wrecking Crew’s overall race record suggests he might be best as a sprinter/miler. Bettors who played him at 86-1 will have to hope he turns a corner this winter.

Find all the latest Kentucky Derby odds and information in BetAmerica's 2020 Kentucky Derby catalog.